2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders is winning with the one group his rivals can't sway: voters Trevor Timm
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/14/bernie-sanders-is-winning-with-the-one-group-his-rivals-cant-sway-voters?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+USA+-+Version+A&utm_term=151176&subid=9068680&CMP=ema_565aPerhaps more important than Sanderss gain in the polls is how it happened: by patiently hammering on his message, regardless of what other candidates said...As Trump continues to dominate both parties for media attention, and Hillary Clinton remains a favorite to win with Wall Street, Bernie Sanders is suddenly surging again among those who actually matter: voters. But more important than his rise in the polls is how hes doing it.
A string of polls over the past two weeks show that the once-independent Vermont senator is tied or in the lead in the two early primary states, Iowa and New Hampshire, and all of a sudden, in striking distance of Hillary Clinton nationally. With very little fanfare, he has been leading in New Hampshire for months, with some recent ones putting his lead in the double digits.
But Iowa seemed distinctly in Clintons corner for the last quarter of 2015 until this week, just a month away from the primary. A Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday night showed Sanders vaulted into the lead, with a slew of others show him pulling in close to a tie.
Digging deeper into the numbers shows even more good news for Sanders: nationally, he is beating Clinton by 2-1 with voters younger than 45, and by 20 points with female voters younger than 35. In New Hampshire there is not one demographic group in which Clinton is beating Sanders. Hes also made recent gains among African Americans and Hispanics both demographics long considered Clinton strongholds...
more good news at link
Proserpina
(2,352 posts)Of course, they just got THEIR Bernie into office--and what a difference it's making for the UK, already!
Bernie's got a friend and ally overseas already...and we need to send him some more to join Congress.
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)CSStrowbridge
(267 posts)IF HILLARY CLINTON CAN'T SWAY THE VOTERS, THEN WHY THE FUCK IS SHE LEADING IN THE POLLS?
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster#2016-primaries
She's up nationally and she's up in three of the first four states, including Iowa.
Stop looking at only the poll results that support your favorite candidate. That's how "Unskew the Polls" started and we all know how that ended.
"Digging deeper into the numbers shows even more good news for Sanders: nationally, he is beating Clinton by 2-1 with voters younger than 45..."
Great, he's ahead in the demo that's the least likely to vote in a primary.
stillwaiting
(3,795 posts)very big issues (Foreign policy, single payer health care). I can't imagine where she would go after securing the nomination.
I truly hope that the next round of polling that reflects these events shows her taking a stunning dive.
My God, I can't believe Democrats can support her when we have a more electable alternative that is SO MUCH better on such very important issues.
CSStrowbridge
(267 posts)"I truly hope that the next round of polling that reflects these events shows her taking a stunning dive."
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/01/17/democratic-race-pits-experience-against-honesty/
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/poll-clinton-holds-25-point-national-lead-over-sanders-n498071
stillwaiting
(3,795 posts)No links but I'm sure you've seen the new polls too.
CSStrowbridge
(267 posts)Hillary Clinton has a four-point lead in Iowa and a 17-point lead nationally. Her poll numbers in South Carolina and Nevada are strong as well. If she wins three of the first four states before Super Tuesday, then Sanders is done.
Proserpina
(2,352 posts)Watch what happens in the next 2 months, then see if you are unclear about the process.
CSStrowbridge
(267 posts)"Ignorance and Inattention by the electorate..."
Yes, that's what Trump said when he was down in the polls. Insulting the people you are trying to convince isn't a good way of winning over voters.
Avalux
(35,015 posts)So you are counting on the polls being wrong. Again, do you remember Unskew the Polls?