If Bernie Were Up By 3%, I'd Worry

[demwing]

The best case scenario in the DMR Poll would have had Bernie up by double digits, but no one expected (or even dreamed) that such a thing would happen, so there's no sense of loss.

Showing Bernie down by double digits would be disappointing for two reasons. First, the obvious - a supporter wants to see their candidate do well. Second - such a result would be just as unrealistic as a Bernie blow out, and would make many people skeptical about the validity of ANY poll. Bad stuff, it's true...but for a Sanders supporter, it would not be the worst option.

The worst case scenario would have had Bernie up by a tiny margin - exactly where Clinton finds herself now. Being a bit ahead might give your supporters a false sense of security, and on a bad-weather day, it could give the less experienced voters that little excuse they needed to convince themselves that it really wouldn't hurt much if they stayed home. That's not so much of a problem for Clinton, because her Iowa base are older, more experienced voters - but it's just the opposite for Bernie.

Being a bit behind, but well within the MOE, eliminates any potential inertia, and guarantees that NO ONE on team Bernie will sit this race out. This is an all-hands-on-deck situation.

That fact, along with the YUUGE, enthusiastic crowds Bernie is drawing in the Hawkeye State, makes me feel very good about Monday in Iowa.

[99th_Monkey]

1. That was my thought

when I tuned into the live broadcast of the poll results that had a visual
up with Bernie at 51% and Hillary at 39%, which was only referring to
the candidates' respective "if they talk like they care about people like you"
or not, but I didn't know that... I thought it was the over-all results, and
part of my when Oh no, I hope Sanders people still turn out to caucus.

I soon realized I wasn't seeing what I thought I was seeing, but I had
that same thought as you describe. So this may be the best possible
results from that viewpoint.

[LibDemAlways]

2. If the weather is bad, Hillary's older supporters are

more likely to stay home, especially if they think she's ahead so why bother. Bernie has generated much more enthusiasm, and his support is greatest among younger people who are less afraid of driving in bad weather. I predict a fantastic turnout for Bernie on Monday.

[JRLeft]

3. I don't know about that.

[comradebillyboy]

6. Us old farts are the dependable voters every time.

[morningfog]

4. I could not be happier about Monday.

Just think, 3 months ago, Hillary was up by 30 points. Thirty points. She's focused her resources there and it's a statistical tie two days out. I agree with your points. Monday will be a great kick off to the people speaking, rather than party insiders and political big wigs.

[Jarqui]

5. I was thinking something similar

My first reaction "good pollster ... oops ... not good"

If they had to be close and we knew they were, this is a pretty good position to be in. Because Bernie's supporters can't be complacent - they know they have to have a great ground effort.

Actions speak louder than words:

Hillary's supporters do not seem as enthusiastic

"Hillary stumped to a half-empty room in Dubuque, Iowa."
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/three-days-before-caucus-hillary-clinton-stumps-to-half-empty-room-in-dubuque-iowa/
"Only a couple hundred people showed up.
Of course, the mainstream media made it look like a respectable crowd with their camera tricks."
:large

Same town, Bernie drew 1,300


I think we've been seeing that a lot.

Hopefully, that's what we'll see Monday. Being a little behind in the polls may help to bring them out.