2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBad news for Bernie in Iowa: Bernie's support is concentrated in college towns
Tony Leys
5:13 a.m. CST January 14, 2016
Bernie Sanders might slip in the Iowa caucuses' delegate tally because his support is relatively concentrated in college towns, the new Iowa Poll suggests.
The U.S. senator from Vermont, who is favored by many young liberals, holds a commanding lead over Hillary Clinton in Black Hawk County, home to the University of Northern Iowa; Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa; and Story County, home to Iowa State University. His support tops hers by 52 percent to 30 percent in those counties, the poll shows.
Those three counties account for 27 percent of his supporters, though they hold just 21 percent of all likely Democratic caucus participants, poll director Ann Selzer said.
Heres the potential problem for Sanders: Success on caucus night isnt judged by how many Iowans back a candidate. Its based on how many delegate equivalents those supporters garner at their precinct caucuses. Each precinct elects only a certain number of delegates. So if a candidates supporters are concentrated in a few precincts, they could wind up translating into fewer delegates than if supporters were spread evenly across the state.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/14/sanders-could-be-hurt-by-concentration-of-young-fans/78741864/
guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)Each precinct elects only a certain number of delegates. So IF a candidates supporters are concentrated in a few precincts, they could wind up translating into fewer delegates than if supporters were spread evenly across the state.
And if they are more widely spread out, what might be the outcome?
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Those are college towns.
It's in the article.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)Those "college town" counties may be the most populous ones in the state.
sonofspy777
(360 posts)lacking new material?
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Do you have a link?
It's funny how some DUers try to scold others for posting articles.
As if it's so difficult to ignore the article and move on.
kath
(10,565 posts)pstokely
(10,528 posts)do they need an ID?