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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWow. NC has gone blue on Princeton. Check out this -"Bustin' Out?"
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/24/obama-nearing-an-electoral-ceiling/"Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ) was partially correct when he said about Romney: If the election were going to be held tomorrow that would be a problem.
In one respect, Governor Christie might be wrong: there has been a problem for Romney for months, not just recently. He was behind last week and hes behind today. However, the kind of shift we are seeing is likely to be accompanied by an accompanying shift at the downticket level. Looking at the trend, a further surge for the Democrats is likely in the coming days possibly including Missouri and Arizona at the Presidential level. For Congressional Republicans, an election tomorrow has the advantage that it might help contain the damage.
At the Presidential level, it might be hard for the EV estimator to go any higher. The gray confidence interval is narrowing, suggesting that there are not that many more electoral votes to be had. At 347 EV, is Obama nearing a ceiling?
The great majority of probability, over 60%, is concentrated in a single peak, at 347 EV. It is very unusual for this distribution to be so sharply peaked. No states are in the knife-edge zone."
A very nice read...but
GOTV efforts need to be huge! Republicans have been known to STEAL elections!
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Wow. NC has gone blue on Princeton. Check out this -"Bustin' Out?" (Original Post)
NRaleighLiberal
Sep 2012
OP
oldhippydude
(2,514 posts)1. what the hell did you put in those tomatoes this year...
turned the whole damned state blue!!!
NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)2. !!!!!
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)3. Blue may be a little bit premature, the newest poll posted today is from Sept 18-19th.
RCP moved NC to toss-up: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
TPM moved NC to toss-up: http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard
HuffPo moved NC to toss-up: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map?hw
FiveThirtyEight show the THREE newest polls with Obama in the lead in NC but they are still keeping NC as a Romney Lean: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Edited to add...
BUT congratulations! I remember how excited I was when a saw Texas on a couple of maps as PINK instead of red
NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)4. I am taking none of this for granted...time to go volunteer!
TroyD
(4,551 posts)5. Glad to hear it!
Just don't tell the folks at FR! They think Obama is finished there.
NCLefty
(3,678 posts)6. "Republicans are CURRENTLY TRYING TO STEAL elections!"
"Republicans are CURRENTLY TRYING TO STEAL elections!"
Fixed