6 days and counting
In 2008, the Iowa Caucus was on January 3rd. The final weeks of polling would have been during the holidays so how that impacted those numbers is anyone's guess.
That being said, polls were very mixed.
There were three candidates in 2008.
Some Obama was ahead.
Some Clinton was ahead.
Some Edwards was ahead.
None ahead by much.
On average, Obama was ahead by a sliver.
Polling from the last 6 polls before election day
Obama +1
Clinton +9
Obama+4
Obama+3
Obama+7
Clinton+2
Average Obama +1.6
That was reflected in the results on January 3rd, 2008 in the Iowa Caucus.
38% Obama
30% Edwards
29% Clinton
As I stated in another post, there is no "winner" in an Iowa Caucus. The delegates are spread based on the caucus results.
In 2008 the delegates were spread as:
Obama 16
Clinton 15
Edwards 14
As I stated, no "winner" but Obama did do better than the others based on the results.
All that being said, there are patterns here that is similar.
There are three candidates again.
O'Malley is not doing as well as Edwards was at this point.
The current polling in Iowa right now (Latest 6 polls, All done between 1/15-1/24)
CNN/ORC Sanders +8
KBUR Clinton +9
CBS News/YouGov Sanders +1
ARG Sanders +3
Fox News Clinton +6
Average: Clinton +.6 (point 6)
There may be more polls as we get closer but that is how it stands now. This is a statistical dead heat.
As it stands now both will come away with delegates, who comes away with more won't be known until February 2nd or so.
This can be said with little doubt:
Clinton is not walking away with this election. Sanders will do very well and will likely win in Iowa (enthusiasm is everything in a Iowa Caucus and Sanders has a clear advantage in that respect). He will win in New Hampshire. This will carry to Nevada and he will likely carry that state. These wins and/or positive results will likely carry him strongly into South Carolina where polling has him gaining week after week. While he may or may not win in South Carolina, he will do very well in the least.
By the time we get to Super Tuesday, momentum may well be on his side as it was for Obama by this point and this election will be over.
Based on supporters, enthusiasm and polling trends history can very well repeat itself.
Based on these supporters, their enthusiasm, polling trends and history, I am willing to predict and call Iowa and New Hampshire for Sanders.
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