Bill Kristol: Could Republicans Lose the House?

[brooklynite]

Weekly Standard:

The new Politico/GWU/Battleground poll seems to me, from a quick perusal of its internals, to have produced solid and non-quirky results consistent with several other surveys. It has a D+3 sample, and shows an Obama margin of 3 on the presidential ballot test and a 1 point Democratic edge on the generic congressional ballot.

Which raises the question: Is the conventional assumption that Republicans will continue to hold the House sound?

It may not be. Two other recent likely voter polls have produced an R+1 and a tied generic congressional ballot. So let's say that right now the congressional ballot is tied. The closest we've come to an even national popular vote for the House in recent years was in 2000, when Republicans had a narrow popular vote margin of .3 percent, and ended up with a narrow 221-212 margin in seats. An even popular vote tends to translate into pretty even results in seats split between the two parties. In the wave elections of 2006, 2008, and 2010, by contrast, the parties' popular vote margins ranged from 6 to 8 percentage points. The middling GOP majorities of 2002 and 2004 were based on national popular vote margins of more than 2 1/2 points.

In other words, IF the polls are right, and IF nothing much changes over the remaining six weeks, the House could well be in play. Maybe things will move in a Republican direction. Or maybe Republicans will hold on in an even popular vote election with the help of incumbency advantages and post-2010 redistricting. But it's also possible that an Obama +3 victory on Election Day would drag the Democrats to an edge in the congressional vote—and control of the House. In any case, based on current polling, I don't think one can say that it's now out of the question that we could wake up on the morning of November 7 to the prospect of ... Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Interesting that this is becoming a recurring speculation. I'm going to have to talk to my DCCC friends and see if there's a "there" there.

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. Yes, please!

[gkhouston]

2. If Kristol admits the House "could well be in play", the Rs must think they're going to lose it. n/t

[smorkingapple]

3. This is Kristol's way of saying Fuck Romney! Send money to House races!!!

A Republican's worst nightmare is giving Obama control of both houses, even without 60 votes.

[davidn3600]

5. That's what Im thinking too

It would take quite a lot though for the Democrats to retake the House. They'd have to sweep the toss-ups right now PLUS pull some upsets.

Might be Kristol's way of saying..."screw Romney, lets work on Congress."

[DCBob]

10. yes.

Kristol gave up on Romney a long time ago.

[MADem]

4. Sweet Insert-Name-of-Favored-Deity-Here!!! Make it so!!!!! nt

[mojo2012]

6. I wish....

that one of President Obama's ads could be a universal message that can be run in states with House/Senate seats in play to not only urge voters to vote for him but urge people to vote for Democrat for the House or Senate seat in their state.

I'm not sure when he says "the American people" can change Washington is getting through. I think the message has to be more blunt.

I don't think Dems can take the House, but I think we could shrink the # of Republicans. It would great to see a "one term" Congressmen or women! Tea Partiers' OUT !

[NCLefty]

8. I agree but they always seem to make ads out of bite-sized ideas

and explaining the mechanics of the house (and why it matters) might exceed the attention span of many voters (teehee)

[alcibiades_mystery]

7. Two Phases of Saving Downticket

1) Have Romney come out with numerous "we're going to win" statements, have him form his transition team, talk up the intel briefings, etc. This keeps the base involved, even if the smart money is on Romney losing. The base needs to be out and voting; Romney's issue will increasingly be the fleeing money guys who want nothing to do with his losing effort.

2) Put the fear of Gawd and/or Nancy into the base and the money guys. They're going to pull their money from Romney. Indeed, they're already doing so. But the GOP still needs that money flowing to the close House races. So you start to dribble out some "Hey, we might lose the House" stories to fire up the base and pull the cash.

Note that neither of these strategies does fuck all for Independents and middle-of-the-roaders. This is all about preventing a wave election behind Romney's pitiful campaign. The Romney people, too, are now trying to salvage the House and other downticket races. They appear to have also given up on the Senate. Numbers must be dismal.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. How'd you like to be Romney, when he loses AND causes the House to be lost. He'd better make

plans now to move to one of those places he hides his money !