Yes, a Blow Out is Possible

[babylonsister]

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2012/9/27/205151/119

Yes, a Blow Out is Possible

by BooMan
Thu Sep 27th, 2012 at 08:51:51 PM EST


I don't like to mince words. Mitt Romney is getting slapped around worse than Cory Booker after a Meet the Press appearance. There are redheaded stepchildren and rented mules who are having an easier time of it than the Mittster. In Nate Silver's model, if the election were held today, Romney would have a 2.2% chance of winning. His chances on November 6th are down to 18.1%, and they are only that high because Silver is still assuming a bit of a convention bounce and some economic headwinds that will keep Obama's numbers down. In any case, things are bad enough that Silver decided to try to figure out if Obama could possibly do as well or better in November as he did in 2008. ...

snip//

And there's something else to consider. President Obama has proved himself. We don't have to wonder about a 3 am phone call anymore. If you look at Nate Silver's chart, Obama has improved his position the most in states like West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. That's because he isn't so exotic and untested anymore. It may also be because Mitt Romney is a Mormon. Obama isn't going to win in those deep red states, but he has improved his position simply by going to work every day and doing a competent job.

Something else to look at are Nate Silver's charts on the projected popular vote and the projected likelihood of victory. Both charts show a basically uninterrupted upward trajectory for Obama from June until today. The only downward slope in the charts is from an adjustment Silver imposed to counteract a possibly temporary post-convention bounce. Every day the campaign goes on, Obama's projected share of the vote goes up. We all know there must be a ceiling, but it's anybody's guess when Obama will hit it.

What's limiting the size of Obama's potential victory are two factors. The first is that Romney and outside groups have enough money to keep Obama pinned in the battleground states. The second is that there are only a few states out there that Obama narrowly lost in 2008. To win more than one or two extra states, he needs get his share of the popular vote up to the very high 50's, which is not easy to do. Romney will give him a shot at it though. I have seen nothing from him to indicate that he will stop bleeding before Election Day. Early voting might even be a curse.

What models and conventional wisdom can't measure is a disaster of the magnitude of the Romney/Ryan campaign.

[flamingdem]

1. Bottom Line: the Supremes

going forward, Tweety dealing with this now, whew imagine Mittster and his choices.. if we could get the populace to understand the danger the blow out would be bigger!

[mstinamotorcity2]

2. The Media says it every day.

The people who are voting for Romney is because they Hate This President!! Its their only reason. So there will be no getting them to understand. I almost feel sorry for them.

[Dawson Leery]

3. k/r