STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 16, 2016
Last edited Tue Feb 16, 2016, 11:56 PM - Edit history (2)
[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32 (Sanders +4)
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 394, Sanders 44 (Clinton +350)
Versus Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.
Next Primary
Nevada caucuses, February 20 (35 pledged delegates).
Targets (Cook): Clinton 16, Sanders 19.[/font]
[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
South Carolina (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 59, Sanders 40 (Clinton +19)
South Carolina (Gravis): Clinton 59, Sanders 41 (Clinton +18).
South Carolina (PPP): Clinton 55, Sanders 34 (Clinton +21).
Virginia (CNU): Clinton 52, Sanders 40 (Clinton +12).
South Carolina (CNN/ORC): Clinton 56, Sanders 38 (Clinton +18).
South Carolina (ARG): Clinton 61, Sanders 31 (Clinton +30)
Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Sanders 51%.
South Carolina: Clinton >99%.
Virginia: Clinton 84%.
Michigan: Clinton 97%.
North Carolina: Clinton 95%.
Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 467, Sanders 2.[/font]
[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Versus Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 74%, Rubio 15%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 75, Bush 51, Kasich 20.[/font]
Comments
Hillary's target in Virginia is modestly higher than Bernie's, 49 to 46, which means she needs about 52% of the vote. According to the Christopher Newport University poll, which was taken both before and after NH, that's exactly what she has, and if the undecideds break evenly that will give her 56%, which would be 53 delegates. However, the margin of error for that poll is 7.3.
The SC targets of 28 and 25 are unchanged, which means Hillary needs around 53% of the vote. Currently she's polling a bit under 60%. As for Nevada, Bernie needs at least 19 pledged delegates there, which is around 54% of the vote. 538 still has it as a tossup based on that single GOP pro-Bernie push poll.
Bernie has taken a tiny lead in 538's Nevada projection -- but to be honest, I have no idea what has gone into it. The push poll from a few days ago is still the only poll in town; that hasn't changed. I know that there are other factors that go into the projections besides polls, however, so I'll take Nate's word for it. Meanwhile, another confirmation of Hillary's 18-points-or-greater lead in South Carolina.
How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates and superdelegates. Superdelegates are not bound to any one candidate, and while the count reflects their stated intentions, they can change their minds before the convention.
The targets are taken from the Cook Political Report's model, based on superdelegate endorsement and demographic conditions favorable to each candidate, and represent the number of delegates each candidate must win in each state in order to stay on track to tie for the nomination. The targets are current as of February 12. The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the projections indicate the probability that the candidate will win that state.
Additions and changes made after the thread is posted will be denoted by italics.
If you have a suggestion for a scorecard or model not covered above, let me know. If this post is useful to you, please K&R!
[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
If you see a Hillary supporter using a lowercase letter, capitalize on it![/font]
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