2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forummorningfog
(18,115 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)But I have seen exit polls off by as much as ten percent.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)...there's a big chunk not reporting from within a sea of Bernie counties.
So we will just have to see.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)When the exit polls came out HRC dropped frpm 80 cents to 40 cents. She's now up to 96 cents.
https://www.predictit.org/Market/1725/Who-will-win-the-2016-Massachusetts-Democratic-primary
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)Sorry, I don't gamble.
I don't know MA well enough to guess how this is going to play out.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The Pentagon was going to use gaming markets to predict the next terrorist attacks as it is based on the theory of the wisdom of the crowds. The Pentagon ended up abandoning using gaming markets to predict a terrorist attack because it came off as being ghoulish.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)There is a lot of research that has gone into the wisdom of the crowd theory. BTW, I don't want to be misconstrued as believing they are infallible, but it is a reliable indicator when it comes to predicting all kinds of events...
I don't gamble but I enjoy watching the live political markets.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)ismnotwasm
(41,976 posts)TSIAS
(14,689 posts)I believe the data is used by all the major outlets. MSNBC was also reporting a lead for Sanders in MA.