GOLD STANDARD IOWA POLLSTER- Ann Selzer, calls it for Hillary!!! -HRC 45% SBS 42% MOM 3%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Hillary Clinton has kept a tight grip on her slim lead over Bernie Sanders in the waning hours leading into the Iowa caucuses, a new Iowa Poll shows.

Clinton is the top pick for 45 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, with Sanders at 42 percent, The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll shows.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/clinton-keeps-slim-edge-over-sanders-latest-iowa-poll/79537020/

[99th_Monkey]

1. That's not what I just saw: Bernie 51%, Hillary 39% <-- Is this not correct? n/t

[TSIAS]

2. Apparently not

HRC 45 BS 42
Trump 28 Cruz 23

[99th_Monkey]

8. When I first tuned into the live announcement those numbers were up on the screen

not sure what "Bernie 51%, Hillary 39%" was about ??

They were then talking about how to understand Bernie's huge margin,
then it suddenly changed to the other numbers. But it appears your
numbers are the over-all numbers, I just am still wondering what the
Bernie 51%, Hillary 39% was about.

[Renew Deal]

16. It was the cares about people like you number.

[99th_Monkey]

31. Ahh. Helpful to know. Thank you. nt

[Fawke Em]

3. WORK HARDER BERNITES. CAN'T LET THE ESTABLISHMENT WIN!

Phone bank, ride-share, march.

We have to beat that awful candidate!

[99th_Monkey]

9. +10000 nt

[Fawke Em]

4. Makes me sick.

She'll be in jail and Trump will win. Ugh.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Ahhhhhh

She'll be in jail and Trump will win. Ugh.

-Fawke Em

I haven't been so happy since my birthday...I am literally doing the:

[Fawke Em]

61. You win - my son gets killed.

She'll send us to so many wars, he'll be drafted.

She really is a neocon war monger and I don't understand how any left-leaning person could ever vote for her.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

62. I don't even know how to respond...

You win - my son gets killed.
She'll send us to so many wars, he'll be drafted.

She really is a neocon war monger and I don't understand how any left-leaning person could ever vote for her.

-Fawke Em

I don't even know how to respond. Nobody's son is going to be drafted and killed by Hillary Clinton. Her foreign policy views are within the mainstream of Democratic thought.

[Fawke Em]

64. Not killed by her, directly.

Geez, learn to read.

She's a WAR MONGER. She'll get us in so many wars, we'll need to draft. My son is nearly 17 now - and half Arabic. YOU figure it out.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

66. You are about the fifth Sanders supporter to insult and patronize me today.

"....Geez, learn to read..."

You are about the fifth Sanders supporter to insult and patronize me today. No wonder the senator has asked his supporters to stop insulting people on the internet. It's a bad look, a very bad one...

My reply remains the same. I will be the bigger person, rise above the fray, and not respond in kind.


Respectfully,

DemiocratSinceBirth

[Iliyah]

5. YES!

[workinclasszero]

6. YES!!

Go Hillary!

[retrowire]

7. That is a dead heat. All within MOE.

Both of them gained 3 points and have stayed relative to one another.

Oy vey, this is going to be a fight.

Either way, Bernie has the majority of the youth vote and polls over 20 points higher than Hillary when people are asked "Does this candidate care about people like you?"

And the pundits said that that number is normally very telling when it comes to deciding the winner.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I am too busy Twisting to respond.

[Fawke Em]

63. Turnout, turnout, turnout.

[lunamagica]

11. WOOOHOOO!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. We were told by the Sanders supporters Ann Selzer was the Babe Ruth of polling...

Now we are being told that when Ann Says Hillary is ahead they are really tied, go figure!!!

[lunamagica]

17. So predictable and expected. Let's just enjoy this

!This board badly needs a dancing banana!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I was told she was the Michael Jordan of polling and her word is golden.

I was also told to ignore every other poll in the world because she was omniscient, omnipotent, and an oracle.

What has changed?

[lunamagica]

30. She didn't pick Bernie...so she's now more like Michael (mike) Lookinland from

The Brady Bunch...to short to shoot

The last few days have been just AWESOME for Hillary! Hopefully the trend will continue right through November!

[ismnotwasm]

46. They found a little room under the bus

Apparently.

[Number23]

68. "This board badly needs a dancing banana!"

Will this little fella do?? He even has his own pom poms!

[lunamagica]

69. That's it! YAY!

Thanks Number23

[DefenseLawyer]

22. Do you not understand what a Margin of Error is?

It appears you do not.

[FloridaBlues]

35. Do you not understand she's ahead in this golden poll

Hillary by 5-6 points come Monday night.
Last 5 polls all had her up not one poll had bern up.
Sweet.

[DefenseLawyer]

37. She's ahead by 3 and there's a MOE of 4

That's a tie, sport. But far be it from me to rain on your parade with statistical analysis and whatnot.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. Sir or madame,

She's ahead by 3 and there's a MOE of 4
That's a tie, sport. But far be it from me to rain on your parade with statistical analysis and whatnot

-Defense Attorney

Sir or madame, is there really a need for you to patronize your interlocutors on an anonymous message board?

And why is a man of your status arguing with us plebeians?

Thank you in advance.

DemocratSinceBirth
Proud Proletarian


P.S. She is ahead in the last five polls. If you use the Law OF Large Numbers, add em, and get the average, her lead is outside the margin of error.

That in and of itself is not dispositive of anything but the fact her lead is outside the margin of error.

[DefenseLawyer]

47. There's really nothing to argue about

I didn't determine the margin of error for the poll, the pollster did. It is, as they say, what it is. If that is patronizing, I'm truly sorry that facts are patronizing. If you want to argue about how statistics work, you'll need to find someone else to engage in that debate. Just enjoy the good news.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. The margin of error is theoretical...

It doesn't mean that every time a candidate's lead is inside the margin of error he or she is not really leading...

Ceteris paribus, the margin of error is 4% and Candidate X is at 45% and Candidate Y is at 42% , you have to bet everything you own on the eventual winner, which candidate are you going to choose?

I will use The Law Of Large Numbers and aggregate the last five polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

The sample size is 3,193 and Hillary Clinton's lead is 3.3% My back of the envelope margin of error calculation is 1.73%. That is outside the margin of error.

I regret that our tete-a-tete became rancorous. I am not not Nate Silver but I did do post grad work in Government and wouldn't have got that far without a rudimentary understanding of social science research.

[brooklynite]

51. "That's a tie..."

OR Hillary is ahead by 7.

Amazing how the MOE always works in Sanders favor

[brooklynite]

53. Here are the takeaways...

No late surge for Sanders...

No bulk shift of the undecideds to Sanders...

It'll all boil down to turnout operations, and Clinton had refined hers since 2008

[DefenseLawyer]

56. Statistically it's seen as a tie

Because you can't assume accuracy "within" the margin of error. Sure, she could be up by 7. But that is no more likely than Sanders being up by 1. As I said, you'd rather be up and than down, and it's good news for her. You just can't read more into it than is there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. No need to patronize me, sir or madame...

Do you not understand what a Margin of Error is?
It appears you do not

No need to patronize me, sir or madame.

The margin of error is 3% and the confidence interval is 95%. That means we can say with confidence that this poll is accurate 95% of the time and the results can vary by three percent.


DemocratSinceBirth
Proud Plebian

[DefenseLawyer]

43. It's actually 4 not 3

But since the MOE doesn't mean anything to you it doesn't really matter what it is. They "called it for Hillary" and you have won. Enjoy your weekend.

[mythology]

25. You didn't read the entire article did you?

Here's a rather important part:

“It comes down to who can grind it out on the ground on Monday night,” said Axelrod, a senior political commentator for CNN and an architect of Barack Obama's successful 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

The results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

"Turnout is everything," Axelrod said. "If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie."

This crowing that you're doing, is at best premature given that the very same article includes that it's within the margin of error. It's also premature in that any given poll has a confidence level and so in theory this could be one of the polls that takes an inaccurate sample of the overall electorate. 3% is a really small margin for error even if it is right and you would need to win over at least some of the O'Malley supporters if his numbers are accurate.

[workinclasszero]

27. Bernie folks got some funny math skills

[Ed Suspicious]

36. No. Statistics tells us they are tied. You know that.

I might not enjoy your company but I do believe you know how to read a poll.

[ucrdem]

14. Woohoo!

Eight years ago I never thought I'd feel this way about Hill but the times they are a-changin!

[Fawke Em]

65. You mean, you're "a-samin'" coz she's the same ole, same ole.

Which means, I can never retire.

[bkkyosemite]

15. dd O'Malley's 3% to Sanders and you get

45 to 45

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. If that makes you feel better please run with it./nt

[sadoldgirl]

34. I would not count on that at all.

O'Malley is more of an establishment guy.
We will see.

I am much more in shock that Trump has really
held up. Frightening, as far as I am concerned.

[elleng]

38. And SENATOR Sanders isn't as much a part of the establishment

as is a former mayor and governor?

[dinkytron]

19. Congrats, Hillary supporters. Glad you finally got some good news. But we all know...

this whole Bernie thing cannot be put back in a jar. Let's see what happens.

[Iliyah]

26. Living changes day by day, nothing stays the same

That said, thank you, and no, never.

[DefenseLawyer]

20. I'm not sure showing a lead within the MOE is "calling it for Hillary"

But better to be ahead than behind.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. I agree. It is better to be ahead in the last five polls than behind.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

If you use the Law Of Large Number and include all the samples in the survey Clinton's lead is statistically significant.




MATH

[DefenseLawyer]

33. Well we won't have to wait long to find out

If your candidate wins on Monday you will be happy. If she loses your polls won't be much comfort. But enjoy the moment I guess.

[DaGimpster]

23. My wife was out canvassing our precinct here in Des Moines today...

... and ran into a number of Republicans who support Sanders and will be switching affiliations at the door.

Either way, this is a major toss up right now with a lot of wildcards. Whomever wins, I feel it will be a slim margin. I'm glad the rubber is finally meeting the road and we, as a party, can start moving on.

[Iliyah]

28. I think they are more concerned about their party.

150 - 185 K re: GOP

[DaGimpster]

32. The comment she got from the R's who were going to come caucus D was

that their candidate didn't have a chance, so why bother.

[SidDithers]

29. DU rec...nt

Sid

[KingFlorez]

39. I can only imagine the nasty emails the pollster is getting

[Bleacher Creature]

41. I hope she doesn't have a Facebook page!

[workinclasszero]

45. Swarming feel the Bern attack

Incoming

I'd take it offline for awhile

[Vinca]

42. What's the margin of error? Most likely it's a virtual tie.

[Ed Suspicious]

48. 4

[elias49]

50. The 'gold standard'? Who told you to say that?

You sure it's not the platinum standard. Will this be tomorrow's meme?
The "gold standard" in polling said:

The fact is, this primary is unlike any in modern American history.
Any pollster worth listening to would probably be unwise to go out on a limb, lest they lose their own personal shine!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. This distinguished gentleman.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511099209

[nc4bo]

52. Bernie Sanders is running an AWESOME campaign and the proof is in the poll LOL!

Ms. Landslide Inevitable is just plain notsomuch.

Good job Berners - now finish it and GOTV!!!

[NowSam]

55. Dewey Beats Truman!

Read all about it.

[morningfog]

57. Great numbers! Within the MOE and leaves MOM numbers.

It's going to be a great night Monday.

[NurseJackie]

58. kick!

[DCBob]

59. Good enough for me!

I think with Hillary's strong ground game she will take Iowa.

[cali]

60. Propaganda. Cute. It's within the MOE

[oasis]

67. Game over after Super Tuesday. On that, no polling authority needed

Just drop into the DU Hillary Group for the dusk 'till dawn fandango.

[Karma13612]

71. Ridiculous- how can you 'call it' before it's even begun? Eom