It's coming down to the wire in Iowa- Gold Standard Selzer Poll- HRC 42% SBS 40%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

“I will take the Des Moines Register poll, which is the gold standard for polls in Iowa."

-Bernie Sanders

Clinton, who has been the favorite all along, now leads Sanders by just 2 percentage points in The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll. That’s down from 9 percentage points a month ago.

Clinton is now the top choice of 42 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, compared with Sanders’ 40 percent, the poll finds. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/01/14/iowa-poll-clinton-slides-leads-sanders-2-points/78738770/

[iandhr]

1. Prediction

Clinton wins Iowa. Sanders wins New Hampshire.

[Motown_Johnny]

7. I still think Sanders wins both.

Hillary's support is dropping fast.

Enthusiasm plays a big part in the caucus contests and I believe Bernie's supporter have the enthusiasm.

Two weeks is plenty of time to more than close the gap, if one really does still exist.


Besides that, this whole Single Payer fight is bad for Hillary. She went negative and got caught lying. This will just help reinforce the already established trend in Bernie's direction.


But only time will tell.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

20. Enthusiasm - bad weather and Clinton goes down

looks like she might anyway

[Motown_Johnny]

22. A caucus system tends to help the campaign with enthusiastic supporters anyways.

I think Bernie may over perform in Iowa because of this.

Maybe I am kidding myself but that is where my thinking is at this point.

Only time will tell.

[virtualobserver]

2. does this poll reassure you?

it encourages me

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I don't require assurance or reassurance, do you?

Thank you in advance.

Respectfully,
DSB

[Motown_Johnny]

8. All human beings require assurance or reassurance in one form or another.

I think this is just one more thing you are kidding yourself about.

[Blue_Adept]

15. Not all of us are emotionally involved

Some of us look at it objectively and just enjoy the data/statistics side of it.

[Motown_Johnny]

16. I was making a general statement, not directly referring to politics.

That should have been obvious if you were looking at my statement objectively.

[virtualobserver]

19. Of course I do. I hope that Bernie will win but I like feedback that indicates that it is happening

This poll is encouraging.

[Betty Karlson]

4. So Sanders and Clinton are, taking the MOE into account, in a statistical deadheat?

In other words, their chances of winning are statistically speaking 50 / 50?

Go Bernie!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. For my thoughts on your observations please see the linked posts.

Since your replied to me, here are my thoughts on the dialectic you are encouraging me to enter into:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511005947#post3

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1005846


Thank you in advance.



Always respectfully,
DSB


P.S. Thank you for your input.

[earthside]

5. 'Let the Sandersization process begin!'

The momentum is Sanders direction -- the issues favor Sanders.

The heavy hand of the corporate Democratic Party-Clinton Machine has been coming down hard ... but the regular folks are pushing back.

Too much Clintons!

[Betty Karlson]

10. When the results come in, it will BERN in Des Moines!

[Kentonio]

9. This is the poll I've been waiting for.

Within the margin of error with still time to go and the momentum all behind Bernie. Couldn't really ask for any more than that.

[riversedge]

11. Islands of college-town support could hurt Sanders--And how delegates are counted.

Interesting things about Iowa this time around.



Islands of college-town support could hurt Sanders

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/14/sanders-could-be-hurt-by-concentration-of-young-fans/78741864/


Tony Leys, [e-mail] 5:13 a.m. CST January 14, 2016
635882877780182774-Bernie-in-Iowa-City.jpg

(Photo: Iowa City Press-Citizen file photo)

© COPYRIGHT 2016, DES MOINES REGISTER AND TRIBUNE COMPANY

Bernie Sanders might slip in the Iowa caucuses' delegate tally because his support is relatively concentrated in college towns, the new Iowa Poll suggests.

The U.S. senator from Vermont, who is favored by many young liberals, holds a commanding lead over Hillary Clinton in Black Hawk County, home to the University of Northern Iowa; Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa; and Story County, home to Iowa State University. His support tops hers by 52 percent to 30 percent in those counties, the poll shows.

Those three counties account for 27 percent of his supporters, though they hold just 21 percent of all likely Democratic caucus participants, poll director Ann Selzer said.

Here’s the potential problem for Sanders: Success on caucus night isn’t judged by how many Iowans back a candidate. It’s based on how many “delegate equivalents” those supporters garner at their precinct caucuses. Each precinct elects only a certain number of delegates. So if a candidate’s supporters are concentrated in a few precincts, they could wind up translating into fewer delegates than if supporters were spread evenly across the state.....................

[Rosa Luxemburg]

12. Very close

[bigdarryl]

13. I'm surprised Hillary is still even ahead in that state

Those fools in Iowa never liked or voted for Bill or Hillary for a primary.If she can keep that race close for herself that's a winner for her.

[cali]

14. That's beyond ridiculous.

[closeupready]

17. lol, if you believe that, then I ....er, you believe that.

[book_worm]

18. In 1992 most democrats didn't campaign in Iowa because Tom Harkin was running

In 1996 President Clinton easily won the caucus (because he had no serious opposition). Yes, Hillary did lose in 2008. But Bill easily won Iowa twice in the general. So I don't see where you get that Iowans never liked or voted for Bill--at least.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

21. Hey...where are you headed with those goalposts? nt