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anti partisan

(429 posts)
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 11:03 AM Feb 2016

Bernie proves he is more electable with shocking new poll numbers.

If Team Clinton wants to pretend like Clinton is more electable than Bernie, they could start by showing something other than the exact opposite in the polls.

Source: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us02052016_Ust53w.pdf

General election matchups among American voters show:
 Clinton tops Trump 46 – 41 percent, Sanders thumps Trump 49 – 39 percent
 Clinton ties Cruz 45 – 45 percent, Sanders edges Cruz 46 – 42 percent
 Clinton trails Rubio 48 – 41 percent, Sanders and Rubio are tied 43 – 43 percent

So as of now, if the Democratic Party wants to beat the three stooges leading the GOP, they would be wise to nominate Bernie. You simply can't argue otherwise.

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Bernie proves he is more electable with shocking new poll numbers. (Original Post) anti partisan Feb 2016 OP
Just remember that Mondale polled within MoE with Reagan at this point. Then lost by 18 points. stevenleser Feb 2016 #1
Correct - the only exception is when Hillary is leading. Then polls matter. closeupready Feb 2016 #3
LOL!! Fawke Em Feb 2016 #6
Nope, same rules apply. nt stevenleser Feb 2016 #8
Hope you are well, amigo. closeupready Feb 2016 #11
I proudly stand with Steven Leser v2.0.08, that dude was a keen judge of character Fumesucker Feb 2016 #19
He truly was! His description of HRC was spot on. kath Feb 2016 #24
Stop it! in_cog_ni_to Feb 2016 #25
There were crooks on Nixons staff too INdemo Feb 2016 #45
Hillary shares some of Reagan's policies, so that's a fitting comparison. n/t Gore1FL Feb 2016 #47
It's simple to see a key reason why: Jarqui Feb 2016 #2
That is true. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #7
They're not shocking to me! Fawke Em Feb 2016 #4
Krispy Kreme ummmmmmm greiner3 Feb 2016 #46
HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!! WillyT Feb 2016 #5
The differences aren't even in the margin of error anymore. Bernie outperforms Hillary in the GE! reformist2 Feb 2016 #9
that is flat out false dsc Feb 2016 #31
Wait Until Republican Billions Paint Him as Karl Marx Stallion Feb 2016 #10
It isn't 1968 anymore. (nt) jeff47 Feb 2016 #12
Meaning what? Nt thucythucy Feb 2016 #14
That campaign slogans from the cold war are nowhere near as effective. (nt) jeff47 Feb 2016 #18
Okay, that makes sense. thucythucy Feb 2016 #22
but.... jham123 Feb 2016 #26
Meaning what? Trajan Feb 2016 #20
In general I agree. thucythucy Feb 2016 #27
It also happened in 2004 NewJeffCT Feb 2016 #43
Well, that's going to be the case whoever gets the nomination. thucythucy Feb 2016 #49
I think there is a difference, though NewJeffCT Feb 2016 #50
I have the same concern. thucythucy Feb 2016 #54
No it's not... the revolution is on! Time to join in. InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2016 #15
He hasn't been vetted yeoman6987 Feb 2016 #28
Are you operating under the illusion that the Clinton campaign is incompetent? (nt) jeff47 Feb 2016 #30
That is a point. Can he be that clean? It just seems that when getting starts, something is found yeoman6987 Feb 2016 #34
It doesn't matter how clean he is NewJeffCT Feb 2016 #44
It's what's known that IS the problem 2pooped2pop Feb 2016 #56
Exactly the Republicans haven't touched him, I wonder why? They even doc03 Feb 2016 #21
You mean like the TV pundits do every time he has a sit down interview? A Simple Game Feb 2016 #40
WOLVERINES!!1 frylock Feb 2016 #42
I really think that's why the youth vote is buying into this. They don't remember 1984 or 1972 stevenleser Feb 2016 #48
Republicans tried to paint Obama a Muslim. HooptieWagon Feb 2016 #53
Any Democrat is going to be painted as Karl Marx. Odin2005 Feb 2016 #55
Can you feel it ????? SamKnause Feb 2016 #13
I'm feelin' it! Bernie rocked last night... best debate performance ever! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2016 #17
loooooove it FrostyAusty Feb 2016 #35
Heartening news. thucythucy Feb 2016 #16
knr amborin Feb 2016 #23
If speaktruthtopower Feb 2016 #29
As Bernie wins more contests, his numbers will get better and better CoffeeCat Feb 2016 #32
Thank you for saying it, CoffeeCat! SoapBox Feb 2016 #41
National Polls? Shocking? kenn3d Feb 2016 #33
K & R! TIME TO PANIC Feb 2016 #36
Bernie!! AzDar Feb 2016 #37
What I see as very hopeful for Sanders is this small datum: thereismore Feb 2016 #38
In reading over the poll/pdf I couldn't tell WHO was being polled ... 99th_Monkey Feb 2016 #39
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2016 #51
When he says I have a plan he tells us the plan without statements like " Experts agree my plan " orpupilofnature57 Feb 2016 #52
 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
1. Just remember that Mondale polled within MoE with Reagan at this point. Then lost by 18 points.
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 11:05 AM
Feb 2016

The GE polls dont matter at this point. They start mattering in the June-August timeframe when the two nominees or presumptive nominees start trying to define each other.

Jarqui

(10,150 posts)
2. It's simple to see a key reason why:
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 11:07 AM
Feb 2016

Independents hate Hillary. Have for years. Republicans hate her more than Sanders as well.

She's so well known, that's really hard for her to turn around.

 

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)
7. That is true.
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 11:23 AM
Feb 2016

Sanders brings a lot of fresh blood into the party, in the form of millenials who are disgusted with the current status of both parties, and are Independants or had given up on the political process. They know the system is rigged against them, they live and breathe it every day. Sanders is their voice, Hillary is not. They view her as part of the problem, not part of the solution.

Fawke Em

(11,366 posts)
4. They're not shocking to me!
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 11:16 AM
Feb 2016

I was sitting in the drive-thru at Dunkin waiting on my morning coffee when I heard Bill Press announce this.

I was so happy, I cheered and teared up. I'm sure people were wondered what I was doing in my car.

I probably didn't need the coffee after that, but I still love Dunkin's coffee (but I like Krispy Kreme's donuts better).

 

greiner3

(5,214 posts)
46. Krispy Kreme ummmmmmm
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 01:36 PM
Feb 2016

Some years ago I was headhunter to manage one. Due to circumstaces I turned it down. But hell, I'd weigh 400 lbs now. It's a toss up which is/was the right choice

Stallion

(6,477 posts)
10. Wait Until Republican Billions Paint Him as Karl Marx
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 11:29 AM
Feb 2016

some of us have been down this road 4-5 times. Republicans are holding their fire on Bernie because he's hurting Clinton. Clinton can't do it because she is gonna need support from Bernie's voters. Its a mirage.

thucythucy

(8,262 posts)
22. Okay, that makes sense.
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 12:02 PM
Feb 2016

It's just that your comment was so cryptic I couldn't tell what it was you were trying to say.

I'd qualify it by saying there are still pockets, large pockets, in this country where cold war slogans (generally anti-left, anti-union, anti "big government"--not to mention racist, sexist, homophobic, and anti-Semitic themes) still prevail. But neither Bernie nor Hillary are ever going to win over those folks anyway, so it makes no sense to tailor any sort of message or policy for them, since this would only hurt us among independents who remain to be swayed. Not to mention that any policy such people support is bound to be bat-shit crazy.

In part too, it depends on current events. If the US is hit again in a major attack like 9-11, carried out by foreigners, the whole "who's strongest against terror" question will re-emerge with a vengeance. This is the closest thing we have now to the "who lost China" nonsense of the 1950s, which was exploited so well by Republicans (and which ended up with the Democratic Party taking a sharp swerve to the right. People forget how conservative JFK was viewed by the liberal wing of the Democratic Party).

Hopefully Senator Sanders, who's run a pretty brilliant campaign thus far, would be able to counter such attacks at least as well as Secretary Clinton. That's my hope, anyway.

Best wishes.

jham123

(278 posts)
26. but....
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 12:09 PM
Feb 2016
Bernie nor Hillary are ever going to win over those folks anyway, so it makes no sense to tailor any sort of message or policy for them


But that doesn't stop Her from trying.....and that is the problem
 

Trajan

(19,089 posts)
20. Meaning what?
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 11:55 AM
Feb 2016

Last edited Fri Feb 5, 2016, 01:13 PM - Edit history (1)

"He's been down that road 4 or 5 times now ..."

An obvious reference to the previous attempts by "Liberal" candidates to win the presidency ...

They were largely unsuccessful ... Yet, that has no bearing whatsoever on how a Bernie campaign would proceed ...

It's a different era, with different problems, so analogies to past efforts have no bearing on what we might expect THIS time around ...

Bernie is not McGovern ... He is not Hubert Humphrey ... He is not Dukakis or Mondale ...

It's a new era ... A new moment in American history .. the people are tired of the nonsense ... Same ole same ole isn't going to cut it ...

Vote for Optimism and Hope ... Vote for Bernie 2016 ...

thucythucy

(8,262 posts)
27. In general I agree.
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 12:10 PM
Feb 2016

See my post above.

"Socialism" as a swear word is certainly losing its sting. Those for whom it's still a big issue were never going to vote for either of our candidates anyway.

The McGovern campaign was my first political experience (I worked as a volunteer, ended up at the national convention in Miami Beach). I DO see similarities between Senator McGovern and Senator Sanders, but not in the way most people would think. McGovern was a decent forthright man who would have made a great president, certainly far better than Tricky Dick. And people forget that, coming out of the national conventions, the polls had Nixon and McGovern running neck and neck. McGovern's biggest mistake by far was trying to placate what was then the Democratic Party establishment by picking Eagleton as his running mate. A disaster of epic proportions. The lesson to me was: don't be so eager to compromise your principles.

Best wishes.

NewJeffCT

(56,830 posts)
43. It also happened in 2004
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 01:15 PM
Feb 2016

Howard Dean was the early frontrunner due to his anti-war stance and was polling ahead of Bush, then lost Iowa and the media jumped on him over the post loss "Dean Scream" and his numbers tanked and it was over for him. Then, John Kerry was ahead of Bush until August of 2004, then got Swiftboated and never recovered, losing in a nailbiter.

When Sanders gets hit with the 2016 version of Willie Horton or the Swiftboaters, he won't even be allowed to respond in the media. And, he'll go the way of previous New England standard bearers like Dukakis, Dean and Kerry.

Somebody on DU published all the responses Kerry made in 2004 to the Swift Boaters, but none of them got enough air time to matter. The same will happen to Sanders when they misquote him or take him out of context - he'll respond, his surrogates will respond, Rachel Maddow and others will respond, but it won't make it onto the regularly nightly news, the newspapers or the sunday morning talk shows.

thucythucy

(8,262 posts)
49. Well, that's going to be the case whoever gets the nomination.
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 05:49 PM
Feb 2016

What we have to hope is that whoever gets the nod will be politically savvy enough to counter what's bound to be a GOP shit fest of epic proportions.

President Obama was able to do it, as was President (Bill) Clinton.

My feeling is that Democrats are almost always the underdogs, certainly on the national level. Certain blue states are the exception, but by and large the system is always rigged against progressives.

Best wishes.

NewJeffCT

(56,830 posts)
50. I think there is a difference, though
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 06:00 PM
Feb 2016

I'm not a big fan of Hillary, but all of her issues have been out in the public for 25 or so years now - she's been through the wringer and is still leading or tied with the leading Republicans. What are they going to do - bring up Benghazi, Monica Lewinsky, Vince Foster or emails again and again? There's really not much more that's going to move the lever against her.

My concern with Bernie is that will he be able to withstand the kind of withering assault he'll get with $1 billion to $2 billion of deceptive attack ads? I'm not sure his operation is the well oiled machine that Obama had in place in both 2008 and 2012.

thucythucy

(8,262 posts)
54. I have the same concern.
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 10:23 PM
Feb 2016

Honestly, in terms of this particular issue, I really don't know. On the one hand Senator Clinton has all these negatives, but as you say, it's all been hashed out endlessly, and unless there's something else we've yet to hear (always a possibility) at least we'll know the general gist of the attacks the GOP will mount.

Bernie, on the other hand, seems at this point rather squeaky clean, but as has been pointed out, he hasn't received nearly the kind of intense scrutiny that Hillary has.

To some degree it hardly matters, in the sense that whoever the candidate is, the Republicans will attack attack attack. I thought John Kerry's record in Vietnam was unassailable, I had no idea "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" would have such an impact (and obviously neither did he).

I think Rubio right now is the candidate on the other side who worries me the most. Like the others, his agenda is horrific, his personal ethics highly questionable. But the media dubs him "serious" and "personable"--a replay of the "who would you want to have a beer with" nonsense that helped Bush II steal the day.

Whoever our candidate is, I'll support him or her to the best of my means and ability. That's the only thing I know for absolute sure right now.

Best wishes, and hang in there!

 

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)
28. He hasn't been vetted
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 12:12 PM
Feb 2016

Everything from birth to now will be under the microscope. Hillary has nothing left that isn't known.

 

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)
34. That is a point. Can he be that clean? It just seems that when getting starts, something is found
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 12:20 PM
Feb 2016

Maybe he is the most moral human being. That would be nice.

NewJeffCT

(56,830 posts)
44. It doesn't matter how clean he is
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 01:17 PM
Feb 2016

Do you think Karl Rove or the Koch Brothers super pac are going to care if he's clean? they'll just take his words out of context and twist them around to fit their message. It works all the time.

doc03

(35,613 posts)
21. Exactly the Republicans haven't touched him, I wonder why? They even
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 12:00 PM
Feb 2016

ran an ad in Iowa calling him a socialist to draw votes away from Hillary, the old reverse psychology trick. Funny how history repeats itself, we went through the same program with Obama. Obama got the far left and youth vote then when he didn't get 100% of what he
promised they turned their back on him and we lost the House and are just hanging onto the Senate by a thread. Bernie Sanders has zero percent chance of getting anything he is promising enacted. Wait till the Karl Marx ads and Sanders face with the hammer and sickle ads come out.

A Simple Game

(9,214 posts)
40. You mean like the TV pundits do every time he has a sit down interview?
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 12:40 PM
Feb 2016

Doesn't seem to bother Bernie, in fact he does so well I suspect he is planting the questions.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
48. I really think that's why the youth vote is buying into this. They don't remember 1984 or 1972
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 01:47 PM
Feb 2016

I don't "remember" 1972 either, but I have educated myself on the subject.

But I remember 1984 vividly as the last time a Democratic nominee proposed middle class tax increases. And Mondale didn't have the whole Socialism thing with which to contend.

As you said, some of us have been down this road. We know why things look as they do now and what it would become. Sanders current numbers vs Republicans is a mirage as you so eloquently put it.

 

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)
53. Republicans tried to paint Obama a Muslim.
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 07:09 PM
Feb 2016

Didn't work. Only the dumbest of republicans are going to believe Sanders is a Communist, and they're not voting for ANY Democrat.

thucythucy

(8,262 posts)
16. Heartening news.
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 11:45 AM
Feb 2016

I'm hoping both the Sanders campaign, and more and more elected Democrats, are now planning the pivot from the primary into the general. The GOP is going to be brutal, no matter who the Democratic nominee is, and we have to be prepared.

That said, this is better news than I expected at this point.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
32. As Bernie wins more contests, his numbers will get better and better
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 12:15 PM
Feb 2016

He's going to win NH by wide margins. The spin on the inter tubes will be that this was expected, ho hum.

However, the impending states that are voting combined with the general electorate will see that Sanders went from nothing to a tie in Iowa and a win in NH.

Clinton will no longer have her "inevitability" or "most electable" memes to fall back on. Those two memes were the psychological backbone of her entire campaign.

That's all we heard in Iowa. For months!

Without her magical memes, I say that her support continues to erode; and more flock to Bernie in droves.

SoapBox

(18,791 posts)
41. Thank you for saying it, CoffeeCat!
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 12:41 PM
Feb 2016

Every minute, of every day...Americans are learning about Bernie and his common sense, MAINSTREAM message. He's consistent, honest and authentic.

We need him to lead us through a complete change in this country.

kenn3d

(486 posts)
33. National Polls? Shocking?
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 12:16 PM
Feb 2016

Historically, the national polls have not been very meaningful this far out from the GE. Although the relative comparisons in successive surveys by the same pollster may offer insights to the broader trends.

This Quinnipiac poll is either a BIG outlier, or may be pointing to a dramatic trend change that's just beginning to emerge.

Prior Qpoll: Clinton 61 / Sanders 30 (Clinton +31)
New Qpoll: Clinton 44 / Sanders 42 (Clinton +2)


This is a 29pt swing from the same pollster using the same sample size and methodology over a 6 week period.

This is indeed shocking imo.

thereismore

(13,326 posts)
38. What I see as very hopeful for Sanders is this small datum:
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 12:37 PM
Feb 2016

Favorability among black people:

Hillary: 73 favorable
20 unfavorable
5 haven't heard enough


Bernie: 55 favorable
14 unfavorable
31 haven't heard enough

Folks, this shows that Bernie has a chance to be accepted by the black community, because 31% haven't heard enough. I think that means 31% of black people still keep an open mind about him.

Currently, the % unfavorable is lower for Bernie than Hillary. Bernie can win the black vote if he is able to introduce himself to the black community properly and show them that he cares about black lives in ways other than just economic. Yesterday at the debate he showed that he understands that things in Flint would have been different had Flint been a white community. I think he needs to continue in this direction and if he is able to express his beliefs, he will win the black vote and he will be the next POTUS.
 

99th_Monkey

(19,326 posts)
39. In reading over the poll/pdf I couldn't tell WHO was being polled ...
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 12:38 PM
Feb 2016

.. is it just D's and R's or are Independents (that make up 44% of the electorate) also included
in the people polled.

They clearly only polled registered voters, because some questions say "among D's, or among R's".

but I don't see anything that tells me if Indies were also polled, so I'm assuming they weren't.

Response to anti partisan (Original post)

 

orpupilofnature57

(15,472 posts)
52. When he says I have a plan he tells us the plan without statements like " Experts agree my plan "
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 06:34 PM
Feb 2016

Without identifying the Experts or the plan !!!!

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