More on new CNN/WMUR poll --- showing Sanders 27 points ahead in NH

[slipslidingaway]

CNN/WMUR Poll: Sanders trouncing Clinton in New Hampshire

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/new-hampshire-cnn-wmur-poll-democrats/index.html


"Bernie Sanders' lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire is on the rise, with the Vermont senator leading the former secretary of state by 27 points, 60% to 33%, a new CNN/WMUR poll has found.

The new poll, mostly conducted before Sunday night's debate, found Sanders' support has grown by 10 points since a late-November/early December CNN/WMUR poll, which found Sanders holding 50% to Clinton's 40%.

New Hampshire Democrats' views on the race are solidifying as well, with 52% saying they have definitely decided who they will support, up from 36% who felt that way in early December. Among those voters, Sanders holds an even broader 64% to 35% lead..."

[Prism]

1. This seems like an outlier

I'd love it to be true, but other polls would've picked up on this if it were accurate.

[HereSince1628]

7. Yes, it does. Tossing the hi/lo poll is a common way of smoothing

running averages. If there is other polls show the same thing over time this result will become typical and others will get tossed.

[Proserpina]

2. Amazing!

It's the turnout Democrat/Republican that's going to be the most significant. It's where all the Independent voters end up.


It's a Bernie Blizzard!

[Punkingal]

3. Holy Shit!! Can this be accurate?

[JonLeibowitz]

4. Probably not accurate, but at least in the worst case it is still GREAT news!

[Punkingal]

8. I would be happy with a lead half that big!

[JonLeibowitz]

13. Something I found interesting from the NYT article...

No Democrat has received more than 45 percent of the primary vote in New Hampshire since 1972, aside from sitting presidents or vice presidents.

[Punkingal]

15. Wouldn't it be great if he got more than that?

[in_cog_ni_to]

5. Landslide anyone? 27 Points!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[NorthCarolina]

6. Wow....that's a tight race

Just kidding

[John Poet]

9. I think the pushback against the Hillary negative campaigning

is starting to kick in.

The actual numbers may be somewhat inflated, but the trendline is instructive.

The trendline is BEAUTIFUL !!!

[slipslidingaway]

10. Links ...

December poll
http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/primary2016_demprimary120915.pdf

January poll
http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/primary2016_demprimary011916.pdf

[Agschmid]

11. This reflects what I see on the ground in NH.

It's going to be a tough state for her to win.

[JonLeibowitz]

14. I don't mean to rub it in, but really??

Most of us Bernie supporters tend to think that the poll is a significant outlier. I understand a significant lead, but 27 points is actually unbelievable, as in I do not believe the poll.

[Warren Stupidity]

12. Makes the mumbling about South Carolina Firewall more meaningful.

[pa28]

16. This might explain why Bernie is focusing resources on Iowa and the SEC states.

We've got a battle.

[onecent]

17. YIPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE