Clinton Opens Up Huge Lead in Michigan Clinton 66% (+11) Sanders 29% (-8)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

EAST LANSING, Michigan --- In a poll conducted Sunday afternoon and evening before the start
of their CNN debate in Flint, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has opened up a huge lead
over Vermont U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders among Democratic Party Presidential Primary voters
in Michigan. Clinton leads Sanders 66%-29%, up from 55%-37% on Thursday night. Only 6% of
the voters remain undecided.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mitchell-FOX_2_Detroit_MI_Poll_DEM_Primary_3-6-16.pdf

[CoffeeCat]

1. An automated robopoll? Those are always way off

Clinton and Sanders have remarked that the race has tightened significantly in Michigan.

I think Clinton and Sanders would both agree that this poll is a bit goofy.

A robo poll?

Who in the hell doesn't hang up on a robo poll? That has to be one nutty demographic!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Res ipsa loquitur

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-michigan-presidential-democratic-primary


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

[CoffeeCat]

3. The CBS poll--which is the last, reliable poll taken

shows the race within 11 points.

That poll is in line with what the Clinton/Sanders campaigns are both saying about the race tightening and being close.

The RCP average included the crazy outlier robopoll. LOL!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. The CBS/YOU GOV poll is not REMOTELY reliable.

They missed South Carolina by twenty nine points!!!

I bet you think I made that up.

Well I didn't:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html#polls


Twenty nine points!!!


As someone who has actually worked with survey data I don't know why CBS attaches their good name to such flawed research.

BTW, I don't hold the CBSYOUGOV national polls in the same low esteem as their state polls because the methodology of the former is more rigid.

[CoffeeCat]

7. You've cited the RCP averages

as evidence that Clinton is creaming Bernie. Yet, you are now telling me that the CBS poll--which is included in the RCP average--is unreliable.

Polls...are crazy. And that robopoll is laughable. And it's included in the RCP average. Do they allow any poll into their average?

It's nutty!

I think I'll just rely on what both camps are saying--that the race has tightened significantly. Nothing more reliable than internal polling, right?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. The Law Of Large Numbers suggests the more polls you include the better,

The Law Of Large Numbers suggests the more polls you include the better, because presumably the "good" ones will cancel out the "bad" ones, and we will get a truer picture of what is really occurring.

I think I'll just rely on what both camps are saying--that the race has tightened significantly. Nothing more reliable than internal polling, right?

Cui bono... All campaigns spin, even the ones of the candidates I like. I consequently ignore most of what they say




P.S I will concede your point that robo calls are not the most robust pollsters but it is a data point, nothing more and nothing less, and some robo callers do a fairly decent job. If you are really concerned about methodology please check the yougov Battleground poll methodology. It's crazy!!!

[CoffeeCat]

10. I noticed that CBS was very close on races

in the beginning of the primary. I didn't know that they missed the mark that bad on SC.

If I really want to know what is going on in a state, I look at RCP and read the methodology of the 2-3 most recent polls.

Wouldn't you agree that the latest poll with the soundest methodology is going to give you the best indication (or even prediction) of the final outcome? States that have impending primaries are moving targets. The numbers are changing so quickly.

A 5-day old poll can be stale and outdated--as voters firm up their choices and fall into their candidate camps at a furious pace--as they prepare to vote/caucus.

It's too bad that we can't have a "gold standard" poll doing frequent and consistent polling throughout the campaign.

Too bad Ann Selzer doesn't do more polling. I'm kind of tired of sifting through the junk.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Marist and MRG have the soundest methodologies.

Marist and MRG have the soundest methodologies. They both call landline and cell phone users. Nate Silver gives the former an A-.

Here is the CBS/YOU GOV Battleground Poll methodology. Their methodology should give anybody pause:

The CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia. The poll was conducted by YouGov, an online polling organization.


...

Respondents were selected from YouGovs and two other online panels. These are “opt-in” panels which are open for anyone to join. However, YouGov also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 22,517 registered voters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1,753 phone recruits.

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/09/13/methodology-2016-cbs-news-battleground-tracker/

I don't have a problem with online polls if they are properly weighted and designed to approximate a random sample. My problem with the YOUGOV Battle Tracker Poll is it combines an online poll with a traditional phone poll, and interviews the same people more than once to compound the problem. They are introducing more complexity than what is necessary and allowing error to seep in.

[leftynyc]

8. Reliable poll?

That's a matter of opinion (they blew SC HUGE). And certainly not the latest poll (CBS was 3/2-3/4):

Fox Poll from 3/6 has Hillary up +37
ARG from 3/4-3/5 has Hillary up +24

[MoonRiver]

5. After that debate, I think her numbers will skyrocket!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Somebody's performance was evocative of that other candidate who tells everybody to be quiet.

[livetohike]

13. I agree. I think it moved some undecided voters her way. n/t

[NurseJackie]

11. Bernie's campaign is IMPLODING! Hillary UP-11 ... Bernie DOWN-8 ... WOW!!

I mean, I'm thrilled for Hillary and everything, but this is TOTALLY DEVASTATING news for Bernie's campaign. I don't believe he can recover after last night's debate.


Go, Hillary! We love you!

[Attorney in Texas]

14. IMPLODING - Yes, that's the word I was looking for.

[Bluenorthwest]

18. The Emoticon Pundity of DU has been shown to be prone to over exuberance.

nt

[Lizzie Poppet]

15. DU rec +1

[Bluenorthwest]

16. Rec'd for to highlight the profound prophetic accuracy of the OP! This is the sort of work

that really builds a reputation!

Hubris. It's what's for dinner!

[cherokeeprogressive]

17. Rec'd because I always rec good comedy.

[kgnu_fan]

21. Hilarious !!!!

[antigop]

19. HA, HA! nt

[MaeScott]

20. LOL! nt