2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary telling Youngstown she would tweak TPP "rules of origin" ? Apparently they can't be tweaked
Last edited Sun Mar 13, 2016, 07:20 PM - Edit history (1)
Clinton believes that automakers from Japan and other countries which source cheaper parts made in China shouldn't be able to benefit from trade deals if their cars are assembled from parts manufactured abroad, an aide said.
http://www.autonews.com/article/20160312/OEM/303129993/0?cciid=internal-anhome-mostright
BUT, i am told that now that the TPP has been fast tracked, it is not even possible to tweak it; plus, tweaking the rules of origin does nothing to undo the TPP's devastating impact on American workers:
Between 1997 and 2014, America lost more than 5 million manufacturing jobs. The vast majority, according to the Economic Policy Institute, vanished as a result of growing trade deficits with America's free-trade and investment-deal partners. Some 850,000 jobs were lost to NAFTA after it took effect in 1994. China's entry into the WTO in 2001 cost the United States a staggering 3.2 million manufacturing jobs over the next dozen years.
But the numbers on the TPP look even worse. The Wall Street Journal calculates that by 2025, the deal would increase the U.S. trade deficit in manufacturing, car assembly and car parts by $55.8 billion a year. At that rate, based on the U.S. Department of Commerce formula for jobs created by exports, the TPP would cost another 323,000 American manufacturing workers their jobs. That's almost a million jobs every three years.
And that is a conservative estimate, because the TPP negotiators failed to include enforceable methods to stop foreign labor abuses, including poverty wages and perilous working conditions. This facilitates a race to the bottom. Corporations move factories overseas because they can't get away with paying Americans the $107 a month that is the wage floor in Vietnam.
Also, disastrously, the TPP would lower the minimum requirement for cars and auto parts to be considered pro- duced by a U.S. trade partner. The proportion would fall from 62.5 percent under NAFTA to 45 percent under the TPP, which means more than half of a vehicle could be manufactured in China while auto companies would still benefit from zero U.S. tariffs.
-Leo Gerard, President, United Steelworkers
snip
Yet the TPP fails to address the main reason for our large and persistent trade deficit: currency manipulation by other countries.
Lowering ones currency by 10 percent against the dollar has the same effect as imposing a 10 percent tariff on all imports and paying a 10 percent subsidy on exports. Raising the price of exports and lowering the price of imports makes U.S. goods and services less competitive internationally and domestically.
A number of countries, including TPP parties Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam, have engaged in this practice over the last two decades, driving up the U.S. trade deficit.
from:
8 Terrible Things About the TPP
Moberg, David. In These Times 40.1 (Jan 2016): 24-25,27,29.
snip
Even the best rules, which were not included in TPP, if unenforced, are essentially worthless. How trade rules are implemented, how we monitor imports, obtain market access for our exports and how we enforce our rules are all critical to any deals success.
So far, there has been no progress or willingness of the Administration to even discuss specific steps that could be taken.
TPP may be the final blow to manufacturing in America. Our producers and workers are under siege from other nations massive overproduction, foreign currency devaluation, our own lack of long-term infrastructure investment and the strong dollar.
Contrary to the rosy rhetoric and false promises, a long history of trade agreements proves that the TPP will have a devastating impact upon our families, our jobs, and this nation.
This offshoring lets them pocket the wage and protection differential while enabling them to use havens to dodge U.S. taxes.
Studies by outside groups have determined that whatever TPPs economic effect is for Wall Street and U.S. multinational corporations, it will not by favorable for U.S. workers or the economy. For example, from December, Important Report Says TPP Skews Benefits To Economic Elites:
The congressionally created Labor Advisory Committee for Trade Negotiations and Trade Policy (LAC) has just released a scathing report that urges President Obama in the strongest possible terms to send the Trans-Pacific Partnership back to the negotiating table instead of to Congress, saying the treaty will harm our economy overall.
The TPP is likely to harm U.S. manufacturing interests, cost good jobs, suppress wages, and threaten our democracy and economic security interests, the report said.
Note that laying off U.S. workers, closing the factory, moving production out of the country, then importing the same goods to sell in the same outlets to the same customers increases trade because now those goods cross a border......
reports indicate that, substandard labor standards remain weak and ineffective, currency manipulation has not been effectively addressed, rules of origin for autos are greatly weakened, access to affordable medicines is reduced, post Great Recession financial regulations were made less effective, and secret non-governmental tribunals will interpret and enforce the agreement.
As job and income growth continue to stagnate, Americans know that the economic system is rigged against them and the TPP is just the latest example....
http://www.usw.org/blog/2016/what-to-watch-for-next-in-the-fight-against-the-tpp
djean111
(14,255 posts)with the help of the GOP, nothing can be changed or added or deleted. Saying the TPP can be tweaked is an utter bald-faced lie.
amborin
(16,631 posts)she told folks in Youngstown that she would tweak the rules of origin (but not being at all specific); but it's meaningless
b/c the rules are ignored in any case, and, as you say, they can't be revised now
amborin
(16,631 posts)djean111
(14,255 posts)Bernie needs to bring Fast Track up. Obama wanted Fast Track very badly, because then nothing could be changed. Minimal debate, minimal time for Congress to study it.
If Hillary is not aware of that, the job is too much for her. And, since she was involved enough with the TPP to travel around the world shilling for it, I cannot believe she has no idea about Fast track.
amborin
(16,631 posts)and maybe he's raised the issue in other arenas.
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)Here at home some people will look back fondly on ACA. Some will not. Some will view it as a give away to the insurance companies. Some will view the TARP as saving us from another Great Depression. Others will view it as a give away to the banks and a set up for another 2008 collapse. Bill Clinton will never be able to live down what NAFTA did to this country. Neither will Obama be able to live down what TPP will do to this country.
earthshine
(1,642 posts)Historically, Obama tries to make reasonable arguments to convince others to support his positions.
But in the case of the TPP, his attitude is quite literally just take my word for it. Pay attention to his body language. Even he doesn't believe what he selling.
Remember that Hillary was for the TPP until she was against it. Under President Clinton mark II, the TPP will be back, but maybe they'll change the name of it to protect the guilty.
hedda_foil
(16,373 posts)UglyGreed
(7,661 posts)I cried when Obama won in 08 but now I cry because we are shifting more and more to a corporate fascist nation.
earthshine
(1,642 posts)By the time of his first week in office, he had already proved that he was not the change agent he campaigned to be. He gave up the public option -- with majorities in both houses -- without a fight. Just said, "We don't have the votes."
I believe that the reason that people did not come out in 2010 to support and vote for Democrats because people were so already disillusioned with Obama. (For the record I did vote in 2010.)
What's the point of having majorities if you don't use them? The opposition will say you need 60 votes for this or that. Well I didn't see Obama try to get those votes and neither did many of the other Democrats who did not come out to vote in 2010.
People deceive themselves into thinking he was playing three-dimensional chess. Is he playing chess now in burning what's left of his political capital to try and sell the TPP and foreign-worker visas?
Peace.
EndElectoral
(4,213 posts)Autumn
(45,079 posts)KelleyKramer
(8,959 posts)And that's not even counting this one (new day, new lie appears to be the plan)
See the nasty truth here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511483342
.
Autumn
(45,079 posts)jwirr
(39,215 posts)anyones right to tweak it. There will be only an up or down vote.