American Jewish Committee Poll: Obama Holds Huge Lead Among Jewish Voters (65-24)

[TroyD]

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 27, 2012

President Obama leads Mitt Romney 65 percent to 24 percent among Jewish voters, according to a new poll by the American Jewish Committee. According to the poll, Obama is handily winning every demographic within the community except Orthodox Jews, who go for Romney 54-40.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-obama-holds-huge-lead-among-jewish-voters

http://news.yahoo.com/ajc-national-survey-american-jewish-opinion-shows-obama-212400189.html

http://www.ajc.org/site/apps/nlnet/content2.aspx?c=ijITI2PHKoG&b=2818289&ct=12208959

http://www.ajc.org/site/apps/nlnet/content3.aspx?c=ijITI2PHKoG&b=846741&ct=12208961

[Behind the Aegis]

1. Shhhhh...These are facts.

[ellisonz]

7. +1

[woolldog]

2. wow, I'd expect the margin to be higher.

somewhat disappointing.

[TroyD]

3. Well it is smaller than 2008

But at least there's no question about which candidate has the most support.

One of the links does say that most of the undecided voters are leaning Obama, so maybe it will go up somewhat more on Election Day.

[IfPalinisAnswerWatsQ]

4. Don't worry.

I predict Obama will win 75% of Jewish voters on election day. Gore won 79%, Kerry won 75%, and Pres Obama won 78% in 2008. Republicans thought they were gonna get 35% of the Jewish vote in 2004 but the election results differed. It is difficult to accurately poll the Jewish population compared to other minority groups because it is such a small percentage of the population. So I see Obama losing 3-4 percentage points max from his 2008 performance with Jewish voters.

[Behind the Aegis]

5. I find it amazing it is never enough for some people.

[IfPalinisAnswerWatsQ]

8. Good point

Jews gave Obama more support than any other minority group except for blacks. The much celebrated non religious voters only gave him 70% or so. Jews gave him 78%, but it still isn't high enough for some.

Yet we still see all the attention focused on people like Adelson. Adelson is a minority in the Jewish community.

[Blue Yorker]

6. Your concern is baseless

Since the same pollster had Obama leading McCain by a 34% margin. http://www.haaretz.com/news/nyu-poll-two-thirds-of-u-s-jews-back-obama-over-mccain-1.285417

So instead of being worried you should be elated, since this pollster underestimates Obama's Jewish support, since Obama ended up winnin the Jewish vote by over 40%.

The margin in a poll should be compared to the margin in the same poll (apples vs. oranges) rather than comparing poll vs. past election results. Plus there are no undecided voters in an exit poll, since every respondent already voted. pre-election polls have undecided.

This thread has had few rec's so far probably because people didn't know the context which I provided above.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Good lead ... but Romney is doing better than McCain four years ago.

Last edited Fri Sep 28, 2012, 02:34 AM - Edit history (1)

Obama won the Jewish vote 78-21 in '08. While I anticipate his numbers will break 70%, the 24% is the best of any Republican candidate outside Bush in '04 dating back to '88.

[Behind the Aegis]

10. No, I did read correctly. You are claiming Romney is doing better.

Yet, McCain won 24%, which is where Romney is now. So how is that better?

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Sorry, I meant McCain won 21% of the Jewish vote ... not 24.

So, it was 78-21.

[Behind the Aegis]

12. OK. So, it was a simple typo.

NP.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Yes. Mind said '21', fingers decided to type '24'...

Of course, with only a 3 point difference, it's entirely possible it's nothing but sample and MOE. In fact, his numbers are almost identical to where they were in '08 at this point: