The Myth of Obama's Swing State "firewall" and why it is actually much bigger than that
We keep hearing about Obama's Swing State firewall, and how Romney needs to crumple it to win. But this actually grossly understates Obama's advantage. First, which states are not swing states but are somehow being counted as ones:
1) Pennsylvania
2) Michigan
3) Wisconsin
Yes, these races might be closer than we expect, but simply looking at the RCP polls for the 3 states:
Pennsylvania: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html#polls
Michigan: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html#polls
Wisconsin: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html#polls
Romney hasn't lead a poll in any of those states since August, despite the multitude of different polls with different models, and with several being right leaning. If he wins those states, then Obama is getting dominated in a landslide and there is no point in even analyzing the election. It won't be an election, but a coronation for Romney. I don't see any way that happens.
But let's look deeper, and what that does to the map:
Romney is in really, really big trouble. Out of 85 remaining electoral votes, he needs a 63 (he will win with 269). That means he needs 74% of electoral votes from swing states. But it's even worse than that. You read things like this:
Romney is now in dead heats or better with the president in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.
That is the sound of Romney losing. Dead heat does no good. He can't afford to only win half of those. I read this morning (can't remember where) that "whoever wins 2 out of 3 of Ohio, Florida and Virginia" is likely to win the election. To quote the VP, what a bunch of malarkey. Romney has to win all 3, and then some.
This is what happens if Romney wins 2 out of 3:
Obama wins Ohio
Obama wins Virginia
Obama wins Florida
Florida wins it, Ohio gets Obama within 5 votes, and VA gets him within 10 votes. And these are scenarios where things go wrong and he loses 2 out of 3 biggest toss up states. Romney would still be behind, and still have to make up a lot of ground. But let's say it goes really, really bad, and Romney wins all 3:
Obviously, at this point. Romney is ahead. But look beyond that:
1) We gave Romney all 3 of the largest swing states, including Ohio, where he is pretty clearly 4-5 points behind right now.
2) He still didn't win!
Florida, Virginia and Ohio actually aren't enough.
In fact, if Obama doesn't lose a state that Kerry or Gore won, then the map becomes this:
And the entire election comes down to Nevada and Colorado, 2 states where Obama has an excellent ground game, and where Obama could very easily win like this:
That's why I take issue with the term "swing state firewall." It's actually a blue state firewall, in that states that are in the bag for Obama far outnumber those that are in the bag for Romney in terms of electoral vote. Romney doesn't need to just do well in swing states, he needs a blow out. Yes, Obama is doing slightly better overall in swing states, but even a "tie" will allow Obama to win easily. Romney needs to sweep the Big 3 and then do more work. This is all assuming he wins North Carolina, of course. The map greatly, greatly favors Obama, he basically just needs to hit a SAC Fly, Romney needs a grand slam. So, when the narrative turns to, "whoever wins this state wins the presidency" or "2 out of 3 of these states" or "Romney and Obama are in a dead heat in swing states", those are all actually favorable to Obama because of his BLUE STATE firewall that has put him way out in front before the swing states come into play.
Just some food for thought and why OFA is still quietly confident. The map is tilted not slightly, but very heavily in their favor.
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