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Sun Mar 6, 2016, 06:07 PM

Looking at the primary predictions from 538, it's safe to say Trump and Cruz are finished! Links:

Whenever someone cites 538 as a reason to think the Sanders campaign is doomed, that's a good time to review the collected genius and wisdom of 538:

Letís Be Serious About Ted Cruz From The Start: Heís Too Extreme And Too Disliked To Win

Ted Cruz Has A Huge Math Problem

The Glass-Half-Empty Case Against Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz Is Just Like Reagan In 1980, Except People Actually Liked Reagan

Ted Cruzís General Election Strategy Is Wishful Thinking

Donald Trumpís Six Stages Of Doom

Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ĎSurgeí Seriously

Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates

Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?

Donald Trump Wonít Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention

Donald Trump Wonít Win A War Against Fox News

Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Canít Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner!

Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trumpís Polls

Why Donald Trump Isnít A Real Candidate

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Reply Looking at the primary predictions from 538, it's safe to say Trump and Cruz are finished! Links: (Original post)
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 OP
Dawgs Mar 2016 #1
nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #2
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #4
AzDar Mar 2016 #3
Go Vols Mar 2016 #5
Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #6
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #7
stillwaiting Mar 2016 #8
Matariki Mar 2016 #9
Warren DeMontague Mar 2016 #10
PDittie Mar 2016 #11

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Mar 6, 2016, 06:12 PM

1. Been saying that for years. n/t

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Mar 6, 2016, 06:15 PM

2. Right now the two candidates for the democratic side

 

are separated by the same exact percentage they were on Super Tuesday

Jn fact, when you do not round it, it is 0.5 percent less than it was in Super Tuesday, That be 8.5 percent. IF Bernie does well tonight, as expected, that might go down all the way to 8 percent.

Oh wait, I was supposed to count Supers as well Sorry, teacher, the conure tore up the memo.

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Response to nadinbrzezinski (Reply #2)

Sun Mar 6, 2016, 06:36 PM

4. Agreed

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Mar 6, 2016, 06:17 PM

3. K & R

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Mar 6, 2016, 06:40 PM

5. yep

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Mar 6, 2016, 06:42 PM

6. Those aren't prediction models

 

They're op eds.

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #6)

Sun Mar 6, 2016, 06:51 PM

7. Did 538 predict Cruz to win Iowa or Oklahoma or Kansas? Did 538 predict Hillary would lose Colorado

Oklahoma or Minnesota or Nebraska or Kansas or Maine?

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Mar 6, 2016, 06:53 PM

8. They try to manufacture consent.

They (and other Establishment Media) seem to have been more successful with Democrats than Republicans this Primary.

Shame really.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Mar 6, 2016, 06:55 PM

9. Yup.

Didn't they say that Sanders would only win Vermont? Or something like that? Or do they keep changing their 'predictions' as they get them wrong?

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Mar 6, 2016, 06:57 PM

10. Ted Cruz is simply too squicky. His misshapen head looks like a CD that has been left in a hot car.

It will most likely be Trump.

One mistake we shouldnt make is underestimating Trump, though.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Mar 6, 2016, 07:25 PM

11. I'm old enough to remember when

Nate Silver was poblano on Daily Kos. My confidence never wavered throughout 2008 and 2012 as a result of his numbers.

But since he's decided he'd rather do sports statistics, hired a climate skeptic on for "balance", and turned the political polling over to others, his reputation has gone downhill faster than shit through a goose.

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