2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP Tweets about polling in CO, IA & NH
PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Obama's looking better in Colorado than Iowa or New Hampshire, which is actually kind of consistent with what went down those places in 2010
PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Not seeing anything in our polls tonight to suggest a big shift back toward Obama- think things will go on similar to how they have been
http://twitter.com/ppppolls
Interesting PPP says 'not seeing anything to suggest a big shift back towards Obama...similar to how they have been"
Well does that mean that Obama is leading by about as much in those states as he was when they last polled? if that is the case:
Colorado 51-45 Obama (9/23)
Iowa 51-44 (9/26)
New Hampshire 51-45 (8/14--boy it's been a long time since PPP polled NH).
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)they said that Obama had a better second day of polling than the first, so they may still be doing some polling.
BraKez2
(279 posts)came right over to see some breakdown, when will these be released? tomorrow?
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)JiminyJominy
(340 posts)Official Numbers in Iowa seem almost insurmountable for Romney.
Yet...I am getting nervous about that state.
Presidentcokedupfratboy
(1,054 posts)By that I mean don't take anything for granted. The GOP vote/election stealing machine is poised to strike.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Or he'll lose the election. He can win the election without Ohio if he takes:
CO, WI, MI, MN, NH, NM, NV and Iowa. But he needs both those states.
UrbScotty
(23,980 posts)The states Gore and Kerry both won amount to 242 electoral votes. Add in Florida's 29, and he's up to 271.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Are your calculations based on the new Electoral Vote numbers? Because the Electoral Votes of some of the states have changed since 2008.
There has been greater population growth in the red states than there has been in the blue states (with some exceptions).
But while some of the states that Obama may win this year have gained extra Electoral Votes (eg. Nevada), some like Texas, have gained more.
So when doing Electoral College calculations, it is important to specify whether they are based on the 2012 numbers, or the 2008 numbers.
UrbScotty
(23,980 posts)By comparison, the Gore/Kerry states used to be worth 248 electoral votes, and Florida used to be worth 27. Now they are 242 and 29, respectively.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)While the red states gained.
So in a close election, that can make a difference.
TEXAS has gained a number of electoral votes in recent years while CALIFORNIA has remained at 55.
NCLefty
(3,678 posts)I don't know how you guys hang on every single one
CreekDog
(46,192 posts)another glance at the state of the race, albeit some better representations of what's going on than others.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)So if the new numbers are similar we are in good shape.
UrbScotty
(23,980 posts)If he's already back to where he was then, he's in good shape.
smorkingapple
(827 posts)A lot of those gains came from disappointed Republicans and right leaning indies.
Romney's not losing those now after the 1st debate. They smell blood and now believe they can win.
This is why the 1st debate was damaging for Obama. Romney firmed up his support and it's unlikely to come down. We should not be expecting significant reversals in the polls.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)PPP is saying they aren't seeing much of a debate bump for Obama tonight, and Nate Silver seems cautious in not expecting Obama to go much higher than a (+2) National lead.
As Jeff Greenfield said today, although Obama performed well in the 2nd debate, the 1st debate may still remain the most important because it allowed Romney to increase his level of support and present him as the agent of change in this election and an alternative to Obama.
We may also not be able to get back some of the women voters who Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said went to Romney after the first debate.
We are still looking at a tighter race than we had prior to the first debate.
So that's why hard work and taking nothing for granted must be the order of the day.
smorkingapple
(827 posts)The 1st debate was just horrendous, not only from a performance standpoint but for what it allowed Romney to do, which was basically erase the entire summer and September.
Smart take from Steve Singiser from Kos on this:
This is why I don't expect much bounce from this debate, plus only 6 days until the next one.
Really wish folks here would start recognizing the reality of how damaging that 1st debate was
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Time to concede now and save everyone a lot of trouble.
That was sarcasm, by the way.
writes3000
(4,734 posts)Cosmocat
(14,575 posts)I thought at the time what it would serve to do would be pull the leaners to him. I underestimated how many there were, but I think you are right that they were his votes to have all along and are not going back.
I HOPE we continue to see some drawback toward the president, but I also don't think his great performance will be as impactful as the first debate was for Romney.
fujiyama
(15,185 posts)Either reveal the results or don't. It's one thing to say, "Hey, we have polls at XX:YY AM tomorrow. Check it out!". The way PPP is doing this is sensationalism at best.
I have come to absolutely despise twitter in terms of political discourse. It's incredibly destructive. It takes soundbite culture to a new extreme. It's an ideal outlet for lazy politicians (and useless pundits) in this era. Most of them do nothing anyways.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Many of their Tweets are unprofessional, and they get very upset if you question their results and will often block people who do.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)annoying than the wingnuts... don't blame them.
fujiyama
(15,185 posts)but there's so much polling going on now that it's difficult to even know who's professional and who's a biased or partisan hack. How do you separate the wheat from the chaff?
Much of it corresponds with the rise of the internet as a news source and the media's need to push the horse race narrative. But part of it is also this obvious and evident need for so many of us to get something to quantitatively assess how our side is doing. I don't remember any electoral vote projection sites in '00, but the internet, at least in terms of political coverage was really in its infancy. I know electoral-vote.com and a few others were around in '04. I don't remember when RCP got its start. And then of course, there was Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight, four years ago.
FVZA_Colonel
(4,096 posts)if they haven't changed (or, say, expanded by just one point), then that's still reason to be cautiously optimistic.
imgbitepolitic
(179 posts)its the status quo, and since obama has been up in all those polls, it means he is still up.
Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)The fact that it mentions there's been no swing back towards Obama suggests that Romney's boost is alive and well. Reading between the lines, an Obama lead of 1 - 3% would be a fantastic result in these polls.