After Michigan, biased polls and projections have lost their influence, their power of intimidation.

[reformist2]

After Michigan, everything has changed. Politicians know that there is a segment of the population that is weak willed, and that can be swayed into voting for the front-runner, just because they want to be on the "winning" side. This usually works because usually there isn't all that much difference between the two candidates.

What Michigan proved is that this trick isn't working on the voters this year - voters are going out there and voting for who they actually want, win or lose... probably because there is simply too much of a difference between the two candidates!

Michigan was an epic blow to the big money propagandists, and a shining example of what can happen when ordinary people just go out there and vote their consciences!

[ladjf]

1. I'm still worried. The "horns of the Establishment bull" are dangerous.

It's being challenged now and opposition brings out the worst in him. Those money grabbing sons of bitches will through everything at the challengers.

[reformist2]

3. True. They are going to "catapult the propaganda"... but will it work???

They are going to come up with outright lies about Bernie and his radicalism. We have to be prepared for the onslaught.

[HereSince1628]

2. IMO Michigan showed that a reactive electorate and an open primary can turn very quickly

on a single statement in what passes for a debate in the US.

IMO it wasn't merely that the polling was bad sensu poor designed, it's that the situation in MI was too dynamic to capture on Friday news dumps of data gathered during the prior week.

While I accept that some polling -is- bad by design, I'll wait to see how predictions of FL and IL go before I completely toss polling as incapable of being generally predictive.

[Barack_America]

5. A stark warning for the General Election.

This election is a tinderbox. Better to have a candidate that represents that sentiment, than one that tries to quench it. Like water on a grease fire.

[HereSince1628]

8. I don't understand...what I'm saying is the circumstance in MI allowed for volatility

Open primary, a 'debate' just before the vote, some say a misstep during that debate...

Exit polling suggested a large fraction of people made up their mind to participate in the last few days before the election. Polls that did their data collecting a week early didn't capture that.

In FL the primary is closed. Only people who decided a least a month before will participate, their minds are less likely to be changed in the closing week of the state's primary campaigning. That circumstance provides less opening for last minute volatility, and polls from there are less likely to be surprised by late-breaking changes.

I think we should look at more polls to see when they work and when they don't. Setting intentionally biased polling aside, I suspect there is a somewhat predictable pattern in the vulnerabilities of even honest polling that relates to the very nature of the state contests.

[JackRiddler]

24. The more people make up their minds in the next days...

the better for Sanders.

[HereSince1628]

25. True he's done well in the news...but in FL's closed primary

they'd have had to opted in a month ago.

All their sudden enthusiasm would be thwarted by a primary structure that works against suddenly surging candidates.

Just as one might suspect from a conservative place in the country.

[DCBob]

4. The MI polling failed due to not taking into account being an open primary and young voter turnout.

Polling in the south on the other hand has been quite reliable. I doubt there will be another "Michigan" on Tuesday but who knows for sure.

[Barack_America]

7. There will be. Sanders will park in Ohio after today.

He's spent his time protecting the margins in FL, NC, IL and MO (which he will win). Then it will be the full court press in OH, just like he did MI last week.

After that, it's a matter of weather, enthusiasm and voter turnout.

[DCBob]

9. Of course winning by a couple of percentage points doesnt really help Bernie much.

He needs some big wins in some big delegate states to close the gap. I dont see anything like that on Tuesday or down the road... except perhaps Wash and Oregon but that will be too little too late.

[restorefreedom]

15. after tuesday, we enter bernieland

he will start winning big in more favorable states. the delegate lead will dissolve like sugar in hot coffee


and tuesday a few surprises will keep the delegste count close

[DCBob]

17. I have looked at the calendar of upcoming primaries and I dont see where Bernie gains much.

In fact April 26 looks like its going to be another big day for Hillary.

All those states MD, PA, CT, RI and DE are likely to go to Hillary and probably in a big way. Plus NY on April 19th. All told probably another ~100 delegate gain.

Bernie will probably do well from March 22-April 9 but I doubt he gains more than 60 delegates during that stretch. So by the end of April looks like he is farther behind.

May will likely be good for Bernie with WV and Oregon but those arent big delegate states so overall I doubt he gains more than 40 delegates if that.

June we have CA and NJ both big delegate hauls. NJ looks good for Hillary and CA maybe a tossup.

Bottom line.. Bernie will win some states and collect alot of delegates but it wont be near enough to win. I suspect by end of the process Hillary will end up leading by well over 300 delegates.

[restorefreedom]

19. i think those states you listed

will surprise some, pa, like michigan and ohio will go bernie...jobs, nafta, etc

md was omalleys state, and he is pretty progressive...i could see that going bernie

ct and ri, being very close to ma, since michigan, i would say higher chance of them going bernie

deleware don't know

california will go bernie imo. jersey could go either way

and don't waste your effort clipping polls about how she is ahead...i think its clear polls are meaningless and unreliable at this point

just trying to save you some extra typing

[DCBob]

22. LOL.. you are way off.

Not just polls but past performance in adjacent states and logic.

[restorefreedom]

23. well, then, its pudding time! cuz thats where the proof will be

[Garrett78]

26. I'm not so sure about CT and RI, but agree with you for the most part.

PA might be fairly close, and I could see Sanders winning CT and RI.

In general, though, Sanders will do best in smaller and less diverse states. Clinton will do better in larger and more diverse states--especially if they don't have open primaries, which are ripe for manipulation (in Michigan, she beat Sanders 57-41 among registered Democrats).

In the 8 contests between March 16 and New York, I think the best case scenario for Sanders is that he picks up ~80 more delegates than Clinton does over those 8 contests. If he's down by 350+ after March 15, 80 (again, best case scenario) only puts a dent into Clinton's lead.

[reformist2]

14. But all the pollsters knew that, so why didn't they account for it??? We all know the reason.

[DCBob]

18. That's good question and I dont know the reason.

I would imagine that all want to be recognized for being accurate. I guess they simply assumed MI would follow previous models.. it didnt.

[Buzz Clik]

6. All polls are run by big money propagandists to manipulate weaked willed voters?

Here are all the polls taken in Michigan, and these are the final numbers:



So Monmouth College, Michigan State, and all the rest are "run by big money propagandists"? Fascinating.

[reformist2]

11. Actually, it wouldn't surprise me. The moneyed interests in this country have influence all over.

Anyone who has worked in the private sector knows full well the pressure put on employees to produce the desired result.

[mythology]

16. So in other words

You have no proof but are perfectly willing to make things up to suit your bias. Got it.

[Land of Enchantment]

10. For whatever it's worth

I've seen two interesting points raised--that MOST polls were asked only of registered democrats, likely voters, etc and NO independents and that it is impossible to poll the millennials because they all have mobile phones (as opposed to land lines) and the youngest of this group do not show up on the radar as having voted at least once.

[reformist2]

12. Wow, without independents or young people, they all knew their results were garbage. And yet...

And yet they went ahead and published them anyway.

[Land of Enchantment]

21. Xactly. They have built

an erroneous system based on outdated modes of gathering information. The models they are knowingly using are outdated and inaccurate but my guess is they have made professions and careers and probably fortunes from this and have no way to adjust and update their methods. The ONLY accurate polls are the Exit Polls and Rove et al managed to convince the public at large THOSE were wrong (Ohio 2004) which Kerry actually won.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

13. There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. Mark Twain

[Bestuserever]

20. Maybe