Hillary Clinton May Win Iowa After All

[Stuckinthebush]

The latest from Nate Silver

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-may-win-iowa-after-all/

It would be entirely reasonable to presume that Bernie Sanders has momentum in Iowa. He’s gained on Hillary Clinton in national polls. He keeps pulling further ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire. And he’s made substantial gains in Iowa relative to his position late last year. December polls of Iowa showed Sanders behind by an average of 16 percentage points; the race is much closer now.

There’s just one problem: Sanders’s momentum may have stalled right when it counts the most.

The Des Moines Register’s Iowa poll released Saturday, for example, had Clinton leading Sanders by 3 percentage points. That means Iowa is close and winnable for Sanders; polling errors of 5 or even 10 percentage points are not uncommon in the caucuses. But it also means that Sanders hasn’t gained on Clinton. The previous Des Moines Register poll, released earlier in January, showed Clinton up by 2 percentage points instead.

<snip>

What’s blunting Sanders’s progress? Actually, it might not have a lot to do with Sanders. Clinton isn’t an easy mark. She remains extremely popular with Democrats, including in Iowa, where her favorable rating was 81 percent in the Des Moines Register poll. (Sanders’s favorable rating was 82 percent in the same poll.)

And Clinton has an impressive ground game in Iowa, where she has field offices throughout the state and voter outreach tactics modeled more on President Obama’s successful 2008 campaign than her own failed one. Clinton’s campaign takes a highly localized approach to Iowa, I learned on a visit to her Davenport field office earlier this month, with volunteers responsible for contacting a parcel of voters in a particular neighborhood again and again until the caucuses.

[DCBob]

1. Bernie made a good run but he has finally hit his ceiling..

just short of the finish line.

[Stuckinthebush]

3. We will know tomorrow for sure

I'll be very interested in seeing how accurate the polling has been.

I think Clinton wins by a 3 point margin. I'll going with the Des Moines Register poll.

[Bjorn Against]

16. I wish I had a dollar for every time you told us Bernie has hit his ceiling

You have ben telling us that Bernie had hit his ceiling for months and you have been proven wrong time and time again yet you keep declaring new ceilings for him no matter how many times he breaks through the old ceiling you had set.

It is quite humorous to watch you be proven wrong on where his ceiling is repeatedly yet you still seem to think you have credibility when you declare a new ceiling.

[MoonRiver]

20. I don't count my chickens before they're hatched.

But it's looking good for our girl!

[Live and Learn]

28. And how many times have you predicted that before?

But please, keep adding to your unproven track record.

[DCBob]

31. We will know soon enough.

[Plucketeer]

35. The raw evidence is in these dismal images.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511104408

[ypsfonos]

2. Wishful thinking

Whistling past the graveyard much Nate?

[Stuckinthebush]

5. I doubt Nate cares who wins

He's in it for the thrill of the stats.

[musicblind]

25. Nate is completely unbiased and extremely accurate.

He doesn't care who wins, he cares about the accuracy of his award winning model in predicting outcomes based on statistics.

[Sancho]

4. If a few professors have exams on Monday, Sanders would lose half his supporters...

Iowa caucuses are crazy because there's more weird stuff than reality compared to actual Presidential elections.

[Stuckinthebush]

6. What time do they start and finish?

I know that the caucus process is wild but how long do they last?

[marlakay]

7. Caucus is at night

It would have to be a night class. This time of year wouldnt be a final so i would skip class too important.

[artislife]

18. I know in Washington State, you don't even have to be present

https://vimeo.com/153382464?ref=fb-share

Looking into it, for a friend. She is supposed to be in a wedding out of state on March 26th

[tblue37]

30. Exams on Tuesday = stay home to study Monday evening. nt

[SidDithers]

8. DU rec...nt

Sid

[mikehiggins]

9. Sanders was 18 points behind Hillery in December. Where was he in June/

Silvers talks about momentum but the reality is the Sanders campaign came out of nowhere and now challenges the formerly "inevitable" HRC.

All of the lies to the effect that HRC's campaign ALWAYS expected a robust challenge to her running are out-and-out nonsense. At worst they thought Warren might run and cause them problems but it was soon obvious she's not interested in the joy or the campaign. What a sigh of relief flowed through the Clinton campaign. This was going to be a slam dunk.

uhhh, Nope...

[asuhornets]

23. Slam dunk or not..

A win is a win and a loss is a loss.

[dflprincess]

34. Not always

Contrary to how many remember it, Eugene McCarthy did not win the New Hampshire primary. He got 40% of the vote. But that was enough against a sitting president for Johnson to see the handwriting on the wall and for most to consider it a "moral" victory.

Given how far Bernie has come, if he finishes within a few points of Clinton in Iowa (and NH for that matter), I'd call it a victory.

[Beartracks]

38. These days, politicians call 51% a "mandate."

=====================

[Skwmom]

10. Just ignore the help from the GOP. n/t

[musicblind]

26. Nate is not affiliated with the GOP. n/t

[jfern]

11. Nate always had Hillary as the favored candidate

So what does he mean by after all?

[Stuckinthebush]

12. After all of the momentum by Sanders

That's my assumption

[HereSince1628]

13. One the one hand, she might, on the other she might not

We'll know by Tuesday either way.

[RoccoR5955]

14. Doesn't Nate work for an outfit

that endorses Clinton?
Just wondering.
If he does, does this not make this a biased presumption?

[Stuckinthebush]

15. ESPN?

I'm not sure but I don't think so. I'll look into it.

[RoccoR5955]

19. Don't you mean Disney?

They own ESPN. I think Hearst has a piece of it too.

[Stuckinthebush]

21. Ha! They own everything!

I freaking hate Disney. Damn mouse!

[bowens43]

17. LOL I think we heard that once before......

she should do the right thing and drop out now, she is an embarrassment to our party and our country.

[LexVegas]

22. Bernie and his bros are overmatched. nt

[JonLeibowitz]

37. Bullshit sexist meme. Sanders leads with young women, substantially.

[KingCharlemagne]

24. Turnout is everything, as is the weather. - nt

[Stuckinthebush]

27. On that we agree

It'll be a tight one.

[KingCharlemagne]

29. I was impressed at Sanders' tactical savvy in arranging for the youth vote to be

Distributed back to home precincts (rather than concentrated in college town precincts). I have not heard anything about how effective the efforts have proved yet, but someone in the Sanders campaign has some fearsome chops.

[pangaia]

32. How in the world can anybody get excited about Hillary CLinton winning..anything?

I mean she has been running against a guy from one of the smallest states in the US who refuses dirty money and who a year ago almost nobody ever heard of.

Win or 'lose', Bernie has cleaned her clock.

[Stuckinthebush]

33. I'm excited

But then again I'm a supporter.

[joeybee12]

42. I am excited

Bernie has done nothing like what you claim. Get out of the echo chamber

[Ed Suspicious]

36. I think Nate should maybe wait and see. I'm not buying his

mobile goalpost prognostication.

[Stuckinthebush]

40. Well that's what he does

It'll be interesting to see which of the pollsters and prognosticators were the most accurate. Models are everything to pollsters. It'll be fun to see who gets it right.

[davidn3600]

39. Your attempt to discourage Bernie supporters before the caucus isn't going to work

Sorry.

[Stuckinthebush]

41. Damn

and I was trying so hard!



I really am not. I'm just posting primary related information to GD-P - the place for primary related postings regardless of candidate.

I'm sure that Sanders supporters will be out in droves. No doubt about that. As I said above, it will be a tight race.

[CSStrowbridge]

44. It's scary stuff...

It's scary that some Bernie Supporters think posting analysis by one of the best in the business is a nefarious plan to hurt Bernie Sanders' chances. That's Conspiracy Theory thinking there.

[Stuckinthebush]

45. Lot's of tinfoil these days

Reynolds stock must be doing great.

[joeybee12]

43. scary if you really think that nt

[Flying Squirrel]

46. If anything

It would just drive Bernie supporters to the polls to try and prove Nate wrong.

Iowa is must-win for Hillary, not so much for Bernie. She can't put so many resources into Iowa and come out without a win, it just isn't possible to spin that positively.

Bernie, on the other hand, can credibly claim that if he'd had another week or so he may have overtaken her. Then there's his continuing massive fundraising and the fact that he has better organizations in the upcoming states... Coming close in Iowa is good enough for him at this point.

[Stuckinthebush]

47. Actually, the analysis has been the opposite

I do agree that it is important for Clinton to have a good showing but a win isn't as important for her as it is for Sanders.

It's all optics. If he wins he can use that momentum to push him a little higher in March states. But, Clinton has a massive lead in SC and Super Tuesday states because of demographics and she knows it.

I'd say if he doesn't win Iowa then he will need to win NH by a lot (which he will) and then try to use that momentum.