2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Case Against Bernie Sanders
By Jonathan Chait
January 18, 2016
Until very recently, nobody had any cause to regret Bernie Sanderss presidential campaign. Sanders is earnest and widely liked. He has tugged the terms of the political debate leftward in a way both moderates and left-wingers could appreciate. (Moderate liberals might not agree with Sanderss ideas, but they can appreciate that his presence changes for the better a political landscape in which support for things like Mitt Romneys old positions on health care and the environment were defined as hard-core liberalism.) Sanderss rapid rise, in both early states and national polling, has made him a plausible threat to defeat Hillary Clinton. Suddenly, liberals who have used the nominating process to unilaterally vet Clinton, processing every development through its likely impact on her as the inevitable candidate, need to think anew. Do we support Sanders not just in his role as lovable Uncle Bernie, complaining about inequality, but as the actual Democratic nominee for president? My answer to that question is no.
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Even those who do share Sanderss critique of American politics and endorse his platform, though, should have serious doubts about his nomination. Sanders does bring some assets as a potential nominee his rumpled style connotes authenticity, and his populist forays against Wall Street have appeal beyond the Democratic base. But his self-identification as a socialist poses an enormous obstacle, as Americans respond to socialism with overwhelming negativity. Likewise, his support for higher taxes on the middle class while substantively sensible also saddles him with a highly unpopular stance. He also has difficulty addressing issues outside his economic populism wheelhouse. In his opening statement at the debate the day after the Paris attacks, Sanders briefly and vaguely gestured toward the attacks before quickly turning back to his economic themes.
Against these liabilities, Sanders offers the left-wing version of a hoary political fantasy: that a more pure candidate can rally the People into a righteous uprising that would unsettle the conventional laws of politics. Versions of this have circulated in both parties for years, having notably inspired the disastrous Goldwater and McGovern campaigns. The Republican Party may well fall for it again this year. Sanderss version involves the mobilization of a mass grassroots volunteer army that can depose the special interests. The major political, strategic difference I have with Obama is its too late to do anything inside the Beltway, he told Andrew Prokop. You gotta take your case to the American people, mobilize them, and organize them at the grassroots level in a way that we have never done before. But Obama did organize passionate volunteers on a massive scale far broader than anything Sanders has done and tried to keep his volunteers engaged throughout his presidency. Why would Sanderss grassroots campaign succeed where Obamas far larger one failed?
Sanders has promised to replace Obamacare with a single-payer plan, without having any remotely plausible prospects for doing so. Many advocates of single-payer imagine that only the power of insurance companies stands in their way, but the more imposing obstacles would be reassuring suspicious voters that the change in their insurance (from private to public) would not harm them and more difficult still raising the taxes to pay for it. As Sarah Kliff details, Vermont had to abandon hopes of creating its own single-payer plan. If Vermont, one of the most liberal states in America, cant summon the political willpower for single-payer, it is impossible to imagine the country as a whole doing it. Not surprisingly, Sanders's health-care plan uses the kind of magical-realism approach to fiscal policy usually found in Republican budgets, conjuring trillions of dollars in savings without defining their source.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/01/#
Good read.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)Beacool
(30,253 posts)One of them being Congress. I remember when so many people here were chortling with glee about the Blue Dogs who lost their seats in the House. Were they replaced by more liberal Democrats? Nope, those seats were mostly taken by members of the newly created Tea Party. Why? Because they came from conservative districts, that's why the Blue Dogs were barely hanging on to their seats in the first place.
The flaw to this uprising of the far Left is to assume that the majority of the country will go along and that the House will turn liberal in the near future. It's not surprising that Millennials are Sanders biggest supporters. The idealism of youth that has yet to be tempered by experience.
"The paradox is that the presidents ability to deliver more change is far more limited. The current occupant of the Oval Office and his successor will have a House of Representatives firmly under right-wing rule, making the prospects of important progressive legislation impossible. This hardly renders the presidency impotent, obviously. The end of Obamas term has shown that a creative president can still drive some change.
But here is a second irony: Those areas in which a Democratic Executive branch has no power are those in which Sanders demands aggressive action, and the areas in which the Executive branch still has power now are precisely those in which Sanders has the least to say. The president retains full command of foreign affairs; can use executive authority to drive social policy change in areas like criminal justice and gender; and can, at least in theory, staff the judiciary. What the next president wont accomplish is to increase taxes, expand social programs, or do anything to reduce inequality, given the House Republicans fanatically pro-inequality positions across the board. The next Democratic presidential term will be mostly defensive, a bulwark against the enactment of the radical Ryan plan. What little progress liberals can expect will be concentrated in the non-Sanders realm."
Armstead
(47,803 posts)pandr32
(11,624 posts)...and something that should be considered. The problem with idealistic followers is that they tend to wear blinders to reality.
Beacool
(30,253 posts)I just think that he's far too Left for this country. I have lived in Europe and Latin America, I have seen how Socialism worked in some of those countries, but the U.S. is different. People here think differently. Centrists like the Clintons and Obama have been called Marxists and Communists by a sector of society. The ACA barely passed when Congress had more Democrats than they have now.
I remember years ago changing radio stations in the car and a conversation catching my attention. The host was questioning a Dutch guest. He asked him why was he supporting Gore in the election when he was a conservative. The guest responded that Democrats were the conservatives in Europe. In other words, our Left was closer to their Right. It was enlightening and I never forgot that conversation. Unfortunately, I didn't catch who were the two people talking.
I think that when all is said and done, that Hillary will be the nominee. As for the GE, it will depend on how the economy is doing by November and if there are any unexpected events like, God forbid, a major terrorist attack. It will also depend on who the Republicans end up nominating. Will voters be willing to give the WH to Democrats for a third term? Who knows?
pandr32
(11,624 posts)They do tend to affect the momentary mindset of voters. If a terrorist attack were to happen just prior to elections it seems the economy and social issues would fade in the shadow. The candidate that is tough on foreign policy would suddenly seem more appealing. Of course this consideration should always be an important one, but voters seem to have a short attention span.
Another thing that bothers me is that the kind of socialism that Sanders seems to advocate is also changing in the face of a more international influence. Favorite cited examples of socialism, like Canada, Scandinavian countries, and New Zealand are all finding that their beloved "socialist" programs are being eroded in the face of conservative influence, in particular...moneyed interests. Thank goodness that Trudeau was just elected in Canada, but with the corporations running much of the health-care and insurance programs now it is doubtful they will be restored to where they were before.
We are no longer an isolated country set apart by huge oceans. The internet and international trade, not to mention all the conflicts and our joint efforts to curtail them and address the climate crisis, all have evaporated our isolation. It makes me laugh when I hear people say we need to take our country back...huh? Back to what, and how? Even our banking system has changed.
Sanders is not stupid. I think he knows these things. He has never lived according to the socialist "ideals" he advocates. He did visit Daniel Ortega while still Mayor of Burlington and called him "impressive." Never mind how corrupt the man was, and how different that brand of socialism is from what we see in Scandinavia. He also tried to see Fidel Castro who blew him off.
I think that Sanders may have a strange fascination for the power of these men garnered through revolution. It seems he wants to be the leader of a revolution right here, and it flies in the face of reason. He has reached old age and if he doesn't try now he will never do it, and even if he does mesmerize enough naive people to be part of this revolution, it will be dead as soon as the first bill to change things hits Congress.
HassleCat
(6,409 posts)Deny and Shred
(1,061 posts)"But Obama did organize passionate volunteers on a massive scale far broader than anything Sanders has done and tried to keep his volunteers engaged throughout his presidency. Why would Sanderss grassroots campaign succeed where Obamas far larger one failed? "
Obama has been a good President; however, he did NOT engage his volunteers. He immedaitey abandoned the best grassroots campaign ground game any Democrat has ever had in order to appoint Rahm, Geitner, Penny, Hillary, among many others. Obama immediately turned his back on his many volunteers. As a result, he bailed on single payer and compromised the extension of Bush Tax Cuts.
Obama accomplished many things, but to say he embraced his volunteers is fallacy. If Bernie were to embrace them and scorn the party hierarchy, he just might succeed. Despite Obama's many great attributes, bucking the Democrtaic machine was not one of them.
Bernie appears to be willing to see what lies beyond the party machine. Don't think for a second that doesn't appeal to many voters who feel scorned after voting twice for Hope & Change.
RiverLover
(7,830 posts)So many truths, expressed so well. You definitely nailed how I feel.
Deny and Shred
(1,061 posts)I used to feel like I was continually engaged in quality back-and-forth on DU. Now I feel like I have to pistol-whip some blind kids lest they think their horseshit is accurate. It degrades us all.
It is nice to see your kind words, though. Danke.
NJCher
(35,753 posts)I was going to make those points, too, but being in bed with my iPad in the middle of the night makes typing not so easy, so thank you for doing so and going me one further by pointing out how Obama treated his extensive grassroots network after his election.
in fact, Chait is not up to date on some of his arguments, the one about the extent of Bernie's grassroots network being one of them. If I recall correctly, Bernie's grassroots network surpasses what Obama was able to build at about this same point into the campaign.
The major portion of Chait's argument is that reforms needed have already been put in place by Obama and are showing results. Well, please, someone, tell me how the big banks are breaking up because Chait didn't. As a writing teacher, we tell our students: claim, evidence, explanation. Well, Mr. Chait, where is your evidence?
I could go on, and if I were into one- finger typing, I would. Perhaps I will return tomorrow.
NJCher
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)Is that the media are always out of date in their analysis. They just repeat the talking points of the previous campaign, because they don't want to risk being an outlier and to look foolish by taking risks. It's much safer to be wrong when everyone is wrong, rather than stand up and risk being singled out.
The same thing happened in 2008. The same thing will doubtless happen in 2024 although the Internet is steadily eating away the relevance of traditional media (largely for this very reason).
SamKnause
(13,110 posts)What did Rahm call us ???
F**king Retards.
I think president Obama squandered the momentum or mandate that he had, he never
used the bully pulpit, he surrounded himself with crooks, and he was a lousy negotiator.
When he couldn't find his comfortable walking shoes to help out the teachers in Wisconsin,
I knew which side he was on.
I cried watching that man being sworn in.
I believed in Hope and Change.
It could have been so very different.
I think Bernie is what this country and the world needs at this exact time in history.
brentspeak
(18,290 posts)weighs in.
Now that his beloved Iraq War is long over, poor Jonathan Chait has finally found something to shill for.
DirtyHippyBastard
(217 posts)Beacool
(30,253 posts)DirtyHippyBastard
(217 posts)snoringvoter
(178 posts)pnwmom
(109,000 posts)seem to exist in their liberal bubble, completely unaware of how unpopular ideas like new 8% taxes on the middle class will be -- no matter what claims are made about saving money in the long run.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)Sorry for the hyperbolic language and punctuation but I am so goddamn sick of that tired crap.
You know why it' s not more popular? Because the Democrats have not tried to sell it. They just echo the GOP spin, and proopose these overly complicated and intrusive monstrosities like Obamacare and the earlier Hillarycare.
The fatal flaw of both is they they are designed with the insurance industry as the base. Complicated formulas, mandates to buy overpriced and undercovering private insurance. And an employer based system that screws both business and workers.
No wonder people are skeptical of it.
How about going back to basics and think of it as the healthcare equivalent of Social Security? An entitlement program that goves you back what you put into it? And at a much lower cost than private insurance.
pnwmom
(109,000 posts)Democrats, but some of us learned from losing 49 states to 1. Which has happened twice in recent decades.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)pnwmom
(109,000 posts)to the two-time loser Ronald Reagan, in 1984.
Mocking progressives as "tax and spenders" has proved to be a very winning strategy.
snoringvoter
(178 posts)This is 2016. 48 years after the fact. 85% of the voters who remembers McGovern are past retirement, already eligible for full Social Security, infirm or dead.
The other 15% is still trying to scare you, and failing to do so.
The youngest voter at 21 at the time of the election in '68 would be 69.
pnwmom
(109,000 posts)Last edited Tue Jan 19, 2016, 06:21 PM - Edit history (1)
who are younger than he is.
And your facts are wrong. McGovern ran in 1972. Anyone in a Democratic household then, who was in high school, either was shocked and disappointed themselves or heard how their parents felt after that debacle. High school students then are in their mid and late fifties now.
And that is ignoring our subsequent 49 to 1 loss in 1984, when the progressive Walter Mondale lost to Ronald Reagan, on his third attempt at the Presidency. He found the winning formula when he ran against "tax and spend liberals."
A 9th grader then would have been born about 1970, and would be 45 now.
So there are a lot more of these voters than there are millennials who actually vote.
LondonReign2
(5,213 posts)Don't they know they should listen to the pragmatic Republican Democrats?
m-lekktor
(3,675 posts)so no surprise here! He has always been middle of the road.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)Arrogant little shit has obviously decided that change is futile, so the country should follow his defeatist footsteps.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)That is an over-worn phrase that is disingenuous and meant to create a vision of what social democrats have been yearning for for decades and decades. They've (we've) been beat over the head with it until we're brain damaged enough to say, "well... socialism can't be good... right?"
No. That is not right. In fact, it is the SAME EXACT SOCIAL POLICIES that have pulled the American people to a standard of living healthy with neighborhoods, family and continued success in fields of service, skilled labor and creative minds. This starts with regulating clean water and air, protecting land and habitats, extending the work week, abolishing child labor, ensuring safety in agriculture, public works, road and bridge safety, mass transit systems, fire and home buyer safety standards, and something called Social Security and Medicare.
We excel when we remember the tenants of democratic socialism. There is no magical-realism to this when Americans decide to demand and show up in numbers to follow through with such demands.
Odin2005
(53,521 posts)snoringvoter
(178 posts)Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)ChiciB1
(15,435 posts)SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)i am more worried about falling in the shower than terrorist
we have a huge intractable force working to keep us in line and to allow just enough scary stuff to keep some people afraid of change
be afraid - be very afraid
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)Get real!
Orsino
(37,428 posts)Because we can't have everything we want, we should pre-negotiate it away and support candidates whose goals aren't as lofty. Something something electability.
retrowire
(10,345 posts)Bernin4U
(812 posts)"Bernie can't get anything done."
Will be interesting to see what you get wrong next.