Even if Romney wins Michigan and Arizona its not over.

[DCBob]

form WaPO..

DETROIT — For the past week, much of the commentary on the Republican presidential race has focused on the consequences to Mitt Romney of a loss in Michigan’s primary. After Wednesday’s Arizona debate, the question should be: What happens if the former Massachusetts governor wins his home state Tuesday?

-snip-

How much would a pair of victories be worth? Republican strategists say that while they would restore Romney to the status of front-runner in the GOP race, victories in Michigan and Arizona could still leave the party looking at a long nomination battle. Nor, they say, would two wins Tuesday be enough to resolve many of the doubts that still surround Romney.

-snip-

“I think he would remain in the driver’s seat if he wins, but this campaign season has seemed to be momentum-proof, so [victories next week] will only last until Super Tuesday, when he will need another strong showing,” said Mike DuHaime, a Republican strategist and adviser to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. “Given his background in Michigan and his family roots, he is expected to do well, which sometimes limits the momentum, as we saw after a convincing win in New Hampshire.”

Even if he were to win Michigan and Arizona, Romney faces a difficult landscape on Super Tuesday. A victory in Michigan would boost his prospects in Ohio, but Santorum, from neighboring Pennsylvania, is a serious threat there. Newt Gingrich is focused on Georgia, the state he represented in Congress. Tennessee and Oklahoma are more than problematic for Romney, given their conservative electorates.

more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/what-happens-if-mitt-romney-wins-michigan/2012/02/23/gIQA0BDbVR_story.html

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Even if Romney wins MI and AZ, Super Tuesday will probably still be mixed with all three candidates each winning some states. However, I suspect Romney will do fairly well on S.T. and that will be the beginnining of the end of this clown show. Too bad.

[Alexander]

1. It's far from over, but a loss for Romney in Michigan would be devastating

And would probably be the beginning of the end of his campaign.

[DCBob]

2. If he loses Michigan it would devastating.

He would start losing support from the Republican establishment.

[customerserviceguy]

4. Their panic would be a joyous thing to watch

They've all got their fingers crossed that Santorum has flapped his gums too much, both about goofy-ass culture war nonsense and his lousy performance in last night's debate. I suspect that's not going to sway his core voters, they already distrust Mitt, and they loathe Noot.

[customerserviceguy]

3. While Santorum would dearly love to win Michigan and Arizona

what he really stands to win a week later is seeing Noot leave the race in disgrace. If Romney can beat the Grinch in Georgia on Super Tuesday, and Noot comes in a poor third in the other Southern states where he's on the ballot, he's finished. That clown in Nevada who's backing him probably knows when to stop betting on a loser, and once the Super-PAC plug is pulled, Newtie is adrift, probably getting less than Ron Paul in future contests.

I really can't see Romney winning any more than Massachusetts and Virginia, and that's only if Noot and Ricky don't tell their supporters to vote Paul just to screw with Mittens in the latter state.

[Mr.Turnip]

5. Vermont, maybe Idaho because Mormons.

but Idaho is a maybe. last OH poll I saw had Santo near 50 there, that would be hard to over come for Romney.

his only chance in the southern states is massive vote splitting between Santo and Newt.

And MI is still an if, the number of undecideds has gotten low there, Romney has to hope that his debate was good enough to peel off a bit of support from Santorum, or maybe that Gingrich's was good enough to do the same.

And Santorum has consistently outdone his poll numbers, in some states like SC and CO he did so by 7 and 10 points respectively same with MN.

Paul tends to get a bit higher than his poll numbers too, while Romney and Gingrich seem to get lower.

o and while it's not for nearly 2 months Santorum is + 30 in PA right now.

[Major Hogwash]

8. Romney has Idaho in the bag.

When Santorum came here last week in the middle of the week, he only drew about 1300 people to his meeting. More people than that showed up for the basketball game on Friday night held at the same high school.

Then Ron Paul was here on Saturday and he got about twice that many people to show up to gawk at him. It was a pretty big crowd yet I don't think they had ever seen a Klown that old on stage before. Paul didn't bother to wear a suit to the event which meant that even he wasn't taking his appearence here serious.

Romney is still way ahead of both of them in the polls, though.
He came here on Friday and stayed about an hour before jetting off.
I guess he didn't want to overstay his visit.

Gingrich is coming here sometime this week, so that means that we're going to have had the whole Klown Kar show come to Idaho this year.
Gingrich is just wasting his time, but since someone else is paying for the trip, he's going to come clear out here anyway.

[Mr.Turnip]

9. Haven't seen any idaho polls.

[customerserviceguy]

11. Idaho does have a lot of Mormons

but so does Arizona, and we'll see how that goes for Ricky. I do see that Santorum has worked Idaho, and there are loads of folks out there who would have seen news coverage, even if they didn't want to drive a few hours to get to a rally.

[DCBob]

10. Not sure Gingrich will drop out anytime soon.

I think he's going to hang on till the bitter end... even if his billionaire bails on him.

[Major Hogwash]

6. Romney is ahead in both states, but it is still pretty close considering the other choices.

It surprises me that Romney has been stumbling along so much, almost as if he isn't sure of himself anymore.

He kicked Santorum pretty bad in the debate last night, but he still hasn't gotten much of a lead for it.

[Mr.Turnip]

7. actually.

No post debate poll of MI has been released yet.

Other than in 2 polls which had Romney +2 Santorum has lead in pretty much every MI poll by margins of 3-5 from Sunday to Thursday.

Romney is ahead in Arizona though.

[KharmaTrain]

12. It'll Boil Down To The Super Delegates...

What is rarely mentioned is that the delegates selected in the caucuses and primaries are a minority of the overall delegates. It's the "party regulars" that will get the ultimate say here. So far many of those delegates haven't committed and many may remain uncommitted until the convention, then throw their support to Rmoney to put him over the top. The problem for the "movement conservatives" is they didn't fall behind one candidate and then there are the Paulbots who is taking delegates away from Rectorum and Noooooot and not Millard.

While Citizens United can keep candidates alive longer in the primaries its still not a done deal on how much affect they'll have on the convention and thus even if Mittens loses Michigan and/or Arizona, he'll still gain delegates and will probably walk into the convention with the most delegates...

[quaker bill]

13. What does Santorum do for an encore?

All the polls indicate he will either win, or more likely finish a close second in the tuesday contests. From this result, he will understand that he either needs to step it up a notch or stand down. His comments of late have gotten alot of attention for being well out of the mainstream. What does Rikki sound like when he becomes more desperate to impress? It could get really colorful from here on in.