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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Des Moines Register’s Endorsements Of Hillary Clinton And Marco Rubio Aren’t Game Changers
But the endorsement could help Clinton because the Democratic race is so close.
Congratulations, Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton youve won the endorsement of the Des Moines Register! But what does that mean for your respective campaigns? Its definitely a good thing. Well, itll help a little probably.
Lets look at how past candidates were doing in the polls before getting the Iowa papers endorsement and how they did once all the votes were counted. (Ive updated my colleague Nate Silvers table from late 2011.) Heres how the nine Des Moines Register-approved candidates since 1988 fared in the caucuses versus their prior projected vote totals according to the polls:
Thats not to say the papers endorsement is meaningless. For one, it may hold more sway for Democrats than for Republicans. All four of the Democrats who have gotten the endorsement have done better than projected, compared to three of the five Republicans. And this year it wouldnt be surprising, for instance, if the Des Moines Registers decision not to endorse Donald Trump doesnt affect his fortunes too much given that the paper already called on him to drop out of the race.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/des-moines-register-endorses-clinton-rubio-primary-iowa/
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The Des Moines Register’s Endorsements Of Hillary Clinton And Marco Rubio Aren’t Game Changers (Original Post)
DemocratSinceBirth
Jan 2016
OP
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)1. Thanks
SunSeeker
(51,787 posts)2. K & R
Gothmog
(145,794 posts)3. This endorsement should help the Clinton campaign