2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAfter tomorrow's voting, what will be the delegate spread?
Clinton 1143 (58%)
Sanders 836 (42%)
In overall delegates, Clinton holds a 720-delegate lead over Sanders
Clinton 1579 (65%)
Sanders 859 (35%)
Clinton needs to win 35% of remaining delegates to hit 2383 magic number
Sanders needs to win 65% of remaining delegates to hit 2383 magic number
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-gop-establishment-s-big-choice-about-trump-n542511
Arizona: closed Primary (75 delegates)
Utah: open Caucus (33 delegates)
Idaho: open Caucus (15 delegates)
My predictions: Arizona 55/45 Clinton, Utah 53/47 Sanders, Idaho 60/40 Sanders
Clinton +2
7 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited | |
Clinton will INCREASE her lead over Sanders | |
5 (71%) |
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Sanders will DECREASE Clinton's lead | |
2 (29%) |
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No change | |
0 (0%) |
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0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided. | |
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Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll |
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)jcgoldie
(11,657 posts)Those are the pledged delegate totals after all were finally assigned from last Tuesday. She needs 854 (42%) to hit 2026 which would be 50% pledged delegates.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Otherwise, Barack Obama could have NEVER claimed victory on June 3, 2008.
Remember, Hillary Clinton recognized he had hit the magic number because of those super delegates and gracefully bowed out on June 5, then she endorsed him on June 7.
jcgoldie
(11,657 posts)But they can always change their minds as several did in 2008 leaving HRC for Obama. So for the sake of figuring out how close to clinching the nomination she is I think it's more useful to just look at pledged delegates. If she gets 2026 (50%) then there is no argument for supers to change their allegiance. Sure she could win it with less than 50% pledged with her large super-delegate advantage, but it would be a lot dicier and Sanders would have a case that the voters had picked him making unifying the party much more difficult. In the end I don't think it will matter as she's well on her way to winning a majority of pledged delegates.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)They did so AFTER Hillary Clinton conceded and endorsed.
jcgoldie
(11,657 posts)...won a plurality of pledged delegates, you don't think the superdelegates would follow the democratic choice? I think you are wrong. I think its an academic argument because theres almost no chance he can catch up, but if he did I think it would be a complete mess if supers swung it for her.
rock
(13,218 posts)I suppose it's possible that Sanders could shrink the percentage, nevertheless.
brooklynite
(94,950 posts)rock
(13,218 posts)Let's say
Before:
Clinton 1200 60%
Sanders 800 40%
After
123 votes are spread C+62 S+61
So by absolute numbers Clinton picks up +2
But her new percent 59.3 (if I did my math right)
I assumed for the poll you mean absolute numbers.
jcgoldie
(11,657 posts)Is the percentage of delegates going forward that Sanders needs to win (currently 58%)... that number should continue to rise as he falls short of it state by state even if he wins several states in a row.
rock
(13,218 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)pledged delegates will be allocated.
What will the spread be when all the dust settles after tomorrow's vote and allocations? I think HIllary will still be up 300+, but less than 324.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)I am saying, they aren't actually pledged until the Democrats Abroad convention in May.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Maybe not literally, but not more than a 3 or 4 net delegate change.
hill2016
(1,772 posts)+/- 3 to 5 in either direction
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)'It's the Math!!!!'
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Sort of close on Arizona 57.8% to 39.7%.
Not even close on the other two contests. It's almost as if the West is a mystery in some trad quarters of the country....