2016 Postmortem

bigtree

(85,996 posts) Sun Mar 20, 2016, 09:43 PM Mar 2016

New poll: most Bernie Sanders supporters will vote for Hillary Clinton if she’s the nominee

Molly ?@Plantflowes 1h1 hour ago
New poll: most Bernie Sanders supporters will vote for Hillary Clinton if she’s the nominee

Now that Hillary Clinton is firmly on track to be the 2016 democratic nominee, as her opponent Bernie Sanders has fallen millions of votes behind, it’s fair to ask how many or few Bernie fans will vote for Hillary in the general election. In headlines that were likely intended to scare people, various news outlets have pointed to data this month that says one-third of Bernie’s supporters will refuse to vote for Hillary Clinton. But when you do the actual math on this, it’s great news for Hillary.

Thus far in popular voting, Bernie Sanders has received about 41% of the total vote (source: RealClearPolitics). Of that 41%, just one-third of them say they’ll refuse to vote for Hillary if she’s the nominee. That means just 13.7% of all the people voting in the democratic primary are planning to shun Hillary in the general election. The other 86.3% of the combined Hillary-Bernie base will vote for her. Throw in the democrats who didn’t vote in this primary because they don’t have a preference and simply plan to vote for the democratic nominee no matter what, and the actual number is likely higher than 86%.

And even that number is likely suppressed right now by the high emotions involved in this point in primary season. Many of Bernie’s supporters still believe he might somehow be able to make a comeback and win the nomination, and as part of that defiant mindset, they’re more inclined to tell pollsters that they’d never vote for Hillary. Once primary season passes and everyone is reminded of what the final two choices are, more of Bernie’s democratic fans will come around. Throw in the fact that one in four republicans now say they’ll vote for Hillary over Donald Trump, and her base is even broader.

These new numbers shouldn’t come as a surprise. Back in October I studied second-choice polling data, and it told me that most Bernie Sanders supporters were inclined to get behind Hillary Clinton if she won the nomination. So this new poll from the Wall Street Journal falls right in line with the trend all along. The Bernie fans screaming right now about how they’ll refuse to support Hillary are clearly a small minority who appear larger than they are, due to the volume of their shouting.

In total, Hillary Clinton has a phenomenal level of support from those participating in the democratic primary. Three-fifths of them are already firmly in her column, and even two-thirds of those currently voting against her are already telling pollsters they’ll get behind her if they have to. Numbers never lie, but headlines often do. Don’t let the scare tactics fool you: Hillary has broad backing from the left, and the new poll numbers prove it.

read: http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/new-poll-says-86-of-bernie-sanders-supporters-will-vote-for-hillary-clinton-if-shes-the-nominee/24192/