Gallup: Shows Obama and Romney tied at 47%

[woolldog]

Also Obama is underwater on Job Approval rating by 2 points.

Does this have something to do with Libyan situation?

[Doctor Jack]

1. When is Gallup ever right about anything?

We should start calling them "Rasmussen Lite". Just because they have been around for a long time doesn't mean they know their asses from a hole in the ground.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Maybe It Has Something To Do

Maybe it has something to do with the fact there are nine recently published nat'l polls and that's the only one that doesn't show the president with a lead.

[Doctor Jack]

11. I think you're right, it could be an outlier

[DemzRock]

3. More like Gallop is playing games again...

Even Raz has Obama up and Intrade has Obama near 70% change of reelection. Also Nate has him at 75% odds of winning.

I don't trust Gallop or Raz. They always play games.

[gcomeau]

4. I expect that to swing back up.

There seemed like there was a couple bad days for Obama on that earlier this week, and some god days from post convention were falling off the 7 day average.

And it IS a 7 day average let's remember, it will react more slowly than most polls.

[TroyD]

5. A moment of irony

Both sides are going to be saying different things today.

A couple of weeks ago, Gallup was one of the best pollsters for Obama and the Republicans were accusing it of being biased in his favor. Today, with even Rasmussen showing Romney down, it's probably going to become their savior.

Meanwhile, for those of us on the Democratic side, we're probably going to accuse it of being biased in favor of the Republicans now. Nate Silver did demonstrate that it has had a small In-House bias towards the Republicans this year, but on the whole it has been fair lately.

I would assume that because it is a 7-day tracking poll, it is behind on catching the latest Romney 47% implosion and that Obama will start moving back up in Gallup in the days to come.

[Jennicut]

7. You are probably right. The 7 day average is slower then some other polls.

Rasmussen is a 3 day average but who knows with that poll most of the time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Think I Will Just Average All The Polls

Gallup has picked the wrong pop vote winner in two of the last eight elections and their margins of victory have been off in some of the presidential races they got right.

That being said, it is puzzling that the president lost all of his bounce...

[woolldog]

14. yes and it's weird that he's dominating the swing state polls now

and the national polls have fallen more or less back to even.

Not sure what to make of it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. If I Just Averaged All The Final Polls I Can Nail Something Like 98% Of The Races

But if I just used one poll I could never reach that level of accuracy. The more polls in your average the more robust the results. That's why it doesn't make sense to give added credence to any one poll...

on edit- no. He has a three point nat'l lead in the rcp nat'l average. On RCP it was literally , almost even, on the eve of the RNC.

[woolldog]

23. True. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Obama Is Trading At 70% On Intrade

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

Traders are largely ignoring Gallup. I supect if Gallup was showing better numbers for the pres he would be trading at closer to 75%

[Jennicut]

26. Actually, the national polls have not done that. Just Gallup and Rasmussen.

From Real Clear Politics:

Rasmussen Tracking 9/17 - 9/19 1500 LV 3.0 47 45 Obama +2
Gallup Tracking 9/13 - 9/19 3050 RV 2.0 47 47 Tie
Associated Press/GfK 9/13 - 9/17 807 LV 4.3 47 46 Obama +1
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 9/13 - 9/16 1344 LV 2.7 48 45 Obama +3
Pew Research 9/12 - 9/16 2268 LV 2.4 51 43 Obama +8
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/12 - 9/16 736 LV 3.6 50 45 Obama +5
FOX News 9/9 - 9/11 1056 LV 3.0 48 43 Obama +5
CBS News/NY Times 9/8 - 9/12 1162 LV 3.0 49 46 Obama +3

The AP/Gfk poll was the same in August and the registered voter poll was higher in the current Sept. poll. Using likely voter polls, Obama has the lead in every poll. Except Gallup, which is ironically registered voters. TroyD is probably correct in that as a 7 day tracking poll, it is not an instant snap shot like the other polls are.

[woolldog]

28. Thanks.

That gives a better perspective of the race.

[woolldog]

17. imo, Rasmussen makes up numbers

But I don't believe the same of Gallup. They're the most well known pollster and a name brand. They have more to lose than gain by fudging the numbers. Can't say the same about Rasmussen

Plus as you point out everyone loved them when they showed O with a commanding lead, now they're bums. I can't buy into that self serving perspective.

[Zoeisright]

6. Oh bullshit.

More lies to make pundits richer.

[donco]

8. I be live it was

called fence straddling back in the day.

[lame54]

10. Where have I heard that # before?

[TexasCPA]

12. Meah

Gallup polls about 450 voters a day. We've had tons of state polls this week that have broken 90% in Obama's favor.

Gallup is a 7 day tracker; therefore, it moves very slowly. It tells you what the situation looked like half a week ago.

[nichomachus]

13. What bullshit

They just make up this crap to make it easier for the GOP to steal the election. There's no way it's 47-47.

[WI_DEM]

15. I prefer to concentrate on all the other good state and national polls lately

and to hell with Gallup and their daily tracking poll. Even Ras has Obama up by two today.

[woolldog]

18. So now you like Rasmussen?

[WI_DEM]

21. Did I say that?

I just said 'even Ras has him up two-points' There are tons of other polls if you look over the page both national and state in the last 2-3 days which paint an entirely different picture. to live day by day by Gallup or Ras tracking polls is stupid because daily tracking polls are up and down and don't really give an adequate picture of the situation in individual states. Gallup is seven days so alot of what it is about is what happened to be in the news a week ago.

[woolldog]

22. Why are citing Rasmussen at all then?

If you agree that they're making up numbers, it doesn't matter who's ahead or behind one day; he's a tainted pollster. Why would you ever cite them?

[WI_DEM]

24. Just calm down

I was just saying that they were among the many polls that are up and by saying 'even' it is with amazement that I say it. I don't know why you are trying to pick a fight. But I do know from this post and others you seem to freak out about polls that are not as good as we would hope. Just take a deep breath and relax.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Obama Is Trading At 70% On Intrade

The traders seem to be largely ignoring Gallup...

As an aside it's because of Gallup's polling incompetence that the 1980 Reagan come from behind miracle win fairy tale was born. If there was a poll of polls back then they would have never showed the nine point Carter lead in late October that Gallup showed.

[WI_DEM]

29. Yep and if Obama does well in the first debate then I believe

except for GOTV it's over with. Most people will watch the first debate and that will be the one that will have the most effect on people, I believe.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. As An Aside Gallup's Final 76 Poll Was Ford 50% -Carter 48% And Final 00 Poll was Bush48* -Gore 46*

In their favor they showed Clinton winning in 92 and 96 by much larger margins than he eventually won by.

That's not to say they are corrupt. But they aren't infallible.

[woolldog]

31. Intrade also had

the supreme court overturning the individual mandate by 70-30 or so....as I recall.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. Because They Were Guessing What Nine Jurists Would Ultimately Decide.

It's like picking the SB winner... It's too subjective...


In the elections market they are just looking at all the available data which consists of polls which they can average,ergo:


In the 2004 presidential election, the market favorite won the electoral vote in every state. This occurred when, even as late as election day, many pollsters and analysts were predicting a John Kerry victory. In Florida, a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call. The betting markets, however, correctly and consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.[6]


BTW, that's basically what Nate is doing and his record is stellar too... Hey, I'm not a math genius but I'll bet I can nail >95% of every race where there is adequate polling data based on the polling data alone.

[woolldog]

30. I'm not freaked out at all

I'm very calm and sipping my latte. I just believe in being consistent. I'm ignoring all of Rasmussen numbers (good or bad) because I don't believe him. I think he makes them up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. Ras Isn't Making Stuff Up

But he has his finger on the scale because of the assumptions built into his model.

And his polls are compromised because they don't include cell phone and cell phone only users.

[woolldog]

41. I didn't think he was at first.

But please explain to me why he was the last pollster to show an Obama convention bounce? As a 3 day average, his numbers should have started moving way before Gallup, 7 day average. His numbers DID move, eventually. And DID show a LARGE bump. So the numbers weren't that different despite not including cell phones, and all the other methodological issues.

BUT I was following everyday and I was looking at when Gallup's approval rating turned (3 day average) and Raz should have picked up some of that. But it wasn't until it was obvious that Gallup's bounce was big, that Raz showed any bounce. And then the numbers turned on a dime to show that bounce. And then he was the first pollster to show that bounce evaporating. Last to show a bounce, first to show it's gone.

Also it was strange how before the RNC the numbers swung to Obama, when up until that point he had consistently had Romney in the lead. He was the only pollster who showed this "swing" to Obama leading up to the RNC. Now if I were manipulating data to serve GOP interests, the purpose of this would be to inflate Romney's anticipated convention bounce. In other words you could look at pre RNC numbers and say "Obama was up by 3 pre-RNC, now Romney is up by 4. WOW! That's a 7 point swing." Then you have a dramatic 7 point swing headline. And it generates some momentum for Romney. Much more than saying "Romney was at +1 prior to the convention and is now at +4 after the RNC. 3 point bounce"


Something's up with Rasmussen and it's not a credible tacking poll.

Just to give some perspective, there have been at least 2 pollsters caught red handed making up numbers. They both involved tracking polls, which are basically unverifiable for most of the race. It is a matter of credibility. And he has NONE.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. Research 2000 And Strategic Vision Were Accused Of Making Up Polls

The former is out of business and the latter is out of the polling business.

You bring up some interesting points and patterns we (poll watchers) re Ras and Gallup we all have all noticed. If Ras was just making isht up we would know by now. The guy isn't an idiot. He was one of the founders of ESPN. Again, I just think it's his model.

That's why it doesn't make sense to get worked up over any one poll...

If the poll of polls and intrade start showing bad numbers for the pres I will be concerned, very concerned.

[just1voice]

16. Gallup is a republican polling company

I've posted that numerous times too, as have many others.

[progressivebydesign]

35. yeah, but why spoil the fun for a handful of people that love the bad polls? n/t

[brush]

20. Don't believe the hype

Gallup is so right-leaning it's ridiculous. Who believes the race is tied after Rmoney got no bump from his convention, then came the sparkling Dem convention, then the foolhardy Rmoney comments on the Benghazi consulate flare up, then the release of the secret taping of Romney's 47% comment and we're supposed to believe that the race is tied? People are not that stupid, Gallup. Why don't you poll in a non-repug neighborhood for once? And try polling some cellphones also while you're at and you won't get such a tired, older, skewed outcome.

[progressivebydesign]

34. the usual right wing polls, the usual characters. So predictable. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. What Did That Liberal Liberal Republican President, Abe Lincoln Say?

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time."

[Cali_Democrat]

37. Two things

Rasmussen is showing Obama up two today so he's probably up about 4 at least. It looks like the 47% comment is starting to move the Rasmussen poll.

Also, the Gallup poll is a 7 day tracking poll so we're still not yet going to see the affect of the 47% comment in that poll.

[liberallibral]

38. I believe Rasmussen was the closest, back in '08...

They had Obama winning 52%-46%, and it turned out 53%-46%... Gotta give them credit for that..... Rasmussen also predicted a while before 2012, that the Repubs would pick up 62 seats, and they gained 63...

Worries me that they have Romney at 47% and the President at 44%...

Still optimistic though about President Obama winning - just nervous!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. You Are A Day Behind It's Obama 50%- 47% With Leaners /47% Obama -45% Romney (Without Leaners)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


Time to report to Jim Robinson for further instructions




on edit- if Rasmussen says Obama is leading it's ovah, right

[bushisanidiot]

39. Gallup and Rassmussan seem to be working in tandem

since rass is up on Obama, Gallup had to go down to even it out.

I also notice that realclearpolitics has CONVENIENTLY dropped all of last week off of the top polls that determine the over lead the president has. they are now only counting polls done from the 16 - 20, otherwise the poll of polls result would be higher for the President.

[Jamaal510]

42. No offense to the OP and maybe I'm biased,

but I call bullshit on this Gallup poll. I know that many Americans have short attention spans, but c'mon...there's no way that this thing is tied already when Obama has been leading among almost every demographic, he's been leading in all but one or two swing states (and the ones that he's not leading in are virtually tied), and he leads in the electoral vote even when you don't include the swing states.

[MjolnirTime]

45. thanks for the concern.

[torotoro]

46. I like How BOTH Repubs and Dems Bias themselves to the Polls that Favor their Side

I notice i always see people here like Gallup when it favors Obama and then hate on them when it doesnt. Same with Rassmusen.
I also notice the same thing with republicans on the other sites.

Though i do notice Democrats are slightly more objective and willing to take it on the chin...repubs seem to stick their heads in the sand more often.

[woolldog]

47. You're right.

Both sides do it and I find it incredibly irritating.

[budkin]

48. Gallup skews Republican but even so, how the hell did they get these numbers?

There is no way in hell after that 47% comment that they are tied. The Pew Poll (Obama +8) is much closer to the true numbers.

[lesboy]

49. What you are all missing....

While it is true that the 47-47 matchup may be related to a one week time period; what contradicts this and makes it even more baffling is the fact that Obama's approval numbers are a 3 day period and there he has also fallen. A week ago when he was leading Romney by 7 his approval was up in the low 50s; as high as when Bin Laden was killed. This was shortly after the convention. It held near there for a week or so but then in the past few days it started falling along with the head to head numbers. On Tuesday it was 49-45 I believe; then on Wednesday down to 48-46 and now on Thursday, after the 47% gaffe is partially there in the polling, amazingly dropped to 46-48 approval! This seems so incongruous and seems to be part of a Gallup narrative that the "bounce has faded" both in their articles and in the latest Frank Gallup video. When Romney should be plummeting and Obama rising in contrast the opposite is happening. So wierd!!!