2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhy won't RCP update its NORTH CAROLINA page?
Even though it has 2 new North Carolina polls on its main polling page, (High Point, Obama+4 & Purple Strategies, Obama +2), it has not added these polls to the Obama vs. Romney average page.
Odd, considering that RCP updated all their other state polling pages today. Their NC page still shows Romney about 5 points ahead of Obama because of this.
Am I reading too much into this, or is there an ulterior motive behind this?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html
NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)we poll watchers get frustrated pretty easily (I do, anyway). Have to say that the Princeton map is making me happiest right now. And the huge difference between Nov 6 and Now Cast on 538 is frustrating to me!
bluemarkers
(536 posts)had to check since I'm from NC...
Those last two are great news
TroyD
(4,551 posts)And it's been like this since this morning.
They updates all the other battleground states today, so it doesn't make sense that they didn't do this one.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html
Looks like they did it sometime after I posted my thread.
Did it have an effect?
the average is R plus 1.8
but the earliest poll posted from the beginning of September Survey USA has R up 10.... throw that out, and it looks like a small lead for Obama. Plus the trends look good.
DBoon
(22,366 posts)I mean really
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)smorkingapple
(827 posts)Even Nate Silver has it at 70% chance of ROmney winning it and it's extremely low on the tipping point scale meaning you will not see Obama put a lot of money in here to contest it unless Romney gives up somewhere else like VA. We don't need the state. It's a nice to have for us, it's a must win for Romney.
smorkingapple
(827 posts)In North Carolina, however, Republicans have requested nearly 7,000 more absentee ballots than Democrats out of almost 50,000 requests, state officials said.
http://news.yahoo.com/democrats-far-outnumber-gop-iowa-ballot-requests-102632378--politics.html?_esi=1
mnhtnbb
(31,388 posts)Voter Registration as of 09/22/2012 Democratic: 2,775,580 Republican: 2,007,265 Libertarian: 16,486 Unaffiliated: 1,649,710 Total: 6,449,041
http://www.ncsbe.gov/
And in the last few election cycles, registered Dems have been turning out
in great numbers for early voting.
It's all going to depend on gotv. I wouldn't write off NC--especially now since the Repubs
voted down the Vets job bill. What a bunch of idiots. HUGE military population in NC--
and Michelle/Jill have been working to help military families for the last four years.
I wouldn't write off NC. Nope.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)So Nate may change his predictions.
Once you take out the Rasmussen NC poll and the Civitas (R) poll, Obama has the lead in the new RCP average.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)And I live in NC. I was very happy Obama took NC in 2008, but I'd rather see Obama win the overall election.
Jeff In Milwaukee
(13,992 posts)When Obama's lead exceeds the MOE, they'll probably switch.
Can't say for sure, of course. That's just me guess.
windowpilot
(115 posts)Stop Voter Integrity Project (VIP), and sign my petition, please...
http://signon.org/sign/stop-voter-integrity?source=c.url&r_by=4001980