PPP Poll: Tues Primaries Tighten

[kenn3d]

Ohio, Illinois, & Missouri Primaries tighten to toss-ups (Sanders leads in MO)
Clinton still strong in the south (FL & NC)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/PPP_March_15_Dem_Surveys.pdf

[morningfog]

1. Looking good. Go Bernie!

[Buzz Clik]

2. Interesting phrasing. Let's just show the numbers from PPP:

OH: Clinton 46, Sanders 41
IL: Clinton 48, Sanders 45
MO: Clinton 46, Sanders 47
FL: Clinton 57, Sanders 32
NC: Clinton 56, Sanders 37

[Karmadillo]

3. Accurate phrasing

[Buzz Clik]

5. Sanders leads in just 1 of 5 states, and that lead is 1%.

[pdsimdars]

10. Just remember Hillary led by 30 points in Michigan, greater than 99% chance of winning . . .

What happened there.
We'll just have to see won't we.

[Buzz Clik]

12. Sanders is now the favorite in MO and IL. A close loss by Hillary will be a victory for her.

A win in either state will be the greatest upset in the history of politics!!!!!11

[rock]

26. LOL!

Thx 4 Laff.

[Buzz Clik]

27. Psych 101: lower the expectations

[morningfog]

4. Interesting and accurate. 5 and 3 point spread,

tightened from 20-30 points just a week ago. Serious tightening.

[Buzz Clik]

7. The only thing that changed is the polling method due to Michigan.

Sanders hasn't tightened anything. His popularity among Democrats has actually decreased.

[morningfog]

9. Lol.

[Buzz Clik]

13. My response exactly. "We only lost by 10 points! Hurray! We won a state we should have won! Hurray!"

[RiverLover]

6. And now campaign mgr Mook is warning that Clinton may lose OH, MO, & IL.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/more-shocking-upsets-in-s_b_9452498.html

[Buzz Clik]

11. Information known for over a week to anyone paying attention.

However, pretending to be the massive underdog allows you to label a close loss a Victory and a narrow win a Huge Upset.

That worked in Michigan, but we're onto the game.

Bottom line: Clinton's delegate lead will widen on Tuesday to about 275.

[RiverLover]

14. Then why is 538 predicting Hillary's 98% chance of winning Ohio, a 95% chance of winning Illinois &

an 80% chance of winning Missouri?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/more-shocking-upsets-in-s_b_9452498.html

[Buzz Clik]

15. I don't know or care.

[RiverLover]

16. Well, at least that is true.

nt

[Buzz Clik]

18. You have no idea if it's true or not.

[mucifer]

23. Hillary was born and raised in Illinois. I think it is a big upset if she loses.

I never thought Bernie would win the nomination. But, you have to admit with his only superpac being a group of nurses and starting with zero name recognition to most of the USA he is doing very well and really getting his message out.

[nadinbrzezinski]

35. Thanks. I saw that last night

Internals must suck

[morningfog]

8. OH, IL and MO looking good. We need closer losses in FL and NC.

If Bernie can keep it close to even split in IL and OH, and take MO he is still looking good.

I'd like to see the losses in FL and NC closer. Hillary will take a chunk of delegates in FL at those numbers which will just put more distance between them.

Go Bernie!

[Jitter65]

17. Why would we championing the candidate Republicans favor?

They aren't going to vote for him in the GE and you know it. Independents, either. Remember, Sander is the longest standing Independent in Congress. We are being duped and it is sad.

[RiverLover]

19. Sanders beats Trump in national polls for the GE match up.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html

[kenn3d]

20. We? nt

[Gwhittey]

21. Secret Clinton meeting

[CajunBlazer]

22. Interesting - Republicans planning to vote in the Democratic primaries

Are voting overwhelming for Sanders:

OH - 56-21 for Sanders
IL - 62- 23 for Sanders
MO - 66-23 for sanders

My wife and I often vote in the Republican primaries here in AL - for their weakest candidate, the one least likely to win in the general election.

Looks like Republicans in Ohio, Illinois and Missouri plan on using the same tactic.

[mucifer]

24. Or they are crossing over the way many

democrats did for reagan.

[CajunBlazer]

28. Both the Republican and Democratic bases have been shrinking

There have been some defections on the far right for the Republicans and the far left for Democrats, but the vast majority of those leaving the two major parties are moderates in he middle. This has left the remaining Democratic Party members more liberal and those remaining in the Republican Party even more conservative.

To think that many of the registered Republicans planning to vote in Democratic primary are doing so to vote for the most liberal Democratic candidate in recent memory is absurd. Most are Republicans that don't care much which Republican candidate wins as long as the Democratic candidate is defeated. If you are a Republican thinking about Supreme Court choices, etc., its not a bad strategy.

It is easy to see why some Republicans would think that a Socialist would be the easiest Democrat to beat. This is exactly why the Koch brothers have so far spent $1.5 million on ads supporting Sanders.

It is no honor for any Democratic candidate to be the top choice among Republicans. However, at this point the Sanders campaign is so desperate for votes they can't be picky.

[mucifer]

31. I know it's anecdotal. But, I have heard of republicans leaving the repub party

and becoming strong supporters of Bernie.

[kenn3d]

25. It's easy to understand...

That a large number of Republicans are feeling quite frustrated to have essentially no valid candidate in their party to vote for. Some will certainly switch even for the primaries.

And the VAST majority of Republicans have been thoroughly trained by FOX to hate Hillary more than anyone or anything in this world. So crossovers to the Democratic ballots will largely favor Sanders.

Bernie will be the only palatable alternative to lots of them in the GE also. And their votes for him will be significant.

[CajunBlazer]

30. To think that more than a few Republicans...

...would vote for a Socialist for the right reasons is absurd. They just don't care which Republican wins, they just want to make sure that the Democrat loses. They are going to vote for Sanders for the same reason that the Koch brothers have spent $1.5 million on ads supporting Sanders.

Hey, it doesn't matter if these Republicans are trying to thrust sticks in the spokes, Sanders is going to need every vote he can get to just hang on.

[DCBob]

29. The Hillary team will be thrilled if these are the final results.

Bernie simply falls farther and farther behind.

[CajunBlazer]

32. Absolutely, virtual ties are losses when you're far behind

Hillary is virtually assured of gaining quite a few more delegates than Sanders tomorrow leaving him still further behind with even few states left to decide.

There are no winner takes all states on the Democratic side. Sanders has to start winning big or his campaign is doomed. I don't see any big wins for Sanders tomorrow. For the Sanders team it's not a matter of gaining ground tomorrow, it is a matter of not losing ground and surviving.

[DCBob]

34. Proportional allocation is the key and affects both sides.

It means Bernie cant catch up and also means Hillary cant finish him off. I looks like its going to the convention undecided with Hillary leading by a substantial amount. Then the supers will put her over the top.

[CajunBlazer]

36. I wouldn't count on that & don't Sanders supporters think SD's are "undemocratic"?

I see that suddenly Bernie and his supporters went from hating super delegates as "undemocratic" to loving them because they are the only factor which might keep Hillary from claiming the nomination before before the convention. After all, if it it weren't for the super delegates, in a two person race the person leading after the primaries and caucuses are over would automatically be the winner. With the super delegates Sanders possibly extend the race into the convention. This Sanders supporters are disingenuous when they call for rule changes only if they feel that those rule changes benefit their candidate.

So are the super delegates Sanders' new best friend? No, for two reasons:

1. Hillary can still claim the nomination before the convention. She only needs to lead in the pledged delegate count by half of the number of super delegates plus one. (Give yourself a few minutes and you will figure that out for yourself.) There are 712 super delegates so Hillary needs a lead of 357 pledged delegates when the primaries and caucuses are over. Right now Hillary leads Sanders in super delegate category by a margin of 206 and she should increase that lead today. Right now she only has to increase her lead over Sanders by 151 pledged delegates to win outright.

2. Even if she does not a lead of least than 357 pledged delegates after all of state elections are over, and the race continues on into the convention, Hillary will win on the first ballot. There is no way that more than half of the super delegates are going to vote for a non Democrat, especially one they believe would be sliced and diced by the Republican hit machine in the general election. Heck, I sincerely doubt that the super delegates would give Sanders the nomination even if he was leading in pledged delegates going in to the convention. But that isn't going to happen.

The reason isn't going to happen is because Bernie would have to start winning large states by very big margins to catch up. Virtual ties like the Sanders campaign hoping for tomorrow is just not going to get it don't.

Official Democratic Party position: "Unpledged delegates exist really to make sure that party leaders and elected officials don't have to be in a position where they are running against grass-roots activists."

It's not over yet but the fat lady has been warming up for a while.

[DCBob]

37. Yeah, I noticed that too how the Sanders team is now "Super" friendly.. funny.

I think we are in agreement regarding how this ends. Hillary has a big lead going into the convention and she wins it on the first ballot with most of the Supers voting for her. The Bernie die-hards might be angry and complain but that is how its going to go down.

[WillyT]

33. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!