2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNY Times: Sanders Campaign Will Travel On, but Path to Victory Is All but Blocked
Bernie Sanders has vowed to fight for the presidential nomination until the Democratic convention, but the results this evening suggest that he is not anywhere close to being on track to amass a majority of pledged delegates.
Hillary Clintons landslide margins in the South and her competitiveness elsewhere translate to an overall lead of around 15 to 20 percentage points nationwide. Her support is anchored by a huge advantage among black voters, who represent nearly a quarter of Democratic voters and have offered her more than 80 percent of their votes a tally rivaling or even exceeding the share won by Barack Obama in 2008.
Mr. Sanders, despite pockets of strength, has not fared well enough to overcome such a huge deficit among black voters.
Not even a few feel-good wins in states like Colorado, Minnesota and Oklahoma will change that. Mr. Sanders would have needed big wins in these states by much more than 20 percentage points to entertain the possibility of overcoming his enormous deficit in the South, where the majority of Democrats are African-American.
Mrs. Clinton is on track to win nearly 80 percent of the vote in Alabama, more than 70 percent in Georgia, and more than 60 percent in Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas and Texas. Mr. Sanders cannot make up for routs in the South with slight wins in the North. He needs landslides to counter landslides; he doesnt have them.
There are three times as many nonblack voters as black voters in the Democratic primary electorate. To cancel her strength, Mr. Sanders would need to win nonblack voters by about 20 percentage points, since Mrs. Clinton leads by more than 60 points among black voters.
Through the contests so far, Mr. Sanders has not posted dominating totals outside of his home state of Vermont and a few adjacent counties in western New Hampshire.
Elsewhere, Mr. Sanders fell far short of the targets needed. He lost Hispanic voters in Texas by 20 percentage points. He lost white voters in Virginia, Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee. He came very close but lost mostly white Iowa.
But perhaps most striking is that Mr. Sanders failed to win in Massachusetts a notably liberal state next to Vermont with a relatively small black share of the vote. Massachusetts residents had the chance to see many of the ads aired by the Sanders campaign for New Hampshire, which is covered by the Boston media market. If Mr. Sanders cant win big in a place like Massachusetts, it is hard to come up with many places where he can.
Mr. Sanders also hoped to fare well in Appalachia, where theres a large number of working-class Democrats and few black voters. But the results in western Virginia, Tennessee, northern Georgia and Alabama all suggest that Mr. Sanders trails there as well. Perhaps he could still win in Kentucky or West Virginia, but its hard to imagine him winning in a landslide if he trails in the bordering regions of northern Tennessee and western Virginia.
Mrs. Clinton decisively won the handful of coal country counties in western Virginia that act as a leading indicator of the results in West Virginia and eastern Kentucky.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/02/upshot/sanders-campaign-will-travel-on-but-path-to-victory-is-all-but-blocked.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-abc-region®ion=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region&_r=0
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Who knows? (I guess it doesn't really matter ... it's just background noise to me.)
Go, Hillary! We love you!
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)Their audience pays them to tell them what they want hear. Similar to how FOX News feeds their audience info that makes the rest of us scratch our heads.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)After each Hillary win, they convince themselves the victories were actually losses.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)There was a time in Japan when cancer was such a verboten topic doctors wouldn't tell patients they had it. There is a lesson in there.
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Bernie's mathematical path to the nomination hangs by a thread. But, realistically speaking, he hasn't got a chance.
Indeed.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)...to pad her lead. There's 33 others where Sanders does well. Clinton can't score a solid victory except in southern states that will vote red in November anyway.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)HRC is + 29 in Florida:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html
HRC is +21 in New York:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html
HRC is + 19 in Pennsylvania:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary-4249.html
HRCis + 21 in Ohio:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html
HRC is + 19 in Illinois:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html
HRC is + 19 in North Carolina:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-5175.html
HRC is +14 in California:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html
HRC is +19 In Michigan:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html
Senator Sanders is losing the states he is losing now . not because a quirk of the primary calendar, but because they are heterogeneous. The more heterogeneous the state the worse Senator Sanders does. That's an empirical observation and not a normative one.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)or something....
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)....but then they don't want us to ignore Oklahoma.
It's all very confusing at this point.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)riversedge
(70,205 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)HRC is +34 in Arizona.
Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #3)
Cali_Democrat This message was self-deleted by its author.
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)lie and try to tear down your opponent no mater how decent. The BernieBro is a creation of the syphilitic minds that run the Clintoon campaign.
angrychair
(8,698 posts)wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)I see you're in favor spending tax payer money on such nonsense.
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)It totally fucks the silly ass talking point up.
angrychair
(8,698 posts)All fixed
MissDeeds
(7,499 posts)tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)ain't real hard to count to 50
i got together with 2 other dudes and 2 of us took off our shoes and socks
PeaceNikki
(27,985 posts)AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service
On Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:13 PM an alert was sent on the following post:
But BernieBroMath says that it is still possible.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1393159
REASON FOR ALERT
This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.
ALERTER'S COMMENTS
Broad-brush, divisive attack. This is the kind of thing that is going to make it very difficult to bring the sides here together for the general election.
You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:17 PM, and the Jury voted 2-5 to LEAVE IT.
Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Newp
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Weak sauce in the relative cosmology of DU.
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Discuss, don't alert.
Juror #4 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Poster should stop rolling on the floor laughing long enough to realize the primaries aren't over, and millions of people still haven't voted. BTW, knock off the BernieBro crap. What an ass.
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Seen a lot worse on GDP than this.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: But not against the TOS. Is it nice? No, but this thread is full of attacks on each side against the candidate of the other side. Do what I do. Use your Ignore list to its fullest.
Juror #7 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
ScreamingMeemie
(68,918 posts)Juror #6 here.
PeaceNikki
(27,985 posts)I was (am?) #1!!!
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)Csainvestor
(388 posts)Bernie will also win by and California. Washington and Oregon are Bernie country as well.
FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)well then it must be factual...
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Stick a fork in him. He's done.
Sid
Csainvestor
(388 posts)Do you have any idea how popular bernie is in Brooklyn?
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Bernie wins by 10 points? 15?
What's your prediction for New York?
Sid
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
riversedge
(70,205 posts)riversedge
(70,205 posts)Donna Brazile Retweeted
The New York Times ?@nytimes 3h3 hours ago
Key takeaways from Super Tuesday http://nyti.ms/1oYg9qJ
DCBob
(24,689 posts)"He needs landslides to counter landslides; he doesnt have them."
Red Knight
(704 posts)I know I don't.
It's not changing one bit how I'm voting in the Pennsylvania primary.
Even if it's over by then, I'll still vote for him.
What the Clinton supporters fail to realize is that Bernie means more than just a primary or an election. They can't ever get that, I know.
But all the polls and all the NYT cheerleading for Clinton mean nothing to Bernie's hardcore supporters. So keep posting and feel good about that.
It isn't going to discourage me.
I just don't care.
BainsBane
(53,032 posts)kick