Path To Victory

[Stuckinthebush]

So let's play with numbers.

The image below shows the total number of delegates divided by state. A candidate needs 2383 to win the nomination. I started the spreadsheet with the number of superdelegates giving support to each candidate. I had a bear of a time finding the right number and I don't know if these are correct. But, I found 344 for Clinton and 12 for Sanders. As we all know, those can change and there are quite a few left over. I didn't make any assumptions about the ones left over.

Then, I took the most recent polling data and assigned a state's pledged delegates (not supers) to each candidate based on their share of the vote per polling. For states where I couldn't find polling data I split it down the middle.

But, I encourage each of you to click on the link below and copy and paste my spreadsheet into an Excel file on your computer. Play with the percentages. See what you get. What do you think your candidate's path to victory is based on your assumptions?

Fun and games. Lot's of prizes.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oIvjo0yXwShTp3yrE80PAhna_ZICnnhqDKy25--TIDw/pubhtml


Direct download of the excel file: http://www.filehosting.org/file/details/539517/Primary.xlsx

[thereismore]

1. Don't count your chickens!

[Stuckinthebush]

4. I'm not

I'm looking at numbers from polls and applying those percentages to number of state delegates.

[Thinkingabout]

2. In other words there is not a pathway for Sanders nomination.

[Stuckinthebush]

3. No, that's MY reading of the polls and how they relate to the path

Last edited Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:17 AM - Edit history (1)

Make your own. How does Sanders win? He can but what does he need in terms of margin of victory in the upcoming states?

But I do think he has a path.

[Walk away]

5. I don't know about anyplace else but the chances of Sanders getting 50% of New Jersey...

are laughable. He would have to be steamrolling through the rest of the country to eke out a third of the votes here.

[Stuckinthebush]

6. Likely true

I just didn't have any poll data for NJ

[Gothmog]

7. Clinton will have a significant lead after Super Tuesday

[Stuckinthebush]

12. I think that is true

The demographics of the Super Tuesday states benefit her greatly. Sanders hasn't had much movement in AA support. SC will be a rout by Hillary as will Alabama

[loyalsister]

8. Did you factor in any momentum changes

from wins in early primaries, potential resulting endorsements, privately held shifts in superdelegate commitments, or any of the other hundreds of unquantifiable variables?

It's way too early to make a credible final prediction. Particularly given that this has been a very fluid and unique primary. No one expected Bernie to gain this much traction.

[Stuckinthebush]

9. No

But I put up the spreadsheet for others to play with so you can model those types of effects. It's fun.

[loyalsister]

10. As I noted, there are a whole lot of unquantifyable impossible to predict variables

They can't be represented in a spreadsheet, but they could play a huge role in determining the outcome.

[Stuckinthebush]

11. They could

But historically there is a pattern that repeats. If there is a huge momentum shift in Iowa and NH then that may affect the later races, however, the polls don't indicate such. If anything there will be a small shift toward Sanders which won't have an effect on the southern or super tuesday races. Those races are pretty solid due to demographics.

But, one never knows. It's fun to play with numbers.