Math: How many superdelegates would have to switch sides to neutralize Hillary's advantage?

[Cheese Sandwich]

How many superdelegates would have to switch sides to neutralize Hillary's advantage with superdelegates?

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There are 712 total superdelegates.

A candidate would need 356 for half the superdelegates. This would neutralize the effect of superdelegates because each candidate would have the same amount.

26 are currently for Sanders.

467 are currently for Clinton.

245 still on the table.

(source)
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To be overly simple, let's assume all 245 uncommitteds go to Bernie.

So then we would have

26 + 245 = 271.

356-271 = 85. So in that scenario, only 85 superdelegates would have to switch sides in order to completely neutralize Hillary's current advantage with superdelegates.

It's not at all hard to imagine 85 or even 150 superdelegates switching sides if Bernie came into the convention with a lead in popular delegates. He's not likely to pick up all 245 supers that are still on the table, but it's worth considering this as a baseline number. And also it's possible those 245 supers are not super comfortable with the idea of Clinton because otherwise they might have already endorsed her.

We have learned from previous math (Math1 | piechart) that Bernie is still the underdog, but he he could still win if he does well in the next couple weeks and changes the national momentum. He would need to win about 58% of remaining pledged delegates from here on out in order to roll into the convention with at least 2026 pledged delegates, which would put him in the lead for pledged delegates, which would position him well to pick up the needed superdelegates in the time between the last primary and the convention.

The importance of Hillary's superdelegate advantage is being exaggerated by the Clinton campaign and by the media. That lead could fall apart pretty quickly if Bernie reached 2026 pledged delegates.

tldr: about a 100

[Kalidurga]

1. Yeah they keep saying math

as if you can add up votes that have not yet been cast. Unless of course they have already cast those votes and are just waiting to drag out the stuffed ballot boxes until the appropriate date.

[Cheese Sandwich]

5. There's clearly a goal of making HRC seem inevitable

Now they're actually just saying it outright.

If they waited a month more, it might have been true, but as of today we still have a narrow path open.

[DeadEyeDyck]

2. Super delegates are so antidemocratic.

[

[Cheese Sandwich]

6. That's true but so far they have always switched sides to match the winner of the election

Superdelegates have never actually overturned the result of the pledged delegates before and I doubt they would start that this year. But they could.

[griffi94]

3. Math: How many superdelegates would have to switch sides to neutralize Hillary's advantage?

A lot more than are going to.
Superdelegates aren't going to save him.

[Firebrand Gary]

4. The north east is coming.

Hillary will likely have a delegate lead so vast that the super delegates will not matter.