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Sat Feb 20, 2016, 10:26 AM

Bernie is within 3 points of Hillary in swing-state Virginia

Our primary is March 1st and we are an open primary state. I know several Republicans in my very red county, who will be crossing over and voting for Bernie. Never thought I'd see such a thing in these parts, but he does appear to be doing well in many rural parts of America.

Virginia has been trending blue since 2008.

http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-in-virginia-by-3-points-49-46/

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Reply Bernie is within 3 points of Hillary in swing-state Virginia (Original post)
Oilwellian Feb 2016 OP
Nyan Feb 2016 #1
Perogie Feb 2016 #2
Ed Suspicious Feb 2016 #37
Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #3
Oilwellian Feb 2016 #10
amborin Feb 2016 #4
Le Taz Hot Feb 2016 #5
firebrand80 Feb 2016 #6
Oilwellian Feb 2016 #11
w4rma Feb 2016 #13
firebrand80 Feb 2016 #14
w4rma Feb 2016 #15
firebrand80 Feb 2016 #18
w4rma Feb 2016 #20
firebrand80 Feb 2016 #21
w4rma Feb 2016 #23
Live and Learn Feb 2016 #30
DCBob Feb 2016 #7
workinclasszero Feb 2016 #8
SheenaR Feb 2016 #35
bigtree Feb 2016 #9
Oilwellian Feb 2016 #12
JRLeft Feb 2016 #16
Divernan Feb 2016 #29
Duval Feb 2016 #33
appalachiablue Feb 2016 #17
Ed Suspicious Feb 2016 #38
TTUBatfan2008 Feb 2016 #19
roguevalley Feb 2016 #26
TTUBatfan2008 Feb 2016 #28
Oilwellian Feb 2016 #36
TTUBatfan2008 Feb 2016 #40
AzDar Feb 2016 #22
kgnu_fan Feb 2016 #24
SoLeftIAmRight Feb 2016 #25
Helen Borg Feb 2016 #27
Name removed Feb 2016 #31
Robbins Feb 2016 #39
peacebird Feb 2016 #32
Duval Feb 2016 #34
Flying Squirrel Feb 2016 #41

Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 10:27 AM

1. Kick Kickety Kick

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 10:33 AM

2. My Father is a moderate Republican

He thinks the Republican candidates are a joke.

He thinks Bernie is right on. He thinks Clinton is a crook and liar.
He is thinking about voting for Bernie.

Successful movements that changed the course of this country were when people of both Parties came together.

We have to stop dividing this country and bring people together, that's the only way we will stop the gridlock in Washington.

Hillary can't do that. Her negatives are too high and moderate Republicans/Independents won't vote for her.

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Response to Perogie (Reply #2)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 01:24 PM

37. I think most regular republicans kind of liked the New Deal. Bernie is a straight up New Dealer.

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 10:34 AM

3. And The Clinton Machine installed a crony as Governor there..

 

She should be way ahead there.


Terrible candidate, just terrible.





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Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #3)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 10:43 AM

10. He just barely won

The blue dogs are losing their grip over our party. It's a new day!

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 10:35 AM

4. K&R

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 10:35 AM

5. Really??????

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 10:36 AM

6. Overtime is not a legitimate pollster

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #6)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 10:47 AM

11. Except they're one of the few that call cell phones as well

So there's that.

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #6)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 11:01 AM

13. Overtime under-represented Sanders in New Hampshire.

 

They over-represented Clinton's strength in New Hampshire.

If they haven't updated their model, Sanders could be very slightly ahead in Virginia.
http://overtimepolitics.com/sanders-leads-clinton-by-14-points-in-new-hampshire-55-41/

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Response to w4rma (Reply #13)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 11:07 AM

14. This isn't about them being "bad"

They just flat-out make stuff up

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #14)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 11:10 AM

15. I'm cool with Camp Weathervane whistling past their graveyard.

 

Just don't take the rest of us down with you.

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Response to w4rma (Reply #15)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 11:42 AM

18. What I think about Hillary's chances in VA is irrelevant

These numbers may even turn out to be correct for all I know.

None of that changes the objective fact that Overtime Politics is a shady organization.

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #18)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 11:54 AM

20. Here is Overtime's polling methodology.

 

Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 3 points in Virginia ­ - 49­ - 46%.

Clinton has seen her poll numbers drop in VA since the last Overtime Politics poll of the state, dropping 5 points, while Sanders has risen 7 points.

Clinton’s support is strong among non­-Caucasians, those aged 46+, and people making over $65,000 a year. Sanders draws his support from Caucasians, those 18 - ­30, and people making between $10,000 - $45,000/year.

The spread between Clinton and Sanders is relatively small, which gives undecided voters the chance to swing the state either way on March 1st.

This poll was conducted by telephone to include 431 likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of 5%. Phone numbers were selected at random through public phone records and cell phone lists.

Likely Democratic primary voters were asked the following questions:

1. Who do you plan on selecting in the 2016 Democratic primary? Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, or are you undecided?

2. Are you male or female?

3. How old are you?

4. What ethnic identity best describes you: White/Caucasian, Black/African­-American, Hispanic/Latino, Asian, Native American/Other?

5. What is your yearly personal income before taxes: Under $10,000, $10,001­- $25,000, $25,001 - ­$45,000. $45,001­ - $65,000, above $65,000?

Our polls are conducted by live interviewers pulling numbers from public phone record searches and cell phone lists. Cell phone users make up about 25% of all respondents.

We do not use previous voter lists or voter registration lists. In order to determine if a person is planning on voting in the primary/caucus, we ask: "Do you plan on voting in the Democratic or Republican primary/caucus on (date)?"

If they say yes, depending on if they answer Democratic or Republican, we ask them the 5 questions found above.
http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comFeb12-Feb14DemocraticPrimaryPoll-Virginia.pdf

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Response to w4rma (Reply #20)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 12:04 PM

21. Here they are getting caught making stuff up:

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #21)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 12:14 PM

23. Or, being a small shop, they made legitimate errors that they caught after publishing.

 

And fixed these errors. If I were them, I would have documented each edit, of course. That said, they are a small shop and they are pretty new at this, and they seem to be working on tight timetables, so there are bound to be growing pains, early on, as they work out the "bugs".

I like to see more competition in the polling business, not less, so I hope that they are responsive to their critics and improve their work as time goes on.

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #6)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 12:52 PM

30. Of course not, we all know that if they don't show Hillary winning they are not legit.

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 10:38 AM

7. Somehow I knew this was Overtime.

Their timing is impeccable.

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 10:39 AM

8. Overtime is a joke

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Response to workinclasszero (Reply #8)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 01:22 PM

35. Overtime

had Bernie by 22 in NH. Nobody else did.

I believe they had the delegate count correct in Iowa too

Some joke.

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 10:40 AM

9. 'Overtime'

...you might want to check that polling outfit a bit more.

I'm not sure this is a legitimate poll.

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Response to bigtree (Reply #9)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 10:48 AM

12. Most polling now is questionable

But I do like a pollster that calls cell phones as well.

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 11:16 AM

16. K&R!

 

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Response to JRLeft (Reply #16)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 12:48 PM

29. Cute kid - walks like he's got a pant load & is trying to shake it loose

Like progressive, real Democrats dealing with Debbie!

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Response to Divernan (Reply #29)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 01:13 PM

33. Like your analogy!

 

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 11:32 AM

17. Glad to hear it. BERNIE SANDERS SUPPORTERS IN US & VIRGINA, FRANCE 24 News, Feb. 7



-MEETING THE CAMPAIGNERS HOPING TO MAKE SANDERS THE NEXT US PRESIDENT-, FRANCE 24, Feb. 7, 2016



- Marta and David, Bernie Sanders Supporters at the Regional Campaign Headquarters in Richmond, Va.-

Bernie Sanders has delivered one of the biggest surprises of the US presidential race by proving to be a genuine contender for the Democratic nomination. FRANCE 24 met with some of the campaigners helping him take on the Clinton political machine.

"Going door to door, talking to your neighbours, your friends – that’s what’s going to get Sanders elected," says Peter Clerkin, Sanders’s 35-year-old campaign manager for Virginia, as he motivates his troops.
The team of local supporters, numbering a little more than 50, are gathered in a municipal hall in the state capital Richmond to inaugurate their new headquarters. Clerkin’s speech is interrupted by a chorus of Sanders’s campaign slogan, “Feel the Bern!” followed by a burst of applause. The atmosphere is electric.

Sanders has been dubbed the new political idol of Democratic “Millennials” – in the Iowa caucuses he won 84 percent of the votes among the 17-29 age group – as well as a certain section of white middle-class voters.
At the Virginia HQ, however, people of all ages and backgrounds have turned out to offer their support.
Many are completely new to the world of political campaigning. When Clerkin asks people to raise their hands if this is their first experience in politics, arms shoot up from at least half the people in the room.



-Peter Clerkin, Sanders Campaign Manager for Virginia -

*‘The American dream hasn’t happened for us’*
What they all share is their enthusiasm for the self-proclaimed democratic socialist, as well as a sense that the current system is not working. Sanders has promised to fix the economy, break up banking giants, end collusion between politicians and the world of finance, provide universal health coverage and make affordable the exorbitant costs of university tuition. More:http://www.france24.com/en/20160207-bernie-sanders-campaigners-us-presidential-race-clinton



- Evandra Catherine, a Member of the Bernie Sanders Campaign in Virginia -



- Dereck Toro Says He Is Confident Sanders Will Win the Democratic Nomination -

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Response to appalachiablue (Reply #17)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 01:27 PM

38. BernieBros.

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 11:45 AM

19. Question...

...are they supporting Bernie across the board for a possible general election or are they just trying to drag out the Democratic primary? Did you ask them their motive?

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Response to TTUBatfan2008 (Reply #19)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 12:32 PM

26. you're joking, right?

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Response to roguevalley (Reply #26)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 12:39 PM

28. It's an honest question...

If he is legitimately appealing to Republicans, then it seems he is the better general election candidate. Not even a moderate Republican will vote for the Clintons.

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Response to TTUBatfan2008 (Reply #19)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 01:22 PM

36. They ALL think he's the only candidate worth voting for in this election

because they like the fact that he can't be bought and he hasn't been corrupted by money.

They said all of the Republican candidates are corrupt and they made a bitter beer face
when I asked what they thought of Hillary, so I guess they won't be supporting her if she makes it to the GE. IMHO, we'll see Virginia go red once again if that happens.

Their motives are pure from what I could tell. They're genuinely concerned about the direction the country is heading and they're tired of the corruption they see in both parties. Trump scares they hell out of them, one even said they would leave the country for safety's sake if he becomes president. They describe Bernie as a breath of fresh air.

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Response to Oilwellian (Reply #36)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 01:58 PM

40. Thanks

Good to hear. People in both parties are tired of the corruption in our system. This is why I think Hillary can't win a general election. The Clintons are damaged goods and viewed as very corrupt by many people in both parties.

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 12:05 PM

22. Go, Bernie GO!!

 

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 12:15 PM

24. I hope so... holding my breath .... nt

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 12:24 PM

25. Damn - never never would have thought this was possible

 

Just fuckin wow

I might let myself get a little optimistic

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 12:38 PM

27. Hillary is so toast!

People just cannot stand her anymore!

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)


Response to Name removed (Reply #31)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 01:29 PM

39. OvertimePolitics

they were one of best pollsters in iowa having bernie ahead by 1 and underestimated bernie in NH having him ahead by 14.try and diss them all you want but they so far are doing better than most.

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 01:11 PM

32. I was out knocking on doors for him in Cville this morning!

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 01:15 PM

34. K&R!

 

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Response to Oilwellian (Original post)

Sat Feb 20, 2016, 03:50 PM

41. Should I update my prediction?

 

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1280120318

Bernie 45, Hillary 50

I do hope he beats all my guesses.

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