2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumA Hopefully Sane Look at the AA Margins from a Bernie Supporter
I know some rock stupid, low-information, vote-against-interests WHITE voters in the South. It's a laughably small sample size, but it helps me get a grip on the margins among that cohort. To be clear there is a full information, reasonable case to be made for HRC, I just know some people are incapable of making it, yet still capable of voting.
Black margins for HRC are more of a mystery to me. Low information, celebrity voting can't explain that gap on its own. Not even close. So what do you think explains it?
For it to need explaining, my premise is that Bernie is not THAT much worse than HRC by any measure on platform, positions and statements with regard to issues pertaining to the black community. If you'll go that far with me, after looking all over for some anecdotes and trying to square it with HRC's margins prior to IA in 2008, here's where I'm at on it:
1. Black voters are community voters, and less the sort of 'organic' label-seeking purity-minded "does he/she speak to me," inconsistency-obsessed white liberal voters that I know so well in my home state of MN.
2. There's nothing necessarily wrong with this, and it is many respects a less vain and isolated approach to the ballot.
3. Because of this, there is an inescapably high bar for someone to win this community in the South on the issues when that person loses on the community connection, barring something spectacular on either side.
You can walk down the street in GA and find someone with comparable or superior bona fides on civil rights to Bernie's. That HRC's record is even less compelling doesn't matter because the community knows and accepts her. It's not that Bernie is terrible or even worse necessarily, he just hasn't built that connection, unrelated to specific policies, over decades like HRC has. Absent that spectacular something, the margin will reflect only that community gap and not so much differences in policy/statements/record.
For this to make sense, you have to acknowledge Obama's candidacy, once viable, as a spectacular event, but what do you think? I think it makes a lot more sense than (1) Hillary is a supergenius savior or (2) Bernie is useless in all respects to AA voters.
Response to jpgray (Original post)
Recursion This message was self-deleted by its author.
delrem
(9,688 posts)So they voted for her.
Simple as that.
And I very much support Sanders by the way.
I don't like this, because HRC is a total hawk
and there will be much death if she wins.
jpgray
(27,831 posts)In the sense that about half trusted both, and than it was 18 trust Bernie only to 24 trust Hillary only. So not a 60-80 point margin trust gap!
Again, I think you have to really demonstrate something special to break through as an outsider candidate with the black community, and Bernie, whose record/statements are by no means terrible, just didn't meet that bar.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)But rock on if you must.
jpgray
(27,831 posts)Again, I don't think you can explain a margin so huge by a difference on record, policy or statements. What's your explanation?
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)WOW. You have been missed. it is YOU!
I agree with a lot of what you have said- but his gaffes hurt him. Assuming kids are hanging out on street corners, or every black person puts welfare first. It's not just that black voters didn't know him- he really did not know them, and never figured them out. There is a clumsiness.
I couldn't come up with any good snarky one-liners for either side, so I decided on a wall of text!
Hopefully my point doesn't get lost in the high feelings on both sides, but all I'm trying to get across is that I think Hillary's margin reflects something that took years to build, something that no amount of minor superiority on record or policy can easily wash away absent something amazing. Bernie's great in my view, but he lacks something truly amazing with regard to the AA community and thus just couldn't leap over the bar to be competitive.
And yeah, not saying Bernie was perfect or gaffe free, just pretty good and not significantly worse, and that a fair measure of statements or record only doesn't really explain the truly massive gap here.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Bernie is a bit awkward relating to POC. They face issues that don't always boil down to money (as do women) as much as they do some sort of primal resentment from *some* white dudes. So you know, hearing that the only real problems happen to everyone.... well, it is odd. I think Hillary gets there are people and places where issues are unique, and she talks about that. Also, as you have pointed out, she has a great relationship and honestly, hearing Sander people wanting her indicted is not going to play to well. Lots of awkwardness there.
Anyway- awesome to see you. Cannot wait to tell Progmom and Swag there has been a JPGray sighting. We were worried about you!
jpgray
(27,831 posts)I'm not saying Bernie is any kind of dream candidate, and that's his problem. Good enough but almost completely unknown seems to not cut it at all when it comes to the AA vote in the South.
I AM saying that he's not some nightmare horrible candidate that deserved a 70+% trouncing on record/policy, and that there's probably more to it than record/policy. There's a lot more to politics than record/policy, so that's not an unreasonable outcome given the time and effort from HRC to build such trust and mutual respect.
It's nice to see some familiar faces!
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)because THEY know him and trust him. I had to give him the side eye for calling Planned Parenthood "establishment" at a time like this. He didn't need to do that just because he didn't get an endorsement. He didn't need to tell firemen to "set aside differences" about abortion. That kinda sucked. It was also remarkable the gaffes he made on Ferguson- not knowing Mike Brown was on his way to college, not knowing people ended up in jail because they could not pay fines. It kind of stunned me how little empathy or interest he showed in those cases. When my friends who were big fans said he doesn't do "identity politics" or wedge issues, it didn't help any. I still like him, but that can feel like a lot to get past, honestly.
I told Swag you're here, now he is going to track us down and say hello! LOL. He cannot help himself.
jpgray
(27,831 posts)bettyellen
(47,209 posts)cat sat for me while I was away, and we try to do an overlap night/ hangout. I love those guys.
jpgray
(27,831 posts)Including the OP - I can't imagine a more persuasive spokeswoman for some "Consider Hairless" feline outreach campaign, for example.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)floats up and attaches itself immediately to the edge of my ceiling fan. Better there than on my clothes.
How'd you know that? HA.
PeaceNikki
(27,985 posts)You should log into FB some time and check up on everyone. We lost Dookus, HEyHEY came back from China with a wife and has a new baby, swag is a male stripper in Vegas... among other things.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Aitch wears the top hat and brandishes a whip.
moondust
(19,979 posts)in southern states AAs will always vote overwhelmingly for anybody other than a white man or a Republican if they have a choice.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)rbrnmw
(7,160 posts)Chitown Kev
(2,197 posts)even in this thread.
You can walk down the street in GA and find someone with comparable or superior bona fides on civil rights than Bernie.
That's true.
That would also be true in Chicago as well.
jpgray
(27,831 posts)People saying for example that black voters aren't down with revolution or rocking the boat, that their vote represents a weird fatalistic pageant and they can be treated as establishment drones, need to remember what happened in 84, 88, and, well, freaking 08!
I think you can say that if it your revolution isn't plausible, or doesn't capture their imagination, or both, the votes just won't appear for you. Nothing unreasonable about that.
MisterP
(23,730 posts)bloc voting was way lower down as a factor
perhaps Rahm's victory last year might provide more examples for the interested