2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIn the simplest terms: Bernie needs 54% of the remaining 2,739 pledged delegates, Hillary 46%.
Hillary has 769 pledged delegates.
Bernie has 552.
A majority of the total pledged delegates is 2,026. There are 2,739 pledged delegates remaining.
Hillary needs 1,257 to get to 2,026.
Bernie needs 1,474 to get to 2,026.
Said another way, Hillary needs 46% of the remaining pledged delegates while Bernie needs 54%.
There are 35 contests left to bag the delegates needed. Bernie has some advantage in 26 of those contests be it by geography, a caucus, or a open primary.
For perspective, if Hillary won EVERY delegate in EVERY contest starting now, she wouldn't reach 2,026 until April 19.
democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)I guess the post earlier that made it look insurmountable included superdelegates, which I don't think makes sense because they can switch. In 2008, I was reasonably confident that if Obama won the pledged delegates, the superdelegates would not overturn the will of the primary voters. This year I am not so sure that will be the case, but the last time the party elders overrode the will of Democratic primary voters, it didn't work out so well for them.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)I was confident they would not do it to Obama, both because he was the first black nominee of the party and because he had enough insiders who either supported him or at least found him acceptable. The party insiders have been so eager to marginalize Bernie that I wouldn't put it past them to be usurpers.
Response to democrattotheend (Reply #1)
jwirr This message was self-deleted by its author.
LongTomH
(8,636 posts)If the caucus / primary in your state is over, sign up to make phone calls to states that have yet to vote.
edgineered
(2,101 posts)Rec for putting it in terms that are easy to understand.
Impedimentus
(898 posts)you certainly won't find it on CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, FAUX, ... etc, etc.
salinsky
(1,065 posts)... I just don't see how Bernie can get there.
I do think that he's on track to win something just shy of 40% of delegates, and that's nothing to sneeze at.
That will give him tremendous leverage with the platform and rule writing committees at the convention.
My hat's off to him.
He's run one hell of a campaign.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)Peeps said the same thing about Sanders even get out of the gate.
Apparently, something already has been going catastrophically wrong with the Clinton campaign.
... I think Hillary's campaign is fine.
Bernie has just been much, much stronger than anyone anticipated.
I'm talking about a major health scare or an indictment (which is not going to happen IMHO), when I say something will have to go catastrophically wrong.
But, I've been wrong about just about every other thing in this primary season, so ...
Wilms
(26,795 posts)Keep your seat belt on. LOL!
Codeine
(25,586 posts)so much as his has proven much stronger than anticipated. Strong enough to win? Remains to be seen. Strong enough that he needs to be respected? Damn right.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)To those who think it is, anyways.
Bernie needed to be respected from Day 1. DNC had no reason to back a candidate until the General.
Would love to see DWS join HRC in the private sector.
Jon Ace
(243 posts)and by much wider margins.
Doable, but difficult.
Cavallo
(348 posts)by between 11 and 25 percentage points.
It was said to be historical in how off the outcome was from the predictions.
6chars
(3,967 posts)... the math is daunting for Bernie.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)...points in Michigan last night.
So when you say "the math is tough" I'd be grateful if you'd share it so we can all look at it.
The reason being is that "math" is actually just the arithmetic and I'll trust that most analysis do the arithmetic properly. What they haven't been doing is making proper assumptions about what numbers to consider and how those numbers are juggled BEFORE the final calculations are made.
Clear so far?
By way of example let's try a simple mental exercise.
We have had contests in 21 of 50 states with 29 remaining contests ahead.
So that means that Hillary racked up the "insurmountable" lead in only 21 of the states, right.
There are 29 states still to vote, right?
So just on the face of it, if it was possible for Hillary (by whatever edge she had) to accumulate the lead she now has, what is so stupid about saying that there is MORE opportunity for Bernie to erase that lead via the 29 remaining states?
To deny that obvious "math" requires a whole raft of assumptions to either be accepted OR rejected since many or the assumptions are mutually exclusive.
Do you understand now that you are not talking about MATH, you are talking about extremely subjective ANALYSIS.
jillan
(39,451 posts)it comes to Bernie.