Brand New ARG poll in Iowa: Sanders 48%; Clinton 45%; O'Malley 3% (S 55%; C 38%; O 3% in 18-49 demo)

[Attorney in Texas]

Here is a link to the ARG polling data:

48% - Sanders
45% - Clinton
3% - O'Malley

Interesting internal numbers on 18-49 year olds:

55% - Sanders
38% - Clinton
3% - O'Malley

Also, look at the split among those (regardless of age) who were polled by cell phone (versus landline):

53% - Sanders
38% - Clinton
3% - O'Malley

[Dawson Leery]

1. ARG is biased for Bernie. With the margin of error,

they are tied or she is slightly ahead.

[Motown_Johnny]

7. You can't give her the entire MOE and say she is ahead.

That claim makes as much sense as saying Bernie is really 13% ahead.


Both are ridiculous.


I will agree that this is a virtual tie, but you can't claim Hillary to be slightly ahead based on this poll.

[Goblinmonger]

12. Not in the two sub-groups identified in the OP

The cell phone one should scare the shit out of Clinton. Most people don't have land lines.

[Attorney in Texas]

13. I see how you might want to cling to that, but compare ARG to the other live phone polls:

Last edited Mon Jan 25, 2016, 05:44 PM - Edit history (1)

Here is how the race in Iowa has developed according to ARG:



Here is how the race in Iowa has developed according to the aggregation of ALL live phone polling (including those, like Loras, which have a HUGE pro-Clinton house effect):



When comparing the two charts, note that the ARG chart goes back only to June so the left quarter of the all polls chart includes numbers that predate the earliest ARG Iowa polling this cycle.

ARG had Clinton steady while other polls showed her falling in the summer and fall, and ARG has her losses plateauing in January whereas the other polls indicate the Clinton free fall isn't over.

ARG has not shown much house effect and has certainly not shown a pro-Sanders house effect.

Also, ARG is a live cell and landline phone poll of likely caucus goers. That's pretty much the top of the line in terms of methodology.

No one is saying this poll predicts doom for Clinton or that a poll takes the place of the actual caucus a week from now. However, if you are a Sanders campaign worker freezing his or her ass off in Iowa, this is a nice confirmation that all of the hard work is paying off and Sanders is on the right track. One more week of hard campaigning left in Iowa and then on to New Hampshire and Nevada!

[Betty Karlson]

21. Thanks for that thoughtful reply. Most illuminating. eom

[draa]

27. Excellent breakdown!!!

This is what's needed in these discussions.

[thereismore]

29. Very nice summary. nt

[KingFlorez]

2. ARG is a crummy pollster

The last couple of cycles were not great for them.

[Dawson Leery]

6. If ARG was right, Coo Coo Ernst would not be a Senator right now.

[Attorney in Texas]

15. I guess you prefer Opinion Research Corp which had Sanders up by 8% or Quinnipiac with Sanders up 5%

Me too!

[TheBlackAdder]

26. If Nate Silver was always right, Donald Trump would have dropped out by now. nt

[Attorney in Texas]

37. Silver had Jeb! as "inevitable" and Trump as "inconceivable." It's not that he's wrong; it's just

that he's offering a snapshot in time and this picture evolves as new data comes in. New data is coming in and Silver's model will narrow (because of the way Silver values endorsements, Sanders will always be Silver's underdog, but Silver will show the race tightening).

[senz]

3. Most polls and ALL trendlines are for Bernie.

Thanks for the OP, AiT.

[closeupready]

4. Naturally. Most polls and ALL trendlines are biased for Bernie.

The reality is, Hillary is WAY ahead, by a HUGE margin.

[senz]

9. Yes, Hill fans flocked to this thread to tell us just that.

They sure do get excited about polls.

Here's what I learned from them:

All polls showing Bernie ahead are invalid.

All polls showing Hillary ahead are solid.

[Attorney in Texas]

36. exactly!

[hrmjustin]

5. Not a good track record for ARG.

[TDale313]

10. Truth is, caucuses are by their nature tough to poll.

I think all this tells us is it seems to be close. Could go either way, and will come to turnout, which relies on organization (adv Hillary?) and enthusiasm (possible adv Bernie?)

[hrmjustin]

11. Forcast is for snow so that will also be a factor.

[Attorney in Texas]

14. By all means -- pray for snow. We Democrats always want to suppress the vote! Right?

[hrmjustin]

16. Are you freaking kidding me?

I mention the snow forcast and you are accusing me of voter suppression and being Karl Rove!


Are you for real?

[Attorney in Texas]

17. If you were not hoping for a reduced turn out, I withdraw the comparison. If you were hoping for a

reduced voter turn out, it kinda seems Rovian.

We're Democrats -- we want to expand the vote and not hope for circumstances which make it hard for people to vote.

Giving you the benefit of the doubt, I withdrew the Rove reference.

[hrmjustin]

18. Where the hell was I hoping?

I said there is snow in the forcast. That will be a factor.

Seems like you just want to call me names.

[hrmjustin]

24. I await your response to this poster below.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1064456

[Attorney in Texas]

32. I presume that poster also inferred from the context that you were glad for the forecast of snow. If

that was not your intent, I'm glad that we agree that as Democrats we should want to encourage turnout and not hope for conditions unfavorable for a high turnout (because that is what Republicans do).

I presume the other pose is being sarcastic.

If not, I agree it is a completely un-Democratic sentiment.

[hrmjustin]

33. You presume the poster is being sarcastic but jumped on me and called me rove.

Its called you have double standards.

[DaGimpster]

19. I own an all-wheel drive vehicle...

... and will be taking any neighbors who need a ride.

All jokes aside though, in '08 it was wicked cold out here, but no snow. It certainly could have implications for all candidates.

[hrmjustin]

25. Glad you are helping out.

[John Poet]

22. GOOD! That should keep the OLD PEOPLE at HOME!

It certainly keeps ME at home....

[hrmjustin]

23. Really?

Wow!

[John Poet]

30. It's really the COLD that'll keep me in.

The snow just tends to come with it.


If it weren't for their politics, I'd live in Arizona...

[hrmjustin]

31. You want old people to stay home and not vote?

That is what you said.

[John Poet]

34. If I could pick who actually votes in Iowa?

SURE, why not? Then my candidate would be sure to win.

NO, seriously, I would like EVERYONE to vote who is ELIGIBLE--
(which would actually include more independents than Democrats).
That work for you?

Actually, I was making a joke about myself but you H folks are particularly humorless of late, are you not? I can certainly understand why you would be, now.

[hrmjustin]

35. I didn't find the humor in it.

[in_cog_ni_to]

8. GO BERNIE!

The 99% is paying attention! We hear you loud and clear!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[WillyT]

20. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[draa]

28. K+R!!!

Thanks.

[Odin2005]

38. Figures that most Clinton supporters are old people.

Red-baiting still works on people over 50.