2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumYes NH is next-door to VT, But if Bernie wins big it will be a disastrous indication for Hillary.
The normal reason politicians of neighboring states might have an advantage in an early primary is that that candidate has more name recognition and is more well known. That is certainly true of Bernie in NH. NH voters also are quite familiar with who Hillary is, just like anywhere else in the country. So being from a neighboring state is actually only a level field for Bernie, not any kind of advantage.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)We saw IA and all the complaints that are coming out. NH we shall see.
HassleCat
(6,409 posts)Bernie would have to prevail by a big, big margin to make it a major disaster for Clinton. Something like 30 points would raise the possibility that voters were ready to give up on her, but even that could quickly be reversed by South Carolina. It's kind of a an American tradition to make a big deal about New Hampshire, then ignore the results and move on to the next primary.
oasis
(49,393 posts)thucythucy
(8,080 posts)and any loss damages her "electability" credentials.
The real question is: will Bernie be able to build on the momentum he's picked up in Iowa and New Hampshire, and sway Democratic voters in states that aren't so homogeneous?
If he begins to build support in Ohio, New York, South Carolina, Virginia... that's when the wheels come off of Secretary Clinton's campaign.
stevebreeze
(1,877 posts)Yes the right will bash Bernie, much like they have Hilary, and Bill And Barack. So what?
thucythucy
(8,080 posts)in the primaries, chances are she won't be able to sway independents either. Same goes for Bernie.
brush
(53,794 posts)Sanders is from the next state over. Of course he'll win.
After Iowa and New Hampshire, whose importance and low delegate count is only that they are first and second, the real battle begins.
We'll know what's up after that.