2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPoll:Trump, Clinton way ahead of the pack in North Carolina C:57; BS: 34
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article65511957.html . Hillary leads at 57% in North Carolina
March 11, 2016 5:06 PM
Poll:Trump, Clinton way ahead of the pack in North Carolina
Though N.C. primary is Tuesday, many have already voted
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, shown here at a March 1 rally in Miami, is way ahead among Democratic voters in North Carolina, according to a new High Point University Poll.
By Tim Funk
A poll released Friday by High Point University echoes what previous surveys have said about Tuesdays North Carolina primary: Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton are way ahead in their respective races.
The new poll, conducted after early voting began March 3, found that among likely Republican primary voters and those who have already voted, 48 percent favor billionaire businessman Trump, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is the runner-up, with 28 percent. Ohio Gov. John Kasich got 12 percent in the poll; Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who has the most endorsements from N.C. public officials, received just 8 percent.
In the Democratic primary, according to the poll, former Secretary of State Clinton is leading Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, 58 percent to 34 percent, among likely and actual voters.
................... Clinton will return to the state on Monday night for a rally at the Grady Cole Center in Charlotte.
Also voting Tuesday: Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Missouri.
.....
Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article65511957.html#storylink=cpy
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oasis
(49,386 posts)kcjohn1
(751 posts)I see things that are very wrong with it.
1) Primarily landline poll (78% Landline; 22% other methods which I'm not sure how solid that is)
2) It's likely electorate is VERY VERY old. 77% of the voters according to this poll will be 50+. That is crazy. In Michigan 19% were 18-29, 26% 30-44 for total 45%. According to this poll they'll be 4x as many 65+ voters as 18-29. Just ridiculous high. In Michigan 18-29 voted pretty much at same clip as 65+ crowd.
The reason for this is if you look at their methodology, for person to be likely voter they would have had to vote in every election since they registered. Basically for those registered prior to 2008, they had to vote in the 2012 primary which was uncontested + 2014 general election. Bernie whole campaign is focused on those who don't vote in every election. Risky, but if he gets out the vote like in MI, these polls are irrelevant.
SMC22307
(8,090 posts)RALEIGH Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders drew thousands of supporters to a rally in downtown Raleigh on Friday, four days before primary elections in North Carolina and four other states.
At least 1,000 people showed up who couldnt get inside the 2,300-seat Memorial Auditorium, which was full. Sanders emerged on the steps of the venue and addressed the outside crowd before delivering his speech inside.
....
The Vermont senator hit all his campaign notes campaign finance reform, student debt, health care, war, pay equity and the environment among them and emphasized womens and minority issues. He met briefly before his speech with the African-American caucus of the N.C. Democratic Party, and with John Boyd Jr., a Virginia activist and founder of an advocacy group for black farmers. Afterward, Boyd endorsed him.
Caucus official Jaymes Powell Jr. said his group wasnt making an endorsement but liked what Sanders had to say on most issues.
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http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article65465677.html#storylink=cpy
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Probably another 100 delegate gain.