According to FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver, Hillary is almost guaranteed of winning the next 5

[4lbs]

Democratic primaries.


Past those Sanders has a decent to good chance to win Utah and Wisconsin.


Then, after those, Clinton has sizable leads in Pennsylvania, Maryland, New York, New Jersey, and California, leading each by 15 points or more.




March 8
---------------
Michigan http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

Hillary has a 98% chance of winning, projecting 60 to 36.


March 15
----------------
1.) Florida http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-democratic/

Hillary has a 99% chance of winning, projecting 67 to 30.


2.) Illinois http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/illinois-democratic/

Hillary has a 99% chance of winning, projecting 65 to 30.


3.) Ohio http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/ohio-democratic/

Hillary has a 94% chance of winning, projecting 60 to 38.


4.) North Carolina http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/north-carolina-democratic/

Hillary has a 96% chance of winning, projecting 60 to 37.

[morningfog]

1. You skipped four contests: KS, LA, NE and ME, all this weekend. 538 didn't give a projection, but

they will take place.

And Mississippi and Missouri are also on the 15th.

[Godhumor]

2. In commentary Nate Silver expects KS, NE and ME to Bernie, LA to Clinton

But he is expects that, thanks to the size of Louisiana and Hillary's expected margin, she will actually gain delegates vs Bernie for the weekend.

[4lbs]

5. Yeah, I just went with what was available from their site. It appears those states don't have as

up-to-date polling information as the ones I presented, so that could be why FiveThirtyEight didn't predict an outcome on those.

Yes, I do think think Bernie will win 3 of those states, namely Maine, Kansas, and Nebraska.

Kansas and Nebraska demographics are similar to Oklahoma, so Bernie has the significant edge there.

Maine will be like Vermont and New Hampshire. I also expect Bernie to win Connecticut, and maybe even Rhode Island.


Louisiana is more diverse, and should be like Texas in voting. So Hillary is favored.

[MADem]

6. ME will probably go to Sanders--they're a lot like VT and NH on the whole gun issue.

I wouldn't be surprised if he picks up KS and NE too.

He'd probably be happier if more people lived in those states, as they aren't terribly "delegate rich."

[JaneyVee]

18. Heres a projection:

[alcibiades_mystery]

26. Mississippi is on March 8, this coming Tuesday

Sanders will get clobbered in Mississippi.

He might win Missouri on March 15 in a close contest, but it will depend how much vote Clinton gets out of St. Louis. It's a complete toss-up for me: 50-50 in Missouri, and a likely delegate wash.

[NurseJackie]

3. No pathway for Bernie. Bernie will not be the nominee.

[Hortensis]

4. Plus, as the GOP race tightens up, Democrats are going

to turn their attention to winning the GE, and that will of course benefit Hillary as our very strong frontrunner.

[jcgoldie]

7. Nate Silver

And his voodoo math... obviously in the tank for hillary$$$

[NastyRiffraff]

8. Voodoo math?

Is that what he used to correctly predict 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election. (He missed only Indiana; Obama won it by 0.1%)

Or what he used to predict all 50 states in 2012? Of course he uses, you know, statistics. But by all means, call it voodoo if you want.

[Attorney in Texas]

11. Have you checked his accuracy in 2016? NOT GOOD AT ALL.

[NastyRiffraff]

12. Are we talking about the same Nate Silver?

of fivethirtyeight.com? He's pretty much batting 1000 so far.

Sorry, you can't argue with numbers. You'll always lose.

[Attorney in Texas]

13. I'm talking about the one who said Trump and Cruz had no chance at being nominated, and who missed

on his predictions of several election contests so far this cycle.

[Goblinmonger]

16. Trump was a pretty big swing a miss for Nate.

Batting 1.000 is a pretty big claim that, as you indicate is the tell all, the numbers do not support.

[jcgoldie]

21. hmm

sorry... "voodoo math" was sarcasm and stuff...

[NastyRiffraff]

22. Got it

Sorry. It's hard to tell these days what is sarcasm!

[MoonRiver]

23. Those smilie things are important on the internet, where we have

no facial expressions, voice tone, or body language to help us interpret.

[NurseJackie]

9. Ummm....

[demwing]

29. Silver's "voodoo math" made 4 states disappear

That's bad juju!

[Attorney in Texas]

10. If I were a Hillarian, I'd also pretend there weren't contests on March 5 and 6 (which look pretty

much like a 3 out of 4 run for Sanders).

You may want to re-title your OP because the "next 5" are not the races you are talking about in your post.

[Divernan]

14. You actually got alerted on for the term "Hillarian"

Time to invest in pearl necklaces and fainting couch futures.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Wed Mar 2, 2016, 06:29 PM, and the Jury voted 3-4 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Sick of insults.
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Pretty weak sauce, alerter, to get all kerfluffled over the term "Hillarian".
Juror #4 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: waste of alert
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Please.
Juror #7 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: This nastiness amongst fellow Democrats ....unacceptable. You all know the rules.

[George II]

15. I think they're looking forward to the upcoming March 5 and 6 primaries/caucuses:

Among Louisiana (54), Nebraska (26), Kansas (33), and Maine (25), Clinton is ahead in all but Maine.

[fun n serious]

17. If you can call me a Hillarian, can I call you a Bernie Bot? nt

[Attorney in Texas]

19. What's wrong with Hillarian? Do you prefer Clintonista? If it makes you feel better to call me a

Bernie Bot, go ahead, but you know I'm not a 'bot, right?

[fun n serious]

20. It depends on what your definition of bot is. ;) nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

24. Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine to Sanders; Louisiana to Clinton

Weekend's net delegate change will be in the area of +16 Sanders.

That will be wiped out by Mississippi.

Clinton will then get +23-26 delegates out of Michigan.

Let's say Saturday through Tuesday net delegates +25 Clinton.

[brooklynite]

25. Well, yes, but those Michigan votes will come out of SOUTHERN Michigan....

We all know southern votes don't count.

[alcibiades_mystery]

27. The March 8 and March 15 contests will end the "Southern Excuse," but some other will emerge

in its place.

Sanders never has and never will legitimately lose an election.

[BeyondGeography]

28. Looks like heavy jury duty here on March 16