Hillary will likely reach her high water mark in her lead over Bernie for pledged delegates tonight

[morningfog]

It is quite possible that tonight's haul, in which Hillary is likely to net some additional delegates in her lead over Bernie, will be the greatest her lead over Bernie ever gets. From here, Bernie is likely to start chipping away at her pledged delegates advantage, drawing ever closer to within striking distance.

The next few weeks look to be very bad for HIllary and very good for Bernie. In a sense, today's results will establish where the heart of the race is. It sets the stage for the long slog portion of the campaigns. We will know how well Bernie needs to do to catch HIllary and whether it is likely or possible.

Bernie will chip away, and chunk away at times, as we move towards the final contests of June 7, with 694 pledged delegates up for grabs, and June 14, with the final 20. Bernie will need to work the next three months to get to within a reasonable shot of closing the final gap with a decent net-win form those last 714 pledged delegates. We'll soon know how steep a hill it will be to climb.

Go Bernie!

[awake]

1. I would love it if Hillary has already hit the high water mark

Because when she sinks and we all know that she will sink I do not want her to take use down with her.

[SFnomad]

2. If Clinton's lead grows today ... it's over.

She will have a bigger pledged delegate lead over Sanders at this point (200+) than what Obama ever had over Clinton in 2008 (less than 150). Sanders could win more states than Clinton after today, but it won't be enough. His margins of victory over Clinton have not been enough to eat away appreciably at the delegate deficit.

[karynnj]

3. You can't compare elections - the order of the primaries and caucuses are very different

Super Tuesday in 2008 was designed as a Clinton firewall. 23 states including many of the biggest - CA, NY, NJ, MA etc all voted that day. It was thought that putting that many on an early date advantaged the candidate who was incredibly well known and who had very high numbers for the two years before the primary really started.

This year, note that there are states like CA that don't vote until June. What you can see, is this is not 2008 - where the candidates stayed very close to each other in pledged delegates - from the beginning until the end. The question might be whether putting almost all the Southern states where she dominates up front has led to things looking tighter than they might really be.

We won't see that tonight - but a week from today when many western states vote. Tonight, will be very important - as it will show who has the big industrial states of the north - a former Democratic stronghold, that has become less dependable (MI, OH, PA -- even when we have won, they are no longer states that we immediately say are not in play.) It also could add -- or subtract -- from Hillary's lead. Given the distribution, a small add is most likely given the huge number of delegates that FL has.

[SFnomad]

5. After today, nearly 1/2 the pledged delegates will be awarded

Sanders would have to beat Clinton in several states like Clinton did Sanders in the south for him to make up the deficit. That is not going to happen. He will win more states, but it will not be enough to make up the difference.

This is just pure delegate math. The Democrats do not have any winner take all states, if they did, then Sanders could make up the difference ... but they don't, so he won't.

[CalvinballPro]

7. Which makes me wonder if Sanders is going to try to argue that winning more states but losing...

...both the delegate count and the popular vote somehow still entitles him to be the nominee. I know that's what his supporters will try to argue.

[morningfog]

9. He has beaten her by very large margins and will continue to do so.

[SFnomad]

10. Outside of New England and Kansas ... no he hasn't.

[morningfog]

12. ...and Minnesota and Colorado. Other than those SEVEN states! lol, too fucking funny.

[SFnomad]

15. Go ahead and laugh

But I said he would have to beat her in upcoming states like she did him in the south and neither Minnesota or Colorado comes close. Outside of New England, Kansas was the closest he's done that to her and even that doesn't compare to the walloping he took in Georgia, SC, Alabama, Louisiana ....

If you think he's going to beat her elsewhere like he did in his own backyard of New England ... well, I can't help it that you're not facing reality.

[morningfog]

19. I repeat, he needs 54% of the remaining pledged delegates. Not 65-70%, not 80%.

[karynnj]

17. Absolutely and I agree that there might not be enough states with enough delegates in

which he could do that. It is clearly not a trivial thing to do -- which is why I have often prefaced comments that she is the likely nominee. However, if they split 50/50 today, it means that Sanders needs to get 55% of all the remaining pledged delegates. (Note that means HRC simply needs to get more than 45% of the remainder ... and it is likely that she does better than break even tonight.

What if he matched or bettered the 57% he got in Colorado in the other western and south western states? Here, the big prize is CA, which might not have the same liberal/libertarian feel as WA, OR etc. He likely needs a few "break out" states - maybe WA and OR - where he gets some outrageous percent (though probably not the 86% he got in VT). Not to mention, there are states like NY, NJ and PA that might favor HRC.

It is clear that it is not likely Bernie will win, but it was even less likely last May, when he entered the race, that he would be where he is at this moment. It is not over until it really is over.

I suggest that the Clinton supporters wanting to declare this over remember that HRC herself did not conced until about a month AFTER the last primary in 2008 --- when it finally was clear that the superdelegates were not going to make up the narrow loss. At least wait until she has more than half the pledged delegates!

[SFnomad]

24. She will have more than 1/2 the pledged delegates she needs after today

And what I posted was based off the OP that premised that her lead would grow today. If it does, it's over. Maybe not technically, but in reality.

[karynnj]

26. That ignores that all he would have to do is best her performance on the first half on the second

half. Obviously not an easy feat. If they split tonight, she will have gotten slightly less than 55% of the delegates in the first half. The second half looks better for Bernie than the first half with the concentration of southern states - though it does include states like NY. It would not be easy for Bernie to get 55% of the second half, but it is not completely impossible.

As Bernie said when he won VT, was that most of us who were with him "on the lake", likely never thought he would be where he is now. It was called quixotic back then -- now, the fact that consider Clinton had to mobilize her allies against Bernie and that this is not like 2000, when Gore easily ran the table, not even like 2004 when Kerry in an open nomination fight quickly won the nomination - losing just 4 states, where two (VT and NC) were won after the favorite son who won had actually dropped out. Obviously this is not as tight as 2008 -- but she KNOWS she could lose - so this is not the easy race she expected when she polled at 60 to 70% before the race started.

[SFnomad]

31. And as I've been trying to say ...

To accomplish that, he would have to beat her in some of the remaining states like she did to him in the south. That is what it took for her to get where she is at today. Also, he is not going to win any more states like he did in Vermont, it's just not going to happen. Sanders has no more backyard left.

That all means that if Clinton's lead grows today (which was the premise of the OP), Sanders will not be able to overcome it. He would either have to win every state by about 60/40 and none go to Clinton (and that won't happen) ... or he needs to get a mix of wins with some of them being like Clinton did to him in the south. And outside of his own backyard in NE, he hasn't been able to do that yet.

I understand you want him to win ... but this is delegate math, pure and simple.

[karynnj]

35. There is no disagreement between what I wrote and most of what you wrote

I said that she has the far easier path -- all she needs is 45% of the remainder. That is a lot easier than 55% of the remainder.

As to Bernie having no more states in which he could do exceedingly well - you ignore that much of the west, southwest could easily prefer Sanders -- just as Colorado did. In particular, it sounds like OR and WA might do just that.

My point is not that Bernie will win, the odds are against that. It is that it is premature to rule out the possibility at this point. Getting 55% of the remaining delegates is not an easy bar, but it is not impossible either. Given that you support the woman, who stayed in for a month after the last contest in 2008 -- when she was about 100 some pledged delegates behind - hoping magic would happen (I guess) and the superdelegates would lift her up -- they didn't. They went to Obama, who had won.

Given that, it takes chutzpah to say it is NOW delegate math that Bernie can not win. It pure and simple is not JUST math - math shows a way he could win. Just get over 55% of the remaining delegates. True, that is easier said than done, but it is not MATHEMATICALLY impossible.

[SFnomad]

36. I give up with you people

I never said there weren't states he would do exceedingly well in. I've said he is going to need to win most states and have a few states where he wipes her out (like she did to him in the south) ... or ... he needs to moderately win EVERY state after today with few or no losses. I don't believe either of those things will happen.

It's hardly "chutzpah" to talk about delegate math. Delegate math is what determine the winner. Delegate math is what beat Clinton in 2008. Clinton learned from that. And delegate math is what is going to beat Sanders in 2016.

Good luck with your candidate ... but you're going to need more than that to win the nomination.

[CorkySt.Clair]

37. "You can't compare elections"

Puhleeeeeeeeeeze Bernie fans have been comparing this campaign to 2008 for months...except when that conflicts with their narrative, apparently.

[karynnj]

38. I haven't -- and have posted the same admonition to Sanders people

Seriously, when there have been so few nomination races since the basic rules changed in 1972, the idea that we can use a former race as a guide - when the rules, the order and the types of candidates change radically each time - is pretty silly.

This is not 2008, Bernie Sanders is totally unlike Obama and even HRC is different than she was in 2008. The one thing that might be true is that HRC and her team were burned enough by 2008 that they have tried very hard not to make mistakes they made then.

[morningfog]

4. Her lead will almost certainly grow today and it will not be over.

She currently leads by 221 pledged delegates and will likely lead by another 20-30 after tonight.

He will win more states than her from here and narrow the gap. Whether he can reach and surpass her by or on June 7 is an open question.

[CalvinballPro]

6. Except Sanders needs winning margins of ridiculous proportions in order to pass Clinton

And after today, there are only maybe 2 open primary states left for independents to sway races for him. Clinton's lead among registered Democrats is not something Sanders is going to flip in the amount of time he has left, and he needs to be winning states by 65-70% to gain enough delegates to get the nomination himself.

[morningfog]

8. You are wrong. There are 6 open or semi-open primaries, first of all.

And he does not need to win by 65-80%, that's silly. Not sure where you got your math.

As of now, he needs 54% of the remaining delegates.

[CalvinballPro]

13. I said 65-70%, try to quote me correctly.

And every state that he does NOT win by 65-70% compounds the required margin for the next state.

Meanwhile, there are 7 open primary states that haven't voted yet. 4 of them vote today (IL, MO, NC, OH), which will leave only 3 between now and the end of the primary campaign (IN, ND, WI). As opposed to 25 remaining closed primary contests still yet to vote.

[morningfog]

20. No, no, no. He does not have to win 65-70%. 54% of the remaining delegates is what he needs.

Try using the real math instead of pulling it out of your ass.

Welcome back, by the way.

[morningfog]

33. Again, welcome back. Enjoy your stay!

[karynnj]

22. Morningfrog's math is correct

Your comment makes no sense as it ignores that IF he wins say exactly 55% of every remaining state - he wins. Note that assumes that ALL states are out of your 65 to 70 margin. (Intuitively consider that she win have won about 55% of all the delegates through today -- and that constitutes about a half of the delegates. If he were to do SLIGHTLY better on the second half than she did on the first half, who would be ahead?)

[thereismore]

28. Precisely, and I calculated it myself. 54.0% to tie.

[Recursion]

18. No, he needs 54% right now

If he treads water tonight he needs 55% going forward.

You really consider that "ridiculous"?



OK

[JackRiddler]

11. Sanders will win 3 to 5 states today.

The difference either way will probably be small.

[Godhumor]

14. After today Bernie will be favored in 7 of the next 8. After that...

Hillary will be favored in 5 of the next 7 (NY, PA, MD, DE, IN vs CT and RI)

Take a guess as to which block of states will grant more delegates.

One could say the closest Bernie will get to Clinton is right before NY. After that the lead goes right back up.

[Recursion]

21. Huh?

You have CT and RI as Sanders-positive?

I'm curious about your model, given that.

I'd say NY, RI, and CT are Clinton's bright spots there, MD is a toss-up, DE, and IN are basically in the bag for Sanders.

[CalvinballPro]

27. Getting Sanders' fans to accept delegate math is like asking an evangelical to accept evolution.

Good luck.

[DCBob]

16. There will be ups and downs the rest of the way.

April 26 will be a good day for Hillary where she will gain back close to her high watermark set tonight which will be around 325.

Bernie will chip away at that from May-June but will never get closer than about 280 deficit and end with Hillary up by about 300.

That wont be enough to clinch it so it will go to the convention undecided where the Supers will put her over the top.

[ucrdem]

23. LOL, Peak Hill eh?

Remember Peak Oil? That was another RW fib that crashed and, ahem, incinHERated.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. A fellow member told me would reach Peak Oil in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

[ucrdem]

34. Oh it was BIG.

And then Obama won and the pictures got smaller.

[onehandle]

30. Again? When will she stop doing that?

Answer: Never.

[morningfog]

32. I have never seen anyone claim that before.

I have seen those who claimed Bernie would only win one state though.