2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew Poll of Clinton Supporters Finds Strong Support for Clinton!
Not from the Onion, but you have to remove a few layers of skin before you get a whiff of the full aroma from the new Loras Poll:
With the 2016 Iowa precinct caucuses only ten days away, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton maintains a strong lead over her nearest rival, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, according to the newest Loras College Poll. The statewide poll of 500 likely voters in the Democratic caucus was conducted Jan. 13-18.
http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2016/Clinton-Maintains-Lead,-New-Loras-College-Poll-Fin.aspx
Nice work Hillary! Or is it?
Tucked away in the last paragraphs of the methodology notes is this fact:
"Survey included both landlines and cell phones (with an approximate 70-30 split)."
Now, I know that pollsters have struggled with polling cell phones, but this is just embarrassing - 70% Landlines?
Someone please wake up the folks over at Loras and have them read this news from the CDC, dated last December:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a new survey Tuesday, showing that nearly half of all American households now use only cell phones rather than older landlines. In total, 47 percent of the 21,000 households queried were cell-only, 41 percent use both, just 8 percent use just a landline, and 3.4 percent have no phone at all. Accounting for demographics, the results are even more staggering -- 71 percent of 24-34 year-olds use only their cells. Additionally, renters were far more likely to not have landlines than landlords and people living with non-family members went cell-only 85 percent of the time.
The CDC has been tracking these phone trends since 2003. It does so because much of the CDC's other survey work occurs over the phone and increasingly stringent laws governing phone surveys threatens to hinder those efforts.
http://www.engadget.com/2015/12/01/cdc-nearly-half-of-american-homes-no-longer-have-landlines/
More data from the CDC can be found here:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/wireless201512.pdf
In effect, the age group that Bernie wins at a 2-1 ratio ends up represented by only about 30%-35% of those polled. Hillary's demo - who are increasingly MORE likely to use a landline - are represented disproportionately in this poll, so much so that you have to question whether Loras knew they were focusing their polling on Hillary's supporters, or are just not very good at their jobs.
Saying "Hillary's is supported by the people that traditionally support Hillary" is like saying that water is wet. It doesn't reveal any new information, or show any change in opinions, and should be filed away accordingly.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)Gman
(24,780 posts)Since the older someone is, the more likely they are to participate in politics as they fall more into line with characteristics of people who participate eg income, education, etc.
Cal33
(7,018 posts)draa
(975 posts)It was to boost the spirits of her supporters. From the looks of it that had better do something. Quick.
demwing
(16,916 posts)whether Loras had an agenda or are just crappy at what they do.
draa
(975 posts)I doubt they have any motive but that poll was quoted, repeatedly, as proof of something we're just not seeing with our own eyes.
As long as Clinton keeps turning her back on the liberal base they'll need more shitty polls though. It won't be a good election if she continues.
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)show Hillary leading and the trend throughout has been that Hillary leads - but this poll is somehow off the mark? Somehow longtime Dems (and more in these age groups actually vote than has been the case so far with younger voters) who have always supported the person they believe will be the strongest Dem candidate are suddenly going to change their spots?
Well - OK, if that comforts you, please believe it. We'll see what really happens in a month. It's looks to be a close one, no matter what.
I have no doubt, however, that if Hillary does win Iowa, we'll see DU and elsewhere flooded with B**S*** posts that there was a DNC-backed conspiracy and there must have been fraud at the caucuses and that Hillary is fracturing the Dem party.
draa
(975 posts)Her supporters will still be like...
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)uponit7771
(90,339 posts)uponit7771
(90,339 posts)uponit7771
(90,339 posts)... rate also?
Seems pretty reliable
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)Sure, sounds really reliable.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)I expect many people use cell-phones exclusively, but I don't know what the proportion of that would be across all age groups in Iowa.
I know that WI has some really patchy cell-service once you get away from federal and large state highways, even so most people carry mobile phones. But lots of folks can't afford both. I suspect that it's similar in Iowa, with towns and highways well covered and then some patchiness, and people have to make choices that work for their needs.
Getting representative samples in Iowa would mean mirroring what's going on in the population and I agree that failure to do that would bias polling. I just don't know what that means for getting representative membership from samples of around 400 people when there are 1700 or so caucus precincts that divide across rural, small towns, and cities.
demwing
(16,916 posts)near the end of the CDC's notes, check Table 2:
Northeast - 31.6
Midwest - 51.9
South - 50.2
West - 47.1
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/wireless201512.pdf
Iowa is fairly representative of the Midwest, the Midwest has the lowest % of Landliners...