Math math, everyone talks about math. What if Hillary can't close out Bernie by the convention?

[Joe the Revelator]

In my opinion, she will then be unviable as a candidate. I don't know if Bernie gets the nomination, or someone like Biden, but I do know that if Hillary can't close out Bernie with pledged delegates, she won't be the nominee.

That math is harder to reconcile.

[Joe the Revelator]

1. Either way, its going to be a scorcher of a summer.

[Chan790]

2. I agree.

If a front-runner with every advantage can't close, can't lock down the nomination, then they very-likely lack the capability to win in the GE as-well and should get out of the way.

I'd like to see the nomination go to Sanders at that point, but I think a reconciliation candidate is more likely. Critically though, if Hillary can't secure the nomination with all the advantages she has had...then she cannot be the nominee. Full Stop. End of Story.

Win it clean, Clinton...or go away.

[PoliticAverse]

3. A third party like Biden stepping in if neither Sanders or Clinton gets enough votes seems like

a recipe for general election disaster.

[Joe the Revelator]

5. As does nominating a household name frontrunner who can't close out the democratic socialist.

[Kelvin Mace]

26. Biden is as bad as HRC

[Kalidurga]

4. I think Bernie will have about 40 more delegates. Yes, that is close.

But, the Supers better mind who votes for them.

[revbones]

7. At least 10% are actually lobbyists

and only beholdent o their corporate masters. Those are definitely sticking with Hillary.

[Kalidurga]

10. That could be problematic

Liberals like to investigate....

[revbones]

15. 497 are DNC ones

and 10%+ are actual lobbyists. I don't believe that number includes people like Howard Dean who are technically not registered as a lobbyist but work for lobbying companies - so he's a lobbyist in all but name.

Edited to add:

In fact, when you remove elected officials from the superdelegate pool, at least one in seven of the rest are former or current lobbyists registered on the federal and state level, according to lobbying disclosure records.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/reason-dozens-lobbyists-democratic-presidential-delegates/story?id=37289507

[Kalidurga]

22. I guess we will see what happens at the convention then.

It will not be pretty even if Bernie is ahead by a single delegate. I do think it will be more than that though. I think he wins California big for example. Netting 70% of the vote, I don't know how many of the 475 that gives him. But, I do believe that is the state that will put him over the top in delegates.

[MattP]

6. with only 2 people its impossible one of them wont have the numbers

whoever has the most normal delegates the supers need to go with and next time the supers need to go

[Joe the Revelator]

8. Is that a fact? Serious question...

I was under the impression that there was a likely scenario where neither would have enough pledged delegates.

[Kalidurga]

13. I think this is the most likely thing to happen.

However, Bernie has done better than predicted in most states. So, he might win some states with a far greater margin of 54%. I am thinking specifically each West Coast state.

[karynnj]

9. There are only two candidates who will get pledged delegates - therefore ONE of them has to get more

I wish they would stop showing the superdelegates - as they mean nothing now. Hillary Clinton is ahead, but her best region of the country was all frontloaded. The south did give her a huge lead that could be very very tough to close.

If either one gets the majority of pledged delegates, they will almost certainly be the nominee. The one exception might be if Bernie narrowly beats Hillary -- however even narrowly giving the nomination to the person who "lost" the pledged count would be a disaster.

[Joe the Revelator]

11. More yes, but I'm talking about the 'magic number'. Also, doesn't O'Malley control a small number...

...of delegates?

[morningfog]

16. The number to win is 2,383. Neither will get that by pledged delegates alone.

But since there are only two, one will by necessity get to 2,383 when the pledged and unpledged vote.

[karynnj]

19. O'Malley is unlikely to get any delegates because he was way below the limit in the states he ran in

It is hard to define the "magic" number. The official number they need to be above is based on both pledged and superdelegates. (The super delegates comprise 20% of the total. )

However, they are not "fixed" until they vote at the convention. There are two schools of thought. One - that I expressed is that the superdelegates will all go to the one who won the majority of the pledged delegates (in 2008, a large group of superdelegates - I think led by Pelosi committed to do just that - rather than endorse either.) In that case, the magic number of pledged delegates is 1 more than 50%. The other school considers that the superdelegates should be counted as they endorse and added to the pledged delegates -- then the magic number is 50% + 1 of the TOTAL delegates. (If all the superdelegates went to HRC, she would then need only around 40% of the pledged delegates.) If we are in case 2 where the superdelegates mostly stay with HRC AND Bernie surges more and ends up with say - 53% of the pledged delegates ... she wins the nomination and it will be worse than 1968.

[Matariki]

12. Why would she be unviable?

I would guess that the super delegates would mostly go to her and she would get the nomination.

[Joe the Revelator]

18. Because if she can't close out Bernie, how is she going to win the GE?

[Cleita]

20. She won't win the GE which is why people with any sense should get

behind Bernie.

[Matariki]

24. Okay. But then you would have to say the same for every candidate.

For Sanders because he also hypothetically doesn't get the magic number in the scenario you're picturing and for Biden or whoever because they are appointed not elected in the primary.

Not really following your logic.

[krawhitham]

14. With only 2 people running wouldn't it be impossible for one not to reach 2,383

[morningfog]

17. Yes. One of them will get it and it will almost

certainly be the one with the most pledged delegates.

[NCjack]

21. Bernie will be gracious and Hillary will accept #2 position on the ticket as his V.P. /nt

[RobertEarl]

23. We will challenge many delegates

And Bernie will win many challenges forcing the party to appoint other delegates that will vote for Bernie and Bernie will be our nominee.

Bernie People already showed their muscle in Chicago and shut Trump down making him go home to mommy, so you can bet we are up to the task of making sure the convention goes our way..

[bobbobbins01]

25. I think once the superdelegates realize Hillary didn't hit the magic number...

They'll start turning for Bernie. They're with her as long as she appears inevitable. Once it becomes clear that isn't the case any longer, she doesn't hold as much power over them. I think she has a lot of fair weather friends that would gleefully help bring her down the minute she shows weakness.

[revbones]

27. Remember a significant portion of those

are actual lobbyists. And then there's the party elders - many of which are lobbyist or like Howard Dean a lobbyist in all but name.

[bobbobbins01]

29. True, it really depends on how close Bernie gets...

The few that aren't completely corrupt will swing to Bernie if he's close enough, otherwise they'll stay silent. The lobbyists are staying put. I was a huge Dean supporter and it breaks my heart to hear him talk today.

[Garrett78]

34. What do you base that on?

It's my understanding that the superdelegates are primarily elected officials and former elected officials (some of whom, yes, may now work as lobbyists of one kind or another).

[revbones]

36. Here's some info. You can find more by googling

In fact, when you remove elected officials from the superdelegate pool, at least one in seven of the rest are former or current lobbyists registered on the federal and state level, according to lobbying disclosure records.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/reason-dozens-lobbyists-democratic-presidential-delegates/story?id=37289507

[Garrett78]

37. 1 in 7 and a total of 41 that have committed to Clinton.

That's not going to be the difference between winning and losing. And not all lobbyists are the same (some causes are worth lobbying for). Anyway, I highly doubt the superdelegates will be a factor this year. We'll have to see how Tuesday goes, but I don't expect we'll end up with a 2026-2025 result (or anything nearly that close). Someone will win a clear majority of the pledged delegates.

[Beacool]

28. Then it'll be like 2008.

Neither Obama nor Hillary had the sufficient pledged delegates to win the nomination outright, but Obama was ahead by a small amount of delegates (a bit over 100). For the sake of party unity, at the convention Hillary released her delegates and Obama was nominated.

If Hillary is ahead in pledged delegates, she will be the nominee.

Whether you consider her viable or not is irrelevant.

[Joe the Revelator]

32. I think her viability is highly relevant. If she can't win her own party's nomination cleanly..

...we have no chance in the GE. The GE doesn't award super delegates.

[mythology]

33. And yet you say that even if she's ahead but hasn't hit the magic number

Sanders would still be a potential candidate. Do you honestly not realize in your defined scenario, Sanders couldn't win the nomination?

Also, can we finally stop hearing from Sanders supporters that they fear Clinton "stealing" the nomination when Sanders supporters are now openly calling for Sanders to be handed it in the event he finishes second?

[Joe the Revelator]

38. I'm saying that as the frontrunner she would have severely not met expectations...

...under this scenario. Also, from what some have said above, I am wrong, there is no magic number so the scenario may be a non-starter.

[joshcryer]

35. Importantly, Obama had more delegates even with FL and MI seated.

That was the biggest stickler because while those states broke the rules, their people did vote, and their delegates had to be seated to unify the party.

[MSMITH33156]

30. Whoever has the most pledged delegates

should and will be the nominee.

[Land of Enchantment]

31. The Powers That Be

will find the next Hubert Horatio Humphrey.



OHSHIT. Being a smartass and then I found this little GEM.



Wowsers and in 1968!
BOOM!