Gallup 10/16/2012 Likely Voters Romney 50 (+1) Obama 46 (-1)

[dennis4868]

Among Registered voters its tied at 47%

Obama approval/disapproval 49%(+1)/45%(-2)

I wish I had better news. This has got to turn around soon!

[Maximumnegro]

1. Obama at 49% approval

So whatever.

OH+NV = Game over for Romney

[mgcgulfcoast]

8. IF ROMNEY is ahead 4 nationally he wins ohio

i have no idea what is going on.

[dennis4868]

13. It's rather obvious...

Romney fooled alot of people, especially women during the 1st debate that he is a moderate and nothing like he has been portrayed by the Obama campaign. They believe he's a deficit hawk, loves the middle class and is the defender of women's rights...THAT'S NOT THE TRUTH but to avg person watching the debate they don't know that. Obama let him get away with all of Romney bullshit and I don't know if things can be reversed.

[mgcgulfcoast]

24. if obama loses

oct 03 will be a day of infamy.

[Maximumnegro]

26. You hit 420 posts. So for the Love of God

take a hit. You need one.

[skeewee08]

32. not true mgcgulfcoast

Don't panic that's what the M$M wan'ts: President O has a 5 point lead in Ohio & he leads in NV & Wisconsin; Romney will have to win every swing staste except Ohio to win & that's not going to happen...

[mgcgulfcoast]

47. right now i would expect obama to win ohio

but if romney wins by 4 nationally thats an 11 point swing from 08.

Obama won ohio by 5 in 08. he will lose it in 2012 if there is a national 11 point swing.

[mzmolly]

61. This is a seven day rolling average, and other polls show Obama

making gains of late.

[jenmito]

2. It makes no sense that his approval/disapproval would improve 3 points but he'd lose ground to

Romney.

[dennis4868]

4. I don't know...

is it possible that people approve of Obama's job but think Romney can do better? Myself says HELL NO but there are a lot of stupid people out there.

[Maximumnegro]

14. Obama campaign has already slammed Gallup's

likely voter model. If the O campaign finds fault with their methodology I will side
with them since they are as data-driven and straightforward as a campaign can get.

[AverageJoe90]

67. Yep.

Normally, Gallup does a good job. But it seems that they've been fucking up lately just like Pew did with that one poll.

[Hutzpa]

27. Yes, there are lot of stupid people out there

but polls like this are design for these stupid people, to confuse and distort. The game being played by republicans now is simple, enforce their shill to go all over the Internet to post outliers polls to confuse LIV's.

[fugop]

5. Is approval tied to likely voters?

Because it's the likely voter screen that's pumping Romney up to 50%.

[Shivering Jemmy]

7. I think I can make sense of that

Approval is from three day tracker is it not? Voting pref is from 7 day tracker for sure. If I'm right on first point last three days much better than first four. Which is about when gap in RVs started to close.

[Mass]

9. approval rating is measured during 3 consecutive days. race numbers are measured during 7 days.

This can explain a lot.

[WI_DEM]

15. well it could indicate that in the last three days Obama had some good polling

because the job numbers are three day polls while the horse race numbers are 7-days.

[AtomicKitten]

3. O can remedy this with a strong debate performance tonight.

[flamingdem]

6. I call BS - poll fraud

all that dark money has it's target

[Maximumnegro]

18. O team has already panned Gallup's

likely voter methodology and said that their RV is more accurate. The whole Gallup LV switch situation is sketchy.

[ProSense]

10. Looks like Biden's debate performance

swung the race for Mitt.

What exactly happened in the last few days that's shifting the race to Mitt?



http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx

[speedoo]

21. Actually, it's the media's treatment of Biden's debate performance.

They have been working Biden over hard.

[RBInMaine]

71. Swung the race for Mitt? Crazy comment. This is ONE poll. Others have Obama ahead. CUT THE SHIT !

[BraKez2]

11. I'm a little late to the party...

but does anybody know how they differentiate Likely v. Registered?

[Maximumnegro]

22. That's the question. Obama campaign

questioned Gallup:

"The Obama campaign quickly disputed the (USA Today/Gallup) poll's findings. It circulated a memo from pollster Joel Benenson calling the USA Today/Gallup poll “an extreme outlier” that defies “the trends seen in every other battleground and national poll.”

The memo pointed to past Gallup surveys that deviated from the final outcome, and said the current results underscore “deep flaws in Gallup’s likely voter screen.”

[WI_DEM]

12. Why didn't you put the approval/disapproval #'s??? 49/45 3-day sample

The other is a seven day sample. The three day sample shows Obama's approval rating going up +1 and disapproval down -2. When Obama's job ratings began to go up last time so did his numbers among likely and registered voters. As I pointed out this is a 3-day sample for job rating so there is a good chance that in the next few days as bad numbers drop off the likely/registered numbers that he will begin to go up.

[dennis4868]

20. seems like..

we have been saying for a couple weeks now...just wait till Obama's bad days drop off and Romney keeps increasing his LV lead. Something else is going on here.

[WI_DEM]

23. No, when he had a couple of weeks ago a 52-41 job rating his numbers

were much better. The job numbers are important. They went up in the last three days, so there is a chance that his horse race numbers will go up, too if it is maintained. You don't always have to look gloomily on a poll you can also find traces of good news if you try.

[Maximumnegro]

28. He's increasing his GALLUP LEAD. Jesus Christ.

You are trolling this sh*t out of this. The question is why is Gallup not showing the gains Obama has been making in the other polls.

Answer that.

[dennis4868]

41. why should Gallup show other polls

that's not their job. Don't call me a troll....been a member of DU since day one...I am just concerned...WHY IS IT THAT YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO BE CONCERNED HERE ABOUT THE CAMPAIGN...Should we all just be in a fantasy world and say things are going great? WTH?

[Maximumnegro]

52. YOU make it a fantasy world. YOU.

Like a Republican you INSIST that your doom is everyone else's doom and you are not content until you get agreement. Misery loves company. It's not fantasy. Your data for your opinion is inconclusive. It doesn't even merit discussion.

[amborin]

17. I just made another donation to the Obama campaign

I believe the outcome will hinge on GOTV and ads.

Rove and Reed are bombarding the swing states with ads.

We need to be doing the same, and countering some of their better ones.

Since I live in CA and don't watch TV, I have no idea if ours are rebutting theirs.

I hope so.

[jvjr711]

19. OK - Reuters/IPSOS Poll has Obama 46% over Willard 43%

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/16/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89F14C20121016

Don't Panic -- Obama will come through tonight.

[dennis4868]

39. isn't that poll

not reliable...it's an online poll?

[Mass]

42. Not online. Internet poll.

Not the same thing.

[ProSense]

49. Is is unreliable because it shows Obama ahead?

Is this poll unreliable: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021541788

[Blaukraut]

25. Does Gallup push leaners? Noticed how Obama has 46 in both gallup and reuters (-1 from yesterday)

That might make some sense.

[Mass]

29. Tracking polls are all over the place.

Rand: O +4 (7 days)
Ipsos: O +3 (5 days)
Idb: tied as of yesterday
Rasmussen: R +2 (3 days)
Gallup: R +4 (7 days)

My feeling is that it really depends who you get on the phone on a particular day.

[budkin]

68. Just wait until after tonight

[politicman]

30. polls are crazy

These polls are really crazy.

Some tracking polls have Obama extending his lead AND some tracking polls have Obama losing ground.

Some state polls show Romney's bounce has receeded, some show Romney still gaining.

Some national polls show Obama leading, others show Romney extening his lead.

If one was to put all these differences down to polling noise, YOU would at least expect all the polls to show whi9ch way the momentum is heading at least.

Like I said, some tracking polls show momentum with Obama, others show momentum with Romney.

Which ones are right?

[Blaukraut]

31. Common denominator in all polls except Rand! Obama is at 46 to 47%. This could definitely be trouble

I'm not usually a concern troll, but I just noticed that. He's not breaking out above 47 anywhere, but Romney is in two polls. I'm guessing when pushed, undecideds go for Romney.

[jvjr711]

34. Perhaps, but one glaring question...

Are they breaking for him in critical swing states?

[dennis4868]

38. agree...

that's why many of us are worried right now and don't know if the debates will even help at this point in time.

[jvjr711]

51. Reality will help Obama win.

The debates will help provided he performs well. The ground game is superior to Willard's ground game. There is a reason why Willard's sole focus is Ohio right now -- he is in a desperate situation and MUST win that state. Obama campaign can exploit this round of game theory in their favor by competing there while also placing resources in other close swing states (FL, VA, CO, NV, IA, NH). Obama has Willard in the corner -- will he deliver the knockout blow or win by technical knockout?

[TexasCPA]

46. It's all about tonight

Those people that are slightly leaning toward Romney can lean back in the right direction if Obama delivers.

[mzmolly]

63. Not in the unbiasd RV category.

Obama has been consistently above 47, sans the recent rolling data.

[helpisontheway]

33. Well...

Before we said Romney could not get over 47%. Well, he has done it in two polls today. The 50% mark is big. I think this thing is just about over. People are starting to believe Romney's lies. Not even sure the debate will help. People will probably think Obama is not being truthful (and is desperate)since he did not confront Romney last time. Last time I felt in my gut that Obama was going to win. Starting to get that sinking feeling about Romney. Just pisses me off that people could be do stupid.

[Maximumnegro]

35. LOL here we go!....

The doomsters are all in on this thread. Push away!

[dennis4868]

37. people have to get with reality..

been following election for 40 years...you get the feeling the ship is sinking right now. People should be allowed to come here and say what they want even if you don't like it, right?

[dennis4868]

36. I agree with you...

I know some will bash you and call you a troll for saying that but you are only stating the obvious...we are a deep shit right now. I also agree that the next 2 debates will probably not make a difference unless Romney just screws up big time which I am not counting on. This is depressing because just a few weeks ago we were thinking this may be an Obama landslide. It makes me sick to my stomach with the fucking image of Romney going to the WH after he wins to meet with Obama and then the day Obama leaves the WH and Romney makes his Inauguration speech. I am feeling so sick, I need Tylenol!

[ProSense]

40. I look forward to your reaction when the media

tells you Mitt won tonight's debate.

You seem fixated on the polls that show Obama behind, weighing them more than those that show him ahead.

[dennis4868]

50. I make up my own mind...

as to won the debate...don't need the media to tell me. Let's face it, every poll, with the exception of a few, are heading in Romney's direction, state and nationally. Get with reality!

[ProSense]

54. Nonsense. n/t

[Maximumnegro]

43. Just slit them already.

Okay maybe not. I will be a little bit kind. You have issues. If you are unable to have a proper perspective of the state of the race then don't post. Even let's say you're right, doomdoomdoom, we need to get out the vote. So suck it up and encourage anyway. This is what differentiates a supporter from a troll whether intentional or not. If you can't find it within yourself to promote your candidate 3 WEEKS before and election then don't post. It's that simple. The time for internal critiquing and armchair advisory is over. You're either in for the win or out for the count.

Because right now you're not being a Democrat, you are not unifying, you are not playing your part in a community when it needs you the most. This is a game to you, otherwise you would not be throwing cheetos at the screen. So man up and make a difference or throw the toaster in the tub and get out of the way.

[CityDem]

56. Same Feeling

One month ago I was feeling pretty good about Obama's chances with the national polls showing a reasonable margin and the swing state polls showing even better results. This all changed after the first debate. I initially discounted the changes in the polls after the first debate --- looking at them as a temporary post debate bounce. Waited for the Biden debate to turn the tide, but the momentum still appears to be with Romney. This was always going to be a close race, but I believe the first debate was a game changer. It appears the small minority of undecided voters are breaking the wrong way which is not uncommon when an incumbent is facing a challenging election.

The trend is not good and it is not helpful to discount the polls just because they are reporting numbers that are not favorable. I am beginning to resign myself that there is a possibility that Obama will lose the election, which makes me sick. The momentum is not with us and I am unsure what can be done to change it. Unless Obama decimates Romney in the debate tonight I am not sure this election can be turned around. Just being a realist, albeit a depressed realist.

[dennis4868]

59. I feel the same as you...

well put! Let's hope for a miracle.

[Tippy]

44. Remember something....the election is not over until the votes are counted

Polls are just that polls....They only count votes...We still have time to help GOTV......

[woolldog]

45. Troubling

These numbers are similar to the Kos numbers released today. We're losing nationally right now. That's clear. Still have an advantage in the electoral college, but things are looking grim.

[Cosmocat]

64. I don't get it

but, the numbers are the numbers ...

[JiminyJominy]

48. disheartening

[Blaukraut]

55. Not disheartening. Motivating to push GOTV. That's where the difference is made

So, no. We're not going to cower in our corners, crying. We know what's at stake and will work all the harder now to keep a pathological lying psychopath from becoming president.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

53. It's about the approval numbers folks

That's more than likely going to be Obama's popular vote percentage in the election.

[bemildred]

57. I have just started trashing all of these FUD threads. nt

[Azathoth]

58. Obama better turn in the best debate performance of his life tonight

Or the next two and a half weeks are going to be very painful for a lot of people.

[Cosmocat]

65. He needs to ring the bell ...

flat out ...

[iloveObama12]

60. This Gallup Poll A Damn Joke

[DemocratSinceBirth]

62. Don't Forget Gallup Isn't Infallible

They had Bush* and Ford winning the popular vote and have been off by several percent in other presidential elections. It just so happened those elections weren't close enough for it to matter.

[MSMITH33156]

66. Tracking polls

having rolling averages. On a day to day basis, all they are doing is dropping off data from a day last week and adding yesterday. Meaning 6 days worth of data are static. That means one particularly strong day of polling (outlier) or weak day (outlier) would stay in the system for a week before getting ignored, and that a 1 day movement like this only means that Obama had a stronger day on October 8th then October 15th. What it means for the overall race? Who knows. I prefer snap shot polls versus trackers for the reasons I outlined, but we'll see if the trackers ever become consistent. They are literally sliding in different directions right now.

[creon]

69. close election

I suspect that the reason these polls are all over the place is that the election is too close to call. I think that the polls reflect that.; and that it is not possible to measure when it is as close as I think that it is.

Also, I have deal doubts about polling: the polling agency does not know who they are talking to; many people will - intentionally - duck the call.

I know that I would not take the call. If I made a mistake and took the call, I would not answer any questions. I would tell that is none of their business.

[mvd]

70. Maybe Sunday was a weirdly pro-Romney day in this poll too, and

yesterday was better. There has to be an outlier day in there. Obama must have a throng debate tonight, though. I don't think I can watch. Romney would be worst President ever (even worse than Bush since the Greedy Old Party has gone even more teabagger) and not MY President! Other polls are good, so won't worry unless we are here a week from now.