2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSanders had a net negative 20 delegate day yesterday
+8 in Michigan
-28 in Mississippi
And not winning both states by 60-40 puts him further behind. He can win every state next Tuesday by the same margin as Michigan and be effectively no closer to catching up.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)He has done that and more. He has kept it close enough where making up ground when the map turns to his better states should be 'easier'. Also, never under estimate momentum.
Renew Deal
(81,861 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)and several have huge delegate counts
once the south is behind us, you will see the numbers really change
merrily
(45,251 posts)It hasn't voted for a Democratic President since the Governor of Georgia ran.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)Winner take all? No super delegates?
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)All you have to do is look at the GOO race to understand their potential importance.
For the rest of the rule changes I would implement, please see below.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)than other districts.
For example let's assume these 2 districts (A,B) are exactly the same in terms of population with 1 exception.
Congressional District A: This district is historically democratic. For this reason if a candidate wins here it's worth more.
Congressional District B: This district is less reliably democratic. It often votes republican. If a candidate wins here even if it's by a larger popular vote margin, they recieve less delegates.
This explains a lot of Clinton's lead. Clinton wins (usually blowouts) in reliably democratic districts. Therefore her congressional wins are worth more. This is why in small rural southern states she dominates the delegate count. On the flip side, if you have a candidate that can expand the electorate or win in republican areas, even if you are winning by large margins, you can't keep pace because these congressional wins are worth less.
Clinton dominated the delegate count last night. Her lead EXPANDED. I am a Clinton supporter. I understand that these delegate allocation rules were designed to reward congressional districts that were democratic. But what these rules mean, is that candidates with base support are disproportionately rewarded compared to candidates that could expand the party by winning in other areas.
No one objectively could conclude that last night Clinton had a better night than Sanders. But by the delegate scoreboard, which is all that matters, she did.
RazBerryBeret
(3,075 posts)pretty awesome for someone who was deemed "un-electable"!
Renew Deal
(81,861 posts)It's always one of the most important states on the calendar
RazBerryBeret
(3,075 posts)Cannot wait for next Tuesday to see Ohio feel the Bern as well!!!
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)It's clear the polls are clueless.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)Everybody knows Feb and Mar are Clinton's best months. Bernie's best months are April, May and June.
He won Maine by 10X Michigan
He won Kansas by 10X Michigan
He won Nebraska by 5X Michigan
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Ultimately we're all but a tiny handful, and minus the right wing infiltrators, on the same side.
Zen Democrat
(5,901 posts)Bernie has wins in New Hampshire, Vermont, Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, Maine, and probably Iowa - all blue or purple states. Hillary is winning because the DNC stacked the deck for her, while she's still struggling to connect with white, working class voters.
Renew Deal
(81,861 posts)johnnyrocket
(1,773 posts)UtahLib
(3,179 posts)mainstreetonce
(4,178 posts)Glad someone is keeping track.