2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRank the Mar 15 states from worst to best chance for a Bernie upset
So the 5 states voting on Tuesday are, to varying degrees, expected to be Clinton wins (Expectations in the sense of polls, predictive analyses, etc). Now, instead of doing a normal vote percentage prediction like usual, I figured it might be better to just rank the states by best chance for Bernie to get a win.
So, for me, they are as below (Most favorable to least favorable):
Ohio
Missouri
Illinois
North Carolina
Florida
EmperorHasNoClothes
(4,797 posts)Spot on.
Uglystick
(88 posts)This will be the first time she starts to lose her delegate count.
They are already recalculating Iowa, and it's not looking good for Clinton.
Punkingal
(9,522 posts)A Bernie sweep would rock the world!
Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)On the board that get me into trouble.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...is for someone who thinks Sanders will win the nomination to demonstrate with delegate math how they think that's going to happen. I read post after post suggesting that he has a good chance of winning and that those who make the case that he doesn't have a good chance are wrong. But those folks need to crunch the numbers, as they say, and back up their statements. Otherwise they come across as people who haven't actually put any thought into why they claim what they claim, people who are emulating politicians with empty rhetoric.
What do they think the delegate margin will be after March 15? Why? What do they think the margin will be heading into New York following what many are expecting to be a good stretch (of 8 contests) for Sanders? What do they think will happen in New York?
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)but i would add that imo the only safe clinton win is florida, and even that could be in play after the debate
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Missouri and Ohio will be close.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)illinois? after this weeknd and the loss in Michigan. not to mention the loquan mcdonald/rahm stuff biting back
mmmmm...illinois will be very close, and a bernie win is likely imo
but as with all things, we will know soon enough
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)Her blowout win there will almost by itself offset anything Sanders can do with the delegate count anywhere else for the night.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)lots of delegstes to erase a minor 200 lead
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)rules is huge. In fact it would take a total collapse from the Clinton campaign to lose a lead like that. And it's all because of the proportional system the democrats use to award delegates.
Plus, after Tuesday she will likely add 50 or 100 delegates to this total.
In the states that follow this Tuesday, Sanders can take away her momentum and he certainly will win many states.... but the pledged delegate count is a completely different matter.
Hillary is the commanding favorite. It's simple math.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)but the states coming up have huge delegstes, easily can erase the lead, especially with the implosion of the clinton campaign
never even mind if an indictment comes down regarding the foundation. then its over real quick.
Kaleva
(36,298 posts)Bernie is further behind then he was at the end of last month. And many of the upcoming primaries are closed which favors HRC.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...than it is currently.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)hillary can only really win (and certainly win big) in southern states, and those are behind her. she lost several northern and midwestern states and one western (co). her best states will be behind her after tuesday and may be already.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Demographically-speaking, each of the states of the Deep South are more reflective of the overall Democratic electorate than each of the states Sanders has won (with the exception of Michigan). As I wrote following the Michigan primary, Michigan represents the first diverse, populous "blue" state primary of this campaign. Some are claiming that Michigan proves Clinton can't win outside of the Deep South, but the sample size is way too small. And it's important to not conflate the Democratic electorate of the Deep South with the overall electorate of the Deep South. Time will tell how much Clinton struggles outside of the Deep South. Just as time will tell how successful Sanders can be outside of New England and small caucus states that lack diversity. For now, we have one -- ONE -- data point (Michigan) where the candidates were separated by a mere 18,400 votes (out of more than 1.1 million ballots), so we can't make any determinations one way or another (especially given that it was an open primary, which - unfortunately - is ripe for manipulation). We aren't going to learn much from Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, etc. But March 15 (Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Florida and North Carolina) and Arizona on the 22nd will offer more data points. In April, there's New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania. Those are the states that will determine which narrative is true (Clinton can't win outside of the Deep South vs. Sanders can't win delegate-rich states that are relatively diverse).
It's worth noting that most of the remaining primaries/caucuses are closed, and Clinton won 57-41 among registered Democrats in Michigan.
I would like to think most folks understand the obvious flaw in simply tallying the number of states won, yet numerous posters seem to think that's a perfectly valid form of comparison. Likewise, suggesting that Sanders being likely to win a majority of the remaining 29 states (a prediction that I think has merit) equates to him being likely to win the nomination is rather foolish. I shouldn't even have to point out that some states have *way* more people/delegates than other states--so, no, not all states are equal. Sanders could win 16 or 17 of the remaining 29 states and still get crushed.
Lastly, I want to address the simplistic electoral map I've seen posted more than once. I don't think simplistic, black and white thinking is something to promote or aspire to. I vividly recall a map that was quite popular among Bush supporters following the 2000 election. It showed a map of the US in which each *county* was red or blue depending on which candidate (Bush or Gore) had won a majority (or plurality) of that county's votes. The map, of course, was overwhelmingly red. Hopefully you all can immediately understand the enormous flaw with this perspective. Counties with more cows than people are given the same weight as every other county, including Los Angeles County and Cook County (the 2 most populous counties in the US). Also, it treats a 0.1% margin of victory the same as a 40% margin of victory. This is why there are a variety of cartograms. Wikipedia defines a cartogram as "a map in which some thematic mapping variable such as travel time, population, or Gross National Product is substituted for land area or distance. The geometry or space of the map is distorted in order to convey the information of this alternate variable." In the case of the 2016 Democratic primaries, some states that have voted so far would be made much smaller and others would be made much bigger. And instead of showing a state in a single solid color, it would show the state in various shades/mixes of the 2 candidate colors. You can view some examples below. The map in the lower right is likely the most accurate representation of the 2004 presidential election results, but I suspect many are put off by the unfamiliarity of it. "The US doesn't look like that," one might say. Politically, yes it does.
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Garrett78
(10,721 posts)A lot of folks say they expect Sanders to do well in the 8 contests between March 15 and New York. But I'm really curious to know how much thought has been put into where people expect the race to stand at that point. Do you think her lead will be smaller than it is currently heading into the New York primary? If so, how much smaller?
Also, do you expect Sanders to win New York? If so, by how much? Remember, after March 15th, nearly every primary/caucus is closed. And most contests are primaries, not caucuses, especially after April 9th.
It's one thing to say Sanders will make big gains (especially in the reddest of red states, by the way). It's another thing to demonstrate that you've thought about the specifics.
mak3cats
(1,573 posts)...and even with the PTB of the local Democratic committees pushing Hillary, the only Hillary bumper sticker I have seen is "Hillary for Prison - 2016." (I'm a committee member - her support in the rank and file is lukewarm if there at all.) But I've seen lots of Bernie stickers, and a few lawn signs even though we're not supposed to put them out until 30 days prior to an election. (Mine has been out since last fall.)
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...does that mean you expect Sanders to win New York? By a small margin? By 10+ points?
Heading into New York, what would you expect Clinton's lead to be? More than it is currently or less than it is currently?
mak3cats
(1,573 posts)...lots of time between now and April 19th. But considering her lead in NY is only 21 points now (although unchanged from a month ago), there's a lot of room for movement. And I believe the momentum is likely to shift Bernie's way before then.
https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/clinton-trump-continue-to-hold-commanding-leads-in-new-york-in-their-respec
Sanders leads the four Republicans in Democrat vs. Republican general election match-ups by between 19 and 37 points, while Clinton leads those same Republicans by seven to 25 points. If Michael Bloomberg runs as in independent, he gets about one-quarter of the vote, while Sanders has a 14-point lead and Clinton leads by 16 points.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)perhaps in bernie group, i don't remember as i unfortunately did not bookmark them. also could be in gdp
but several folks have done some nice predictions about the particulars.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Do you think Clinton's lead will be greater or smaller at the end of March than it is currently? If smaller, please explain. Of the 792 March 15 delegates, how do you think they'll be split between the 2 candidates? Do you think, heading into the New York primary, Clinton's lead will be greater than it is now or less or about the same? Do you think Sanders will win New York?
NWCorona
(8,541 posts)Might help Bernie more than expected
onehandle
(51,122 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)By which I mean open primaries are ripe for manipulation via gamesmanship. I'm sure some independent and non-affiliated voters truly are voting for their preferred candidate, but I also think some (impossible to say just how many) are attempting to manipulate the results. If you're a Republican, you have an interest in a drawn-out primary process for Democrats. And vice versa. Like I said, I have no idea to what extent disingenuous people are voting, but it's safe to say it does happen. Even here at DU there was a thread about whether Democrats should participate in Republican primaries that are open.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)but we don't stop giving people food stamps. i don't know where you stand on the matter of open primaries, but some here have become openly hostile towards them because they are allowing independents to vote for bernie.
i am all for open primaries, and if a candidate can only win in closed primaries, that speaks to their weakness, despite any small amount of gamesmanship that might occur.
loyalsister
(13,390 posts)I think Bernie will win in Boone County (Mizzou territory).
Hillary's campaign is focused on KC and STL. Both have wealthy suburbs as well as areas that have suffered because of NAFTA, so those counties will be hotly contested. There are universities with a wealth of younger potential voters in both regions. I would expect Springfield to lean towards Hillary, but again, some colleges and the youth vote.
State reps are very divided with the Black members leaning toward Bernie.
If Bernie wins in MO it will likely be because of the youth vote, and they are very motivated and empowered after seeing that they can use their power to unseat a university system pres. I think he has a good chance.
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)Ohio
Illinois
Missouri
North Carolina
Florida
We absolutely can't count out the younger voters who are not being polled at the moment. We also can't count out last minute news that can tip people into another direction in the last days leading up to the vote.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)I am wondering what the black vote will look like for Hillary in Chicago with her close ties to the controversial Mayor.
If Sanders can cut into Hillary's margin in the Chicago area... maybe and I emphasize MAYBE... he has a shot to make it close.
amborin
(16,631 posts)aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)And this is where Sanders has his problem. A close win by Sanders in Ohio and Missouri will not be enough to offset her blowout victories in Florida and possibly North Carolina with delegates.
Hillary's delegate lead will increase again by the end of Tuesday night. This is tough and even unfair to the Sanders campaign. Even if Hillary loses what is by far the most important state of the night, Ohio... her delegate lead increases.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Those 2 states, man.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)There is something wrong with our nominating process when a candidate could win important states like Ohio and Michigan and still lose in the delegate race because another candidate does well in Louisiana and Mississippi. But those are the rules.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)And there are a lot of Democrats down south, many of whom are very liberal. Ohio gets delegates based on the population, same as any other state.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)congressional district votes historically. Districts that are reliably democratic are worth more than districts that are Republican. So not only is it district population, but WHAT districts you win is just as important as how many.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)It's highly unlikely that the Republican nominee can win without both of those states, especially Florida, which has more electoral college votes. The electoral college map certainly favors the Democratic nominee given the demographics of today.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)Pretty confident this represents the order of states Bernie will do best in, to worse in.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)MO, OH, IL are well within reach (in order)
NC, FL further away
So that's the same order I'll go with.
Loki
(3,825 posts)Socialism won't go over well with the country Christian voters and they always show up. It's more Dems that vote for Democrats and KC and St Louis are the big Democratic bases with large AA communities AA mayors and representatives. No polling for a long time but she was ahead by over 30 percentage points when they did.
I found further information on current polling so I though I would post it. Since I live in Missouri I think I have better feel for this state.
http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article65446592.html
mvd
(65,173 posts)Wouldn't rule out a surprise in NC.
jfern
(5,204 posts)basselope
(2,565 posts)Missouri
Ohio
Illinois
North Carolina
Florida
I Missouri is a lock and Ohio is very likely.
Illinois I would put in toss up category right now and NC into a "leans Hillary" and Florida into a Strong Hillary spot.
I am hoping to walk away with 3/5 and keep the momentum going.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I wouldn't call Missouri a lock, but it's the least diverse of the 5 states. If Sanders wins 3 of the 5, he'll win the narrative battle heading into what could be a fairly good stretch of contests for him. But if he loses ground on Tuesday in spite of winning 3 of 5, Clinton will remain a heavy favorite.