2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe lopsided numbers for Hillary in the South mean Bernie is ahead in the rest of the country.
Last edited Tue Mar 1, 2016, 10:21 PM - Edit history (1)
Some people are celebrating Hillary's huge wins in South Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia.
I say, not so fast. In fact, the numbers indicate it's not something to celebrate at all.
If Bernie is only 4 points behind Hillary nationwide*, but Hillary is ahead of Bernie by 50 points in the South, then the math shows that Bernie is actually 4 points *ahead* in the rest of the country outside the South. It's because too much of Hillary's support was concentrated in so few states. Anyway, interesting result going forward...
*Even I you believe Hillary is ahead by 8 nationwide, this still means she and Bernie are tied in the rest of the country.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)SCantiGOP
(13,869 posts)with that reach.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Every few days and especially on March 15th. I don't want to suggest that I think I'm blessed St. Honesty myself, but how on earth do people live their life this way? I want to know the truth so I can understand my world. I even like to think I'm tough enough to handle whatever it is with some degree of dignity.
zappaman
(20,606 posts)#berniemath
yardwork
(61,604 posts)wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)onehandle
(51,122 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)firebrand80
(2,760 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)emulatorloo
(44,121 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Not even a little bit.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)Let them have their fantasy.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)It is just a really horrendous misunderstanding of how polling works.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Polling is based on samples and assumptions. Voting is based on actually, you know, voting. If Clinton outperforms it is indicative that the polling itself didn't capture the true measure of her support. You don't, and can't, take real results and try to fit it to polling; it doesn't work that way. At all.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)SCantiGOP
(13,869 posts)Do not engage in a battle of wits if your opponent is obviously not armed.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)I think I'm going to buy hundred lottery tickets ... it'll increase my chances of winning by 100%!!!!
Universe ... I love me some numbers!
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)You're aggregating results from multiple states and comparing them with national polls as if they were sampling the same population (which is not the same as the general population). Elementary mistake.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)my millennial daughter (the designated internet translator) is back at college ... and she left without setting the clock on my VCR, again!!!!
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)I'm 45*, did I win? did I? Did I? Did I?
* in calendar years. Can't speak for the mental age...
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)you were a twinkling in your parents' eye.
anigbrowl
(13,889 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)LexVegas
(6,060 posts)auntpurl
(4,311 posts)brush
(53,776 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)it can be inferred that the other candidate is winning in the other half.
obamanut2012
(26,071 posts)brush
(53,776 posts)Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(107,960 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)Not everyone went to math class, I suppose.
ozone_man
(4,825 posts)So, it is no surprise there.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)that the map got re-drawn?
obamanut2012
(26,071 posts)and lolz at your sig line!
Number23
(24,544 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)Todays_Illusion
(1,209 posts)Liberty Belle
(9,535 posts)Many of our delegates have remained uncommitted here too (superdelegates) knowing this.
Oregon, Washington, Hawaii are all potential wins for Sanders.