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The Geography of the 47%
The Atlantic:Following the big Mother Jones release of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's hidden-camera comment on the "47 percent" of Americans "who will vote for the president no matter what," my colleague at The Atlantic, David Graham, posted an article Monday looking at the real "47 percent." Using the Tax Foundation's data on 2008's income tax non-payers (people who filed a tax return but did not actually owe federal income taxes), he found that the states with the highest rates tended to be traditionally Republican states. Graham writes:
Romney's statements are a little unclear, but it appears that the 47 percent figure represents all of those who pay no income tax, rather than the Democratic base. His problem is that those people are disproportionately in red states -- that is, states that tend to vote Republican...One important note about these numbers: This measures only those Americans who filed for taxes with no liability. Millions more didn't even file; it's those millions, added to the estimated 52 million here, who combine to make that 47 percent.
...snip...
I thought it might be useful to update the map and do a bit more statistical analysis. Cities fellow Sara Johnson tracked down 2010 data on the "47 percent" of non-payers courtesy the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax research group. (The full 2010 data set is available here.) The Martin Prosperity Institute's Zara Matheson mapped the data.
Three states had more than 40 percent nonpayers — Mississippi (44.5 percent), followed by Georgia (42.5 percent), and Alabama (40.3 percent) — and all three were solidly for McCain in 2008. The remaining top ten were largely in the Sunbelt: Florida (39.0 percent), Arkansas (38.8 percent), South Carolina (38.8 percent), New Mexico (38.7 percent), Idaho (38.6 percent), Texas (38.5 percent), and Utah (38.3 percent). All but two of the top ten — Florida and New Mexico — went for McCain. At least a third of the filers in about half of the states (26) were non-taxpayers.
Romney's statements are a little unclear, but it appears that the 47 percent figure represents all of those who pay no income tax, rather than the Democratic base. His problem is that those people are disproportionately in red states -- that is, states that tend to vote Republican...One important note about these numbers: This measures only those Americans who filed for taxes with no liability. Millions more didn't even file; it's those millions, added to the estimated 52 million here, who combine to make that 47 percent.
...snip...
I thought it might be useful to update the map and do a bit more statistical analysis. Cities fellow Sara Johnson tracked down 2010 data on the "47 percent" of non-payers courtesy the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax research group. (The full 2010 data set is available here.) The Martin Prosperity Institute's Zara Matheson mapped the data.
Three states had more than 40 percent nonpayers — Mississippi (44.5 percent), followed by Georgia (42.5 percent), and Alabama (40.3 percent) — and all three were solidly for McCain in 2008. The remaining top ten were largely in the Sunbelt: Florida (39.0 percent), Arkansas (38.8 percent), South Carolina (38.8 percent), New Mexico (38.7 percent), Idaho (38.6 percent), Texas (38.5 percent), and Utah (38.3 percent). All but two of the top ten — Florida and New Mexico — went for McCain. At least a third of the filers in about half of the states (26) were non-taxpayers.
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