STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 19, 2016
Last edited Fri Feb 19, 2016, 04:54 PM - Edit history (1)
Last updated: 2:54 PM CST
[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 481, Sanders 55 (Clinton +426)
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32 (Sanders +4)
Versus Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.
Next Primary
Nevada caucuses, February 20 (35 pledged delegates).
Targets (Cook): Clinton 16, Sanders 19.[/font]
[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
Nevada (Gravis): Clinton 53, Sanders 47 (Clinton +6).
South Carolina (Monmouth): Clinton 59, Sanders 30 (Clinton +29).
North Carolina (SurveyUSA): Clinton 51, Sanders 36 (Clinton +15).
South Carolina (Seltzer & Co): Clinton 53, Sanders 31 (Clinton +22).
South Carolina (Fox News): Clinton 56, Sanders 28 (Clinton +28).
South Carolina (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 60, Sanders 32 (Clinton +28).
Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Clinton 72%.
South Carolina: Clinton >99%.
Arkansas: Clinton 99%
Georgia: Clinton >99%.
Oklahoma: Clinton 78%.
Tennessee: Clinton 99%.
Texas: Clinton 98%.
Virginia: Clinton 98%.
Michigan: Clinton 94%.
North Carolina: Clinton 97%.
Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 468, Sanders 3.[/font]
[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Versus Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 78%, Rubio 11%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 91, Bush 51, Cruz 21.[/font]
Comments
Happy Friday!
So just as we Hillary fans resigned ourselves to losing most of New Hampshire's 24 pledged delegates, so now have Bernie fans seemed to resign themselves to losing most of South Carolina's 53 delegates. The question is, how much will he lose by?
According to Cook's model (which has not yet been updated to factor in the 87 additional superdelegates Hillary has lately received, or the handful that Bernie also picked up), Bernie doesn't need to win South Carolina to stay on track for the nomination. But he does need to come close: he needs 25 delegates to Hillary's 28. Currently he is projected to get at most 40% of the vote, which would give him about 21 delegates to Hillary's 32. Barring a Bernie blowout in the Silver State on Saturday, this will give Hillary the lead in pledged delegates.
What about Super Tuesday? Bernie will win Vermont, of course, and almost certainly meet his target of 11 delegates to Hillary's 5. My guess is that he'll take Massachusetts pretty easily -- and he'd better; his target is 56 delegates to Hillary's 35.
The last poll here in Minnesota was 59-25 Clinton, but that's from late January, and Minnesota is a caucus state, so Bernie has a pretty good chance here (target is 45 to Hillary's 32). Colorado's last and only poll of 55-27 Clinton is from November, and again it's a caucus state, so again Bernie's got a good chance there (target 36 to Hillary's 30).
Beyond that? Assuming Bernie picks up all the undecideds in Alabama, he'll get about 21 delegates (target 28). In Arkansas, 11 or 12 (target 17). In Georgia, 32 (target 49). In Texas, 89 (target 108). And so on.
It's not all bad. He only needs 3 delegates from American Samoa.
How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the election).
The targets are taken from the Cook Political Report's model, based on superdelegate endorsement and demographic conditions favorable to each candidate, and represent the number of delegates each candidate must win in each state in order to stay on track to tie for the nomination. The targets are current as of February 12. The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the projections indicate the probability that the candidate will win that state.
If this post is useful to you, please K&R!
[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
They wanted me to do a blind acupuncture study, but I didn't see the point.[/font]
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