538 just updated their Iowa prediction

[Godhumor]

Using Polls only for their prediction, Clinton stands at 74% likely to win.

Using their Polls Plus methodology (includes things like endorsements) her odds stand at 80%.

The blow out win Bernie needs to have any kind of chance in SC and the SEC primary is looking less and less likely.

[Godhumor]

4. The maths suggest it

Winning by a couple of delegates or losing by a couple of delegates won't exactly shift the massive hurdle Bernie has in more diverse states. In order to stay competitive in delegate count is to crush Iowa and NH both.

If he can't, he has a huge problem on his hands.

[KingCharlemagne]

12. But I thought Hillary was inevitable? - nt

Last edited Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:43 PM - Edit history (1)

[morningfog]

2. He doesn't need a blowout. Best would be a

solid win. An near even split is all he really needs, at this point. Hillary's gonna get clobbered in NH. We'll go from there.

[cali]

3. Hilll fans declare Bernie must have blowout win

All he has to do is keeping it close.

[Old Codger]

5. He has

The fact that it is even close means he has Already defeated her, she and her fans just don't get it yet... I fit is a tie she loses, if it is even close she loses, she is a lost cause...

[Godhumor]

6. Ha! I was reading your WTF post in GD when I got the notification you posted here

Have to love meaningless coincidences.

...

That's it. I have no point to this post.

Cheers!

[stonecutter357]

7. K&R!

[sadoldgirl]

8. I wished that 538 would not make predictions

about states with caucuses. I live in one, and
in 08 we argued for at least an hour back and
forth. Minds were changed right there.

It also depends on how many people think that
this particular election would be very important,
which shows in attendance.

Lastly,and sadly it depends on the weather. If bad
a lot of good intentions to participate go down the
drain.

If they predict a primary state, that is much more
reliable, but caucuses are very different, because
a lot of people know their neighbors.

[LexVegas]

9. Bernie needs to win by a large margin in IA to remain viable. nt

[Logical]

13. LOL, OK, You sound like an expert. nt

[KingCharlemagne]

15. No, he doesnt. Even should he lose by 2-3 points, Sanders

will have destroyed the myth of Hillary's inevitability, the sole remainder ng argument for her candidacy.

[uponit7771]

17. That myth only lived in the minds of republicans and lazy MsM ... not progressives

[NurseJackie]

10. "Just like 2008!" ...

Only different!

[Logical]

14. Hilary is great at losing huge leads. Wonder why? nt

[BlueStreak]

11. I can't think of anything more irrelevant than Iowa.

In contested years, Iowa is only about 50% right. That is predictive of nothing. They are a little better with Dems than the Republicans. They never get the Republicans right.

New Hampshire is only about 50% right also. A coin flip is just as predictive.

Why does anybody waste any time with these things? They mean nothing at all.

[KingCharlemagne]

18. Mm, I guess Camp Weathervane didn't get the memo. - nt

[lunamagica]

16. K&R. Go Hillary!

[Kilgore]

19. Hmmmm, blowout?

Seems all the polls got it wrong.

[DrDan]

20. how did the polls get it wrong?

[Kilgore]

21. Don't think 0.4% qualifies as a "blowout"

And possibly not even a win since the results are not certified yet. Time will tell on this one.

[DrDan]

22. which polls suggested a blowoout?

[Kilgore]

23. Check out the PPP and Gravis final polls

+8 & +11

[DrDan]

24. were those the only two? - you said "all" of the polls

PPP had her at 48% - pretty darned close - they overestimated MOM at 7%