Why winning Iowa is good news for Clinton

[Donald Ian Rankin]

Last edited Wed Feb 3, 2016, 01:29 PM - Edit history (1)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/

There’s another theory, however, that probably does more to explain Sanders’s standing in Iowa and New Hampshire, and it’s really simple. Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa and Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire are really liberal and really white, and that’s the core of Sanders’s support.

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On Edit: The above is a quote, the below is my own thoughts, in case this wasn't clear.

If Sanders can't win in Iowa, he may well win in New Hampshire and Vermont, but Clinton probably doesn't have to worry too much about too many other states.

It's too soon to be totally confident, but if you support Sanders then this is worse news than the margin of victory might make it look, and if - like me - you think that a Sanders victory would essentially hand the next presidency to the Republicans on a platter - then it's reassuring.

[floriduck]

1. Still no WA State numbers so this is

flawed at best. It was posted yesterday and my comment still hasn't been addressed.

Sorry.

[Avalux]

2. That's all they have left, the "really liberal and really white" argument.

We'll see how long that supposed firewall holds out for them. As far as 538 goes, they don't have a crystal ball, as we've seen before.

[Cartoonist]

3. He just declare his partisanship

And threw all journalistic integrity out the window.

and if - like me - you think that a Sanders victory would essentially hand the next presidency to the Republicans on a platter - then it's reassuring.

Thankfully, I'm not like him.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

4. No, those are my lines.

Only the part in the [quote] box is a quote, although I admit I should have made that clearer.

[Armstead]

5. Isnlt that the same outfit that said Bernie was sure to be beaten by a large margin?

[hack89]

7. No

They simply said Sanders was the underdog. He was given a 20% chance to win.

[NCTraveler]

6. "Why winning Iowa is good news for Clinton"

Because one looks foolish trying to spin a loss as a win. Much better to win and claim a win.

Thanks for the info.